Comparative Evaluation of Metaheuristic Algorithms for Hyperparameter Selection in Short-Term Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of weather systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. Apart from Auto Regressive time forecasting models like ARIMA, deep learning techniques (Vanilla ANNs, LSTM and GRU networks), have shown promise in improving forecasting accuracy by capturing temporal dependencies. This paper explores the application of metaheuristic algorithms, namely Genetic Algorithm (GA), Differential Evolution (DE), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), to automate the search for optimal hyperparameters in these model architectures. Metaheuristic algorithms excel in global optimization, offering robustness, versatility, and scalability in handling non-linear problems. We present a comparative analysis of different model architectures integrated with metaheuristic optimization, evaluating their performance in weather forecasting based on metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results demonstrate the potential of metaheuristic algorithms in enhancing weather forecasting accuracy \& helps in determining the optimal set of hyper-parameters for each model. The paper underscores the importance of harnessing advanced optimization techniques to select the most suitable metaheuristic algorithm for the given weather forecasting task.

Differential Evolution Algorithm based Hyper-Parameters Selection of Transformer Neural Network Model for Load Forecasting

Accurate load forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of dynamic power systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. For these reasons, time-series models (ARIMA) and deep-learning models (ANN, LSTM, GRU, etc.) are commonly deployed and often experience higher success. In this paper, we analyze the efficacy of the recently developed Transformer-based Neural Network model in Load forecasting. Transformer models have the potential to improve Load forecasting because of their ability to learn long-range dependencies derived from their Attention Mechanism. We apply several metaheuristics namely Differential Evolution to find the optimal hyperparameters of the Transformer-based Neural Network to produce accurate forecasts. Differential Evolution provides scalable, robust, global solutions to non-differentiable, multi-objective, or constrained optimization problems. Our work compares the proposed Transformer based Neural Network model integrated with different metaheuristic algorithms by their performance in Load forecasting based on numerical metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Our findings demonstrate the potential of metaheuristic-enhanced Transformer-based Neural Network models in Load forecasting accuracy and provide optimal hyperparameters for each model.