TS-MULE: Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations for Time Series Forecast Models

Time series forecasting is a demanding task ranging from weather to failure forecasting with black-box models achieving state-of-the-art performances. However, understanding and debugging are not guaranteed. We propose TS-MULE, a local surrogate model explanation method specialized for time series extending the LIME approach. Our extended LIME works with various ways to segment and perturb the time series data. In our extension, we present six sampling segmentation approaches for time series to improve the quality of surrogate attributions and demonstrate their performances on three deep learning model architectures and three common multivariate time series datasets.

MultiSegVA: Using Visual Analytics to Segment Biologging Time Series on Multiple Scales

Segmenting biologging time series of animals on multiple temporal scales is an essential step that requires complex techniques with careful parameterization and possibly cross-domain expertise. Yet, there is a lack of visual-interactive tools that strongly support such multi-scale segmentation. To close this gap, we present our MultiSegVA platform for interactively defining segmentation techniques and parameters on multiple temporal scales. MultiSegVA primarily contributes tailored, visual-interactive means and visual analytics paradigms for segmenting unlabeled time series on multiple scales. Further, to flexibly compose the multi-scale segmentation, the platform contributes a new visual query language that links a variety of segmentation techniques. To illustrate our approach, we present a domain-oriented set of segmentation techniques derived in collaboration with movement ecologists. We demonstrate the applicability and usefulness of MultiSegVA in two real-world use cases from movement ecology, related to behavior analysis after environment-aware segmentation, and after progressive clustering. Expert feedback from movement ecologists shows the effectiveness of tailored visual-interactive means and visual analytics paradigms at segmenting multi-scale data, enabling them to perform semantically meaningful analyses. A third use case demonstrates that MultiSegVA is generalizable to other domains.