Competitive Distribution Estimation

Estimating an unknown distribution from its samples is a fundamental problem in statistics. The common, min-max, formulation of this goal considers the performance of the best estimator over all distributions in a class. It shows that with $n$ samples, distributions over $k$ symbols can be learned to a KL divergence that decreases to zero with the sample size $n$, but grows unboundedly with the alphabet size $k$. Min-max performance can be viewed as regret relative to an oracle that knows the underlying distribution. We consider two natural and modest limits on the oracle's power. One where it knows the underlying distribution only up to symbol permutations, and the other where it knows the exact distribution but is restricted to use natural estimators that assign the same probability to symbols that appeared equally many times in the sample. We show that in both cases the competitive regret reduces to $\min(k/n,\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt n))$, a quantity upper bounded uniformly for every alphabet size. This shows that distributions can be estimated nearly as well as when they are essentially known in advance, and nearly as well as when they are completely known in advance but need to be estimated via a natural estimator. We also provide an estimator that runs in linear time and incurs competitive regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\min(k/n,1/\sqrt n))$, and show that for natural estimators this competitive regret is inevitable. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of competitive estimators using simulations.

Universal Compression of Envelope Classes: Tight Characterization via Poisson Sampling

The Poisson-sampling technique eliminates dependencies among symbol appearances in a random sequence. It has been used to simplify the analysis and strengthen the performance guarantees of randomized algorithms. Applying this method to universal compression, we relate the redundancies of fixed-length and Poisson-sampled sequences, use the relation to derive a simple single-letter formula that approximates the redundancy of any envelope class to within an additive logarithmic term. As a first application, we consider i.i.d. distributions over a small alphabet as a step-envelope class, and provide a short proof that determines the redundancy of discrete distributions over a small al- phabet up to the first order terms. We then show the strength of our method by applying the formula to tighten the existing bounds on the redundancy of exponential and power-law classes, in particular answering a question posed by Boucheron, Garivier and Gassiat.

Near-optimal-sample estimators for spherical Gaussian mixtures

Statistical and machine-learning algorithms are frequently applied to high-dimensional data. In many of these applications data is scarce, and often much more costly than computation time. We provide the first sample-efficient polynomial-time estimator for high-dimensional spherical Gaussian mixtures. For mixtures of any $k$ $d$-dimensional spherical Gaussians, we derive an intuitive spectral-estimator that uses $\mathcal{O}_k\bigl(\frac{d\log^2d}{\epsilon^4}\bigr)$ samples and runs in time $\mathcal{O}_{k,\epsilon}(d^3\log^5 d)$, both significantly lower than previously known. The constant factor $\mathcal{O}_k$ is polynomial for sample complexity and is exponential for the time complexity, again much smaller than what was previously known. We also show that $\Omega_k\bigl(\frac{d}{\epsilon^2}\bigr)$ samples are needed for any algorithm. Hence the sample complexity is near-optimal in the number of dimensions. We also derive a simple estimator for one-dimensional mixtures that uses $\mathcal{O}\bigl(\frac{k \log \frac{k}{\epsilon} }{\epsilon^2} \bigr)$ samples and runs in time $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\bigl(\frac{k}{\epsilon}\bigr)^{3k+1}\right)$. Our other technical contributions include a faster algorithm for choosing a density estimate from a set of distributions, that minimizes the $\ell_1$ distance to an unknown underlying distribution.

On Modeling Profiles instead of Values

We consider the problem of estimating the distribution underlying an observed sample of data. Instead of maximum likelihood, which maximizes the probability of the ob served values, we propose a different estimate, the high-profile distribution, which maximizes the probability of the observed profile the number of symbols appearing any given number of times. We determine the high-profile distribution of several data samples, establish some of its general properties, and show that when the number of distinct symbols observed is small compared to the data size, the high-profile and maximum-likelihood distributions are roughly the same, but when the number of symbols is large, the distributions differ, and high-profile better explains the data.