UQ-CHI: An Uncertainty Quantification-Based Contemporaneous Health Index for Degenerative Disease Monitoring

Developing knowledge-driven contemporaneous health index (CHI) that can precisely reflect the underlying patient across the course of the condition's progression holds a unique value, like facilitating a range of clinical decision-making opportunities. This is particularly important for monitoring degenerative condition such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), where the condition of the patient will decay over time. Detecting early symptoms and progression sign, and continuous severity evaluation, are all essential for disease management. While a few methods have been developed in the literature, uncertainty quantification of those health index models has been largely neglected. To ensure the continuity of the care, we should be more explicit about the level of confidence in model outputs. Ideally, decision-makers should be provided with recommendations that are robust in the face of substantial uncertainty about future outcomes. In this paper, we aim at filling this gap by developing an uncertainty quantification based contemporaneous longitudinal index, named UQ-CHI, with a particular focus on continuous patient monitoring of degenerative conditions. Our method is to combine convex optimization and Bayesian learning using the maximum entropy learning (MEL) framework, integrating uncertainty on labels as well. Our methodology also provides closed-form solutions in some important decision making tasks, e.g., such as predicting the label of a new sample. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose UQ-CHI method in prediction accuracy, monitoring efficacy, and unique advantages if uncertainty quantification is enabled practice.

Stability of the Stochastic Gradient Method for an Approximated Large Scale Kernel Machine

In this paper we measured the stability of stochastic gradient method (SGM) for learning an approximated Fourier primal support vector machine. The stability of an algorithm is considered by measuring the generalization error in terms of the absolute difference between the test and the training error. Our problem is to learn an approximated kernel function using random Fourier features for a binary classification problem via online convex optimization settings. For a convex, Lipschitz continuous and smooth loss function, given reasonable number of iterations stochastic gradient method is stable. We showed that with a high probability SGM generalizes well for an approximated kernel under given assumptions.We empirically verified the theoretical findings for different parameters using several data sets.

Predicting Depression Severity by Multi-Modal Feature Engineering and Fusion

We present our preliminary work to determine if patient's vocal acoustic, linguistic, and facial patterns could predict clinical ratings of depression severity, namely Patient Health Questionnaire depression scale (PHQ-8). We proposed a multi modal fusion model that combines three different modalities: audio, video , and text features. By training over AVEC 2017 data set, our proposed model outperforms each single modality prediction model, and surpasses the data set baseline with ice margin.