Modeling Complex Disease Trajectories using Deep Generative Models with Semi-Supervised Latent Processes

In this paper, we propose a deep generative time series approach using latent temporal processes for modeling and holistically analyzing complex disease trajectories. We aim to find meaningful temporal latent representations of an underlying generative process that explain the observed disease trajectories in an interpretable and comprehensive way. To enhance the interpretability of these latent temporal processes, we develop a semi-supervised approach for disentangling the latent space using established medical concepts. By combining the generative approach with medical knowledge, we leverage the ability to discover novel aspects of the disease while integrating medical concepts into the model. We show that the learned temporal latent processes can be utilized for further data analysis and clinical hypothesis testing, including finding similar patients and clustering the disease into new sub-types. Moreover, our method enables personalized online monitoring and prediction of multivariate time series including uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in modeling systemic sclerosis, showcasing the potential of our machine learning model to capture complex disease trajectories and acquire new medical knowledge.

Modular Clinical Decision Support Networks (MoDN) -- Updatable, Interpretable, and Portable Predictions for Evolving Clinical Environments

Data-driven Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) have the potential to improve and standardise care with personalised probabilistic guidance. However, the size of data required necessitates collaborative learning from analogous CDSS's, which are often unsharable or imperfectly interoperable (IIO), meaning their feature sets are not perfectly overlapping. We propose Modular Clinical Decision Support Networks (MoDN) which allow flexible, privacy-preserving learning across IIO datasets, while providing interpretable, continuous predictive feedback to the clinician. MoDN is a novel decision tree composed of feature-specific neural network modules. It creates dynamic personalised representations of patients, and can make multiple predictions of diagnoses, updatable at each step of a consultation. The modular design allows it to compartmentalise training updates to specific features and collaboratively learn between IIO datasets without sharing any data.