Direct Learning of Calibration-Aware Uncertainty for Neural PDE Surrogates

Neural PDE surrogates are often deployed in data-limited or partially observed regimes where downstream decisions depend on calibrated uncertainty in addition to low prediction error. Existing approaches obtain uncertainty through ensemble replication, fixed stochastic noise such as dropout, or post hoc calibration. Cross-regularized uncertainty learns uncertainty parameters during training using gradients routed through a held-out regularization split. The predictor is optimized on the training split for fit, while low-dimensional uncertainty controls are optimized on the regularization split to reduce train-test mismatch, yielding regime-adaptive uncertainty without per-regime noise tuning. The framework can learn continuous noise levels at the output head, within hidden features, or within operator-specific components such as spectral modes. We instantiate the approach in Fourier Neural Operators and evaluate on APEBench sweeps over observed fraction and training-set size. Across these sweeps, the learned predictive distributions are better calibrated on held-out splits and the resulting uncertainty fields concentrate in high-error regions in one-step spatial diagnostics.

Twin-Boot: Uncertainty-Aware Optimization via Online Two-Sample Bootstrapping

Standard gradient descent methods yield point estimates with no measure of confidence. This limitation is acute in overparameterized and low-data regimes, where models have many parameters relative to available data and can easily overfit. Bootstrapping is a classical statistical framework for uncertainty estimation based on resampling, but naively applying it to deep learning is impractical: it requires training many replicas, produces post-hoc estimates that cannot guide learning, and implicitly assumes comparable optima across runs - an assumption that fails in non-convex landscapes. We introduce Twin-Bootstrap Gradient Descent (Twin-Boot), a resampling-based training procedure that integrates uncertainty estimation into optimization. Two identical models are trained in parallel on independent bootstrap samples, and a periodic mean-reset keeps both trajectories in the same basin so that their divergence reflects local (within-basin) uncertainty. During training, we use this estimate to sample weights in an adaptive, data-driven way, providing regularization that favors flatter solutions. In deep neural networks and complex high-dimensional inverse problems, the approach improves calibration and generalization and yields interpretable uncertainty maps.

Cross-regularization: Adaptive Model Complexity through Validation Gradients

Model regularization requires extensive manual tuning to balance complexity against overfitting. Cross-regularization resolves this tradeoff by directly adapting regularization parameters through validation gradients during training. The method splits parameter optimization - training data guides feature learning while validation data shapes complexity controls - converging provably to cross-validation optima. When implemented through noise injection in neural networks, this approach reveals striking patterns: unexpectedly high noise tolerance and architecture-specific regularization that emerges organically during training. Beyond complexity control, the framework integrates seamlessly with data augmentation, uncertainty calibration and growing datasets while maintaining single-run efficiency through a simple gradient-based approach.

Geometric-Aware Variational Inference: Robust and Adaptive Regularization with Directional Weight Uncertainty

Deep neural networks require principled uncertainty quantification, yet existing variational inference methods often employ isotropic Gaussian approximations in weight space that poorly match the network's inherent geometry. We address this mismatch by introducing Concentration-Adapted Perturbations (CAP), a variational framework that models weight uncertainties directly on the unit hypersphere using von Mises-Fisher distributions. Building on recent work in radial-directional posterior decompositions and spherical weight constraints, CAP provides the first complete theoretical framework connecting directional statistics to practical noise regularization in neural networks. Our key contribution is an analytical derivation linking vMF concentration parameters to activation noise variance, enabling each layer to learn its optimal uncertainty level through a novel closed-form KL divergence regularizer. In experiments on CIFAR-10, CAP significantly improves model calibration - reducing Expected Calibration Error by 5.6x - while providing interpretable layer-wise uncertainty profiles. CAP requires minimal computational overhead and integrates seamlessly into standard architectures, offering a theoretically grounded yet practical approach to uncertainty quantification in deep learning.

World Models as Reference Trajectories for Rapid Motor Adaptation

Deploying learned control policies in real-world environments poses a fundamental challenge. When system dynamics change unexpectedly, performance degrades until models are retrained on new data. We introduce Reflexive World Models (RWM), a dual control framework that uses world model predictions as implicit reference trajectories for rapid adaptation. Our method separates the control problem into long-term reward maximization through reinforcement learning and robust motor execution through rapid latent control. This dual architecture achieves significantly faster adaptation with low online computational cost compared to model-based RL baselines, while maintaining near-optimal performance. The approach combines the benefits of flexible policy learning through reinforcement learning with rapid error correction capabilities, providing a principled approach to maintaining performance in high-dimensional continuous control tasks under varying dynamics.