Learning Curves for Drug Response Prediction in Cancer Cell Lines

Motivated by the size of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating data, a common question is whether the proposed predictors can further improve the generalization performance with more training data. We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these predictors. The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, suggesting that the shape of these curves depends on the unique model-dataset pair. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training sizes for two of the datasets, whereas the mNN performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate predictors, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. The fitted power law curves provide a forward-looking performance metric and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments.

Regression Enrichment Surfaces: a Simple Analysis Technique for Virtual Drug Screening Models

We present a new method for understanding the performance of a model in virtual drug screening tasks. While most virtual screening problems present as a mix between ranking and classification, the models are typically trained as regression models presenting a problem requiring either a choice of a cutoff or ranking measure. Our method, regression enrichment surfaces (RES), is based on the goal of virtual screening: to detect as many of the top-performing treatments as possible. We outline history of virtual screening performance measures and the idea behind RES. We offer a python package and details on how to implement and interpret the results.

Targeting SARS-CoV-2 with AI- and HPC-enabled Lead Generation: A First Data Release

Researchers across the globe are seeking to rapidly repurpose existing drugs or discover new drugs to counter the the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). One promising approach is to train machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) tools to screen large numbers of small molecules. As a contribution to that effort, we are aggregating numerous small molecules from a variety of sources, using high-performance computing (HPC) to computer diverse properties of those molecules, using the computed properties to train ML/AI models, and then using the resulting models for screening. In this first data release, we make available 23 datasets collected from community sources representing over 4.2 B molecules enriched with pre-computed: 1) molecular fingerprints to aid similarity searches, 2) 2D images of molecules to enable exploration and application of image-based deep learning methods, and 3) 2D and 3D molecular descriptors to speed development of machine learning models. This data release encompasses structural information on the 4.2 B molecules and 60 TB of pre-computed data. Future releases will expand the data to include more detailed molecular simulations, computed models, and other products.

A Systematic Approach to Featurization for Cancer Drug Sensitivity Predictions with Deep Learning

By combining various cancer cell line (CCL) drug screening panels, the size of the data has grown significantly to begin understanding how advances in deep learning can advance drug response predictions. In this paper we train >35,000 neural network models, sweeping over common featurization techniques. We found the RNA-seq to be highly redundant and informative even with subsets larger than 128 features. We found the inclusion of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) coded as count matrices improved model performance significantly, and no substantial difference in model performance with respect to molecular featurization between the common open source MOrdred descriptors and Dragon7 descriptors. Alongside this analysis, we outline data integration between CCL screening datasets and present evidence that new metrics and imbalanced data techniques, as well as advances in data standardization, need to be developed.