Universal Event Detection in Time Series

In our previously published work, we introduced a supervised deep learning method for event detection in multivariate time series data, employing regression instead of binary classification. This simplification avoids the need for point-wise labels throughout the entire dataset, relying solely on ground truth events defined as time points or intervals. In this paper, we establish mathematically that our method is universal, and capable of detecting any type of event with arbitrary precision under mild continuity assumptions on the time series. These events may encompass change points, frauds, anomalies, physical occurrences, and more. We substantiate our theoretical results using the universal approximation theorem for feed-forward neural networks (FFN). Additionally, we provide empirical validations that confirm our claims, demonstrating that our method, with a limited number of parameters, outperforms other deep learning approaches, particularly for rare events and imbalanced datasets from different domains.

A Comprehensive Python Library for Deep Learning-Based Event Detection in Multivariate Time Series Data and Information Retrieval in NLP

Event detection in time series data is crucial in various domains, including finance, healthcare, cybersecurity, and science. Accurately identifying events in time series data is vital for making informed decisions, detecting anomalies, and predicting future trends. Despite extensive research exploring diverse methods for event detection in time series, with deep learning approaches being among the most advanced, there is still room for improvement and innovation in this field. In this paper, we present a new deep learning supervised method for detecting events in multivariate time series data. Our method combines four distinct novelties compared to existing deep-learning supervised methods. Firstly, it is based on regression instead of binary classification. Secondly, it does not require labeled datasets where each point is labeled; instead, it only requires reference events defined as time points or intervals of time. Thirdly, it is designed to be robust by using a stacked ensemble learning meta-model that combines deep learning models, ranging from classic feed-forward neural networks (FFNs) to state-of-the-art architectures like transformers. This ensemble approach can mitigate individual model weaknesses and biases, resulting in more robust predictions. Finally, to facilitate practical implementation, we have developed a Python package to accompany our proposed method. The package, called eventdetector-ts, can be installed through the Python Package Index (PyPI). In this paper, we present our method and provide a comprehensive guide on the usage of the package. We showcase its versatility and effectiveness through different real-world use cases from natural language processing (NLP) to financial security domains.

Learning Regionalization within a Differentiable High-Resolution Hydrological Model using Accurate Spatial Cost Gradients

Estimating spatially distributed hydrological parameters in ungauged catchments poses a challenging regionalization problem and requires imposing spatial constraints given the sparsity of discharge data. A possible approach is to search for a transfer function that quantitatively relates physical descriptors to conceptual model parameters. This paper introduces a Hybrid Data Assimilation and Parameter Regionalization (HDA-PR) approach incorporating learnable regionalization mappings, based on either multivariate regressions or neural networks, into a differentiable hydrological model. It enables the exploitation of heterogeneous datasets across extensive spatio-temporal computational domains within a high-dimensional regionalization context, using accurate adjoint-based gradients. The inverse problem is tackled with a multi-gauge calibration cost function accounting for information from multiple observation sites. HDA-PR was tested on high-resolution, hourly and kilometric regional modeling of two flash-flood-prone areas located in the South of France. In both study areas, the median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) scores ranged from 0.52 to 0.78 at pseudo-ungauged sites over calibration and validation periods. These results highlight a strong regionalization performance of HDA-PR, improving NSE by up to 0.57 compared to the baseline model calibrated with lumped parameters, and achieving a performance comparable to the reference solution obtained with local uniform calibration (median NSE from 0.59 to 0.79). Multiple evaluation metrics based on flood-oriented hydrological signatures are also employed to assess the accuracy and robustness of the approach. The regionalization method is amenable to state-parameter correction from multi-source data over a range of time scales needed for operational data assimilation, and it is adaptable to other differentiable geophysical models.

Multi-gauge Hydrological Variational Data Assimilation: Regionalization Learning with Spatial Gradients using Multilayer Perceptron and Bayesian-Guided Multivariate Regression

Tackling the difficult problem of estimating spatially distributed hydrological parameters, especially for floods on ungauged watercourses, this contribution presents a novel seamless regionalization technique for learning complex regional transfer functions designed for high-resolution hydrological models. The transfer functions rely on: (i) a multilayer perceptron enabling a seamless flow of gradient computation to employ machine learning optimization algorithms, or (ii) a multivariate regression mapping optimized by variational data assimilation algorithms and guided by Bayesian estimation, addressing the equifinality issue of feasible solutions. The approach involves incorporating the inferable regionalization mappings into a differentiable hydrological model and optimizing a cost function computed on multi-gauge data with accurate adjoint-based spatially distributed gradients.