Bayes with No Shame: Admissibility Geometries of Predictive Inference

Four distinct admissibility geometries govern sequential and distribution-free inference: Blackwell risk dominance over convex risk sets, anytime-valid admissibility within the nonnegative supermartingale cone, marginal coverage validity over exchangeable prediction sets, and Cesàro approachability (CAA) admissibility, which reaches the risk-set boundary via approachability-style arguments rather than explicit priors. We prove a criterion separation theorem: the four classes of admissible procedures are pairwise non-nested. Each geometry carries a different certificate of optimality: a supporting-hyperplane prior (Blackwell), a nonnegative supermartingale (anytime-valid), an exchangeability rank (coverage), or a Cesàro steering argument (CAA). Martingale coherence is necessary for Blackwell admissibility and necessary and sufficient for anytime-valid admissibility within e-processes, but is not sufficient for Blackwell admissibility and is not necessary for coverage validity or CAA-admissibility. All four criteria share a common optimization template (minimize Bayesian risk subject to a feasibility constraint), but the constraint sets operate over different spaces, partial orders, and performance metrics, making them geometrically incompatible. Admissibility is irreducibly criterion-relative.

Fisher-Geometric Diffusion in Stochastic Gradient Descent: Optimal Rates, Oracle Complexity, and Information-Theoretic Limits

We develop a Fisher-geometric theory of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in which mini-batch noise is an intrinsic, loss-induced matrix -- not an exogenous scalar variance. Under exchangeable sampling, the mini-batch gradient covariance is pinned down (to leading order) by the projected covariance of per-sample gradients: it equals projected Fisher information for well-specified likelihood losses and the projected Godambe (sandwich) matrix for general M-estimation losses. This identification forces a diffusion approximation with Fisher/Godambe-structured volatility (effective temperature tau = eta/b) and yields an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck linearization whose stationary covariance is given in closed form by a Fisher-Lyapunov equation. Building on this geometry, we prove matching minimax upper and lower bounds of order Theta(1/N) for Fisher/Godambe risk under a total oracle budget N; the lower bound holds under a martingale oracle condition (bounded predictable quadratic variation), strictly subsuming i.i.d. and exchangeable sampling. These results imply oracle-complexity guarantees for epsilon-stationarity in the Fisher dual norm that depend on an intrinsic effective dimension and a Fisher/Godambe condition number rather than ambient dimension or Euclidean conditioning. Experiments confirm the Lyapunov predictions and show that scalar temperature matching cannot reproduce directional noise structure.