A Strategic Framework for Optimal Decisions in Football 1-vs-1 Shot-Taking Situations: An Integrated Approach of Machine Learning, Theory-Based Modeling, and Game Theory

Complex interactions between two opposing agents frequently occur in domains of machine learning, game theory, and other application domains. Quantitatively analyzing the strategies involved can provide an objective basis for decision-making. One such critical scenario is shot-taking in football, where decisions, such as whether the attacker should shoot or pass the ball and whether the defender should attempt to block the shot, play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. However, there are currently no effective data-driven and/or theory-based approaches to analyzing such situations. To address this issue, we proposed a novel framework to analyze such scenarios based on game theory, where we estimate the expected payoff with machine learning (ML) models, and additional features for ML models were extracted with a theory-based shot block model. Conventionally, successes or failures (1 or 0) are used as payoffs, while a success shot (goal) is extremely rare in football. Therefore, we proposed the Expected Probability of Shot On Target (xSOT) metric to evaluate players' actions even if the shot results in no goal; this allows for effective differentiation and comparison between different shots and even enables counterfactual shot situation analysis. In our experiments, we have validated the framework by comparing it with baseline and ablated models. Furthermore, we have observed a high correlation between the xSOT and existing metrics. This alignment of information suggests that xSOT provides valuable insights. Lastly, as an illustration, we studied optimal strategies in the World Cup 2022 and analyzed a shot situation in EURO 2020.

Transformer-Based Neural Marked Spatio Temporal Point Process Model for Football Match Events Analysis

With recently available football match event data that record the details of football matches, analysts and researchers have a great opportunity to develop new performance metrics, gain insight, and evaluate key performance. However, most sports sequential events modeling methods and performance metrics approaches could be incomprehensive in dealing with such large-scale spatiotemporal data (in particular, temporal process), thereby necessitating a more comprehensive spatiotemporal model and a holistic performance metric. To this end, we proposed the Transformer-Based Neural Marked Spatio Temporal Point Process (NMSTPP) model for football event data based on the neural temporal point processes (NTPP) framework. In the experiments, our model outperformed the prediction performance of the baseline models. Furthermore, we proposed the holistic possession utilization score (HPUS) metric for a more comprehensive football possession analysis. For verification, we examined the relationship with football teams' final ranking, average goal score, and average xG over a season. It was observed that the average HPUS showed significant correlations regardless of not using goal and details of shot information. Furthermore, we show HPUS examples in analyzing possessions, matches, and between matches.