Dynamic optimization with side information

We present a data-driven framework for incorporating side information in dynamic optimization under uncertainty. Specifically, our approach uses predictive machine learning methods (such as k-nearest neighbors, kernel regression, and random forests) to weight the relative importance of various data-driven uncertainty sets in a robust optimization formulation. Through a novel measure concentration result for local machine learning methods, we prove that the proposed framework is asymptotically optimal for stochastic dynamic optimization with covariates. We also describe a general-purpose approximation for the proposed framework, based on overlapping linear decision rules, which is computationally tractable and produces high-quality solutions for dynamic problems with many stages. Across a variety of examples in shipment planning, inventory management, and finance, our method achieves improvements of up to 15% over alternatives and requires less than one minute of computation time on problems with twelve stages.

From Predictions to Prescriptions in Multistage Optimization Problems

In this paper, we introduce a framework for solving finite-horizon multistage optimization problems under uncertainty in the presence of auxiliary data. We assume the joint distribution of the uncertain quantities is unknown, but noisy observations, along with observations of auxiliary covariates, are available. We utilize effective predictive methods from machine learning (ML), including $k$-nearest neighbors regression ($k$NN), classification and regression trees (CART), and random forests (RF), to develop specific methods that are applicable to a wide variety of problems. We demonstrate that our solution methods are asymptotically optimal under mild conditions. Additionally, we establish finite sample guarantees for the optimality of our method with $k$NN weight functions. Finally, we demonstrate the practicality of our approach with computational examples. We see a significant decrease in cost by taking into account the auxiliary data in the multistage setting.

Optimization over Continuous and Multi-dimensional Decisions with Observational Data

We consider the optimization of an uncertain objective over continuous and multi-dimensional decision spaces in problems in which we are only provided with observational data. We propose a novel algorithmic framework that is tractable, asymptotically consistent, and superior to comparable methods on example problems. Our approach leverages predictive machine learning methods and incorporates information on the uncertainty of the predicted outcomes for the purpose of prescribing decisions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on examples involving both synthetic and real data sets.