Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterise uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions. In this perspective piece we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions --- that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes (GPs) and autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided.

Rethinking multiscale cardiac electrophysiology with machine learning and predictive modelling

We review some of the latest approaches to analysing cardiac electrophysiology data using machine learning and predictive modelling. Cardiac arrhythmias, particularly atrial fibrillation, are a major global healthcare challenge. Treatment is often through catheter ablation, which involves the targeted localized destruction of regions of the myocardium responsible for initiating or perpetuating the arrhythmia. Ablation targets are either anatomically defined, or identified based on their functional properties as determined through the analysis of contact intracardiac electrograms acquired with increasing spatial density by modern electroanatomic mapping systems. While numerous quantitative approaches have been investigated over the past decades for identifying these critical curative sites, few have provided a reliable and reproducible advance in success rates. Machine learning techniques, including recent deep-learning approaches, offer a potential route to gaining new insight from this wealth of highly complex spatio-temporal information that existing methods struggle to analyse. Coupled with predictive modelling, these techniques offer exciting opportunities to advance the field and produce more accurate diagnoses and robust personalised treatment. We outline some of these methods and illustrate their use in making predictions from the contact electrogram and augmenting predictive modelling tools, both by more rapidly predicting future states of the system and by inferring the parameters of these models from experimental observations.