Estimation--Prediction Tradeoff in Causal Probabilistic Temporal Graphs

Temporal link prediction is usually evaluated by predictive performance on unseen edges, but in probabilistic temporal graphs this criterion can conflate model error with irreducible uncertainty. We study this issue by characterising an inherent estimation--prediction tradeoff in binary logistic models where regimes that maximise Fisher information and improve parameter recoverability are also those with the highest entropy, making individual predictions intrinsically harder even under perfect parameter recovery. We propose a probabilistic causal framework for generating temporal graphs with transient edges and known ground-truth causal structure, allowing temporal link prediction to be evaluated jointly with causal parameter recovery. For the proposed binary logistic parametrisation, we derive the Cramér--Rao bound and validate the tradeoff between parameter estimation error and irreducible predictive loss. Our results show that predictive accuracy alone may not reflect whether a model has learned the underlying causal mechanism, motivating benchmarks that distinguish reducible model error from intrinsic process uncertainty.

Generating Causal Temporal Interaction Graphs for Counterfactual Validation of Temporal Link Prediction

Temporal link prediction (TLP) models are commonly evaluated based on predictive accuracy, yet such evaluations do not assess whether these models capture the causal mechanisms that govern temporal interactions. In this work, we propose a framework for counterfactual validation of TLP models by generating causal temporal interaction graphs (CTIGs) with known ground-truth causal structure. We first introduce a structural equation model for continuous-time event sequences that supports both excitatory and inhibitory effects, and then extend this mechanism to temporal interaction graphs. To compare causal models, we propose a distance metric based on cross-model predictive error, and empirically validate the hypothesis that predictors trained on one causal model degrade when evaluated on sufficiently distant models. Finally, we instantiate counterfactual evaluation under (i) controlled causal shifts between generating models and (ii) timestamp shuffling as a stochastic distortion with measurable causal distance. Our framework provides a foundation for causality-aware benchmarking.

XDT-CXR: Investigating Cross-Disease Transferability in Zero-Shot Binary Classification of Chest X-Rays

This study explores the concept of cross-disease transferability (XDT) in medical imaging, focusing on the potential of binary classifiers trained on one disease to perform zero-shot classification on another disease affecting the same organ. Utilizing chest X-rays (CXR) as the primary modality, we investigate whether a model trained on one pulmonary disease can make predictions about another novel pulmonary disease, a scenario with significant implications for medical settings with limited data on emerging diseases. The XDT framework leverages the embedding space of a vision encoder, which, through kernel transformation, aids in distinguishing between diseased and non-diseased classes in the latent space. This capability is especially beneficial in resource-limited environments or in regions with low prevalence of certain diseases, where conventional diagnostic practices may fail. However, the XDT framework is currently limited to binary classification, determining only the presence or absence of a disease rather than differentiating among multiple diseases. This limitation underscores the supplementary role of XDT to traditional diagnostic tests in clinical settings. Furthermore, results show that XDT-CXR as a framework is able to make better predictions compared to other zero-shot learning (ZSL) baselines.

Online Algorithm for Node Feature Forecasting in Temporal Graphs

In this paper, we propose an online algorithm "mspace" for forecasting node features in temporal graphs, which adeptly captures spatial cross-correlation among different nodes as well as the temporal autocorrelation within a node. The algorithm can be used for both probabilistic and deterministic multi-step forecasting, making it applicable for estimation and generation tasks. Comparative evaluations against various baselines, including graph neural network (GNN) based models and classical Kalman filters, demonstrate that mspace performs at par with the state-of-the-art and even surpasses them on some datasets. Importantly, mspace demonstrates consistent robustness across datasets with varying training sizes, a notable advantage over GNN-based methods requiring abundant training samples to learn the spatiotemporal trends in the data effectively. Therefore, employing mspace is advantageous in scenarios where the training sample availability is limited. Additionally, we establish theoretical bounds on multi-step forecasting error of mspace and show that it scales as $O(q)$ for $q$-step forecast.

A Primer on Temporal Graph Learning

This document aims to familiarize readers with temporal graph learning (TGL) through a concept-first approach. We have systematically presented vital concepts essential for understanding the workings of a TGL framework. In addition to qualitative explanations, we have incorporated mathematical formulations where applicable, enhancing the clarity of the text. Since TGL involves temporal and spatial learning, we introduce relevant learning architectures ranging from recurrent and convolutional neural networks to transformers and graph neural networks. We also discuss classical time series forecasting methods to inspire interpretable learning solutions for TGL.

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test-Based Actively-Adaptive Thompson Sampling for Non-Stationary Bandits

We consider the non-stationary multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework and propose a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test based Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm named TS-KS, that actively detects change points and resets the TS parameters once a change is detected. In particular, for the two-armed bandit case, we derive bounds on the number of samples of the reward distribution to detect the change once it occurs. Consequently, we show that the proposed algorithm has sub-linear regret. Contrary to existing works, our algorithm is able to detect a change when the underlying reward distribution changes even though the mean reward remains the same. Finally, to test the efficacy of the proposed algorithm, we employ it in two case-studies: i) task-offloading scenario in wireless edge-computing, and ii) portfolio optimization. Our results show that the proposed TS-KS algorithm outperforms not only the static TS algorithm but also it performs better than other bandit algorithms designed for non-stationary environments. Moreover, the performance of TS-KS is at par with the state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms such as Facebook-PROPHET and ARIMA.

An Online Algorithm for Computation Offloading in Non-Stationary Environments

We consider the latency minimization problem in a task-offloading scenario, where multiple servers are available to the user equipment for outsourcing computational tasks. To account for the temporally dynamic nature of the wireless links and the availability of the computing resources, we model the server selection as a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem. In the considered MAB framework, rewards are characterized in terms of the end-to-end latency. We propose a novel online learning algorithm based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty, which outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms by up to ~1s. Our results highlight the significance of heavily discounting the past rewards in dynamic environments.