Ensemble Methods of Classification for Power Systems Security Assessment

One of the most promising approaches for complex technical systems analysis employs ensemble methods of classification. Ensemble methods enable to build a reliable decision rules for feature space classification in the presence of many possible states of the system. In this paper, novel techniques based on decision trees are used for evaluation of the reliability of the regime of electric power systems. We proposed hybrid approach based on random forests models and boosting models. Such techniques can be applied to predict the interaction of increasing renewable power, storage devices and swiching of smart loads from intelligent domestic appliances, heaters and air-conditioning units and electric vehicles with grid for enhanced decision making. The ensemble classification methods were tested on the modified 118-bus IEEE power system showing that proposed technique can be employed to examine whether the power system is secured under steady-state operating conditions.

Power System Parameters Forecasting Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Machine Learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting.