Synthetic Survival Data Generation for Heart Failure Prognosis Using Deep Generative Models

Background: Heart failure (HF) research is constrained by limited access to large, shareable datasets due to privacy regulations and institutional barriers. Synthetic data generation offers a promising solution to overcome these challenges while preserving patient confidentiality. Methods: We generated synthetic HF datasets from institutional data comprising 12,552 unique patients using five deep learning models: tabular variational autoencoder (TVAE), normalizing flow, ADSGAN, SurvivalGAN, and tabular denoising diffusion probabilistic models (TabDDPM). We comprehensively evaluated synthetic data utility through statistical similarity metrics, survival prediction using machine learning and privacy assessments. Results: SurvivalGAN and TabDDPM demonstrated high fidelity to the original dataset, exhibiting similar variable distributions and survival curves after applying histogram equalization. SurvivalGAN (C-indices: 0.71-0.76) and TVAE (C-indices: 0.73-0.76) achieved the strongest performance in survival prediction evaluation, closely matched real data performance (C-indices: 0.73-0.76). Privacy evaluation confirmed protection against re-identification attacks. Conclusions: Deep learning-based synthetic data generation can produce high-fidelity, privacy-preserving HF datasets suitable for research applications. This publicly available synthetic dataset addresses critical data sharing barriers and provides a valuable resource for advancing HF research and predictive modeling.

Uncertainty quantification for improving radiomic-based models in radiation pneumonitis prediction

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

ICTSurF: Implicit Continuous-Time Survival Functions with Neural Networks

Survival analysis is a widely known method for predicting the likelihood of an event over time. The challenge of dealing with censored samples still remains. Traditional methods, such as the Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model, hinge on the limitations due to the strong assumptions of proportional hazards and the predetermined relationships between covariates. The rise of models based on deep neural networks (DNNs) has demonstrated enhanced effectiveness in survival analysis. This research introduces the Implicit Continuous-Time Survival Function (ICTSurF), built on a continuous-time survival model, and constructs survival distribution through implicit representation. As a result, our method is capable of accepting inputs in continuous-time space and producing survival probabilities in continuous-time space, independent of neural network architecture. Comparative assessments with existing methods underscore the high competitiveness of our proposed approach. Our implementation of ICTSurF is available at https://github.com/44REAM/ICTSurF.