Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport

Airport surface operations increasingly constrain performance at high-throughput hubs. This study examines arrival taxi-in decisions at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (KATL) and proposes a two-stage, data-driven decision aid that mirrors controller workflow. Stage I predicts the runway exit selected by an arriving aircraft. Stage II predicts whether, given that exit, the aircraft will cross the active departure runway at a designated point or use the end-around taxiway. Models are trained using ASDE-X surface trajectories, aircraft characteristics, ramp destinations, short-horizon traffic rates, and weather across multiple look-back windows. We benchmark nine classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, and evaluate accuracy, macro-F1, precision-recall behavior, confusion matrices, Brier score, and Expected Calibration Error. Across east and west flows, XGBoost and LightGBM outperform Random Forest. Stage I achieves 0.86-0.89 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.40-0.50, while Stage II achieves 0.70-0.74 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.28-0.55. Feature-importance analysis shows that approach speed is the main driver of exit choice. Departure rate, crossing rate, ramp destination, and, for west flow, the selected exit are the strongest predictors of crossing versus end-around routing. Minority classes remain harder to predict because of feature-space overlap, as shown by t-SNE and UMAP analyses. The proposed framework supports controller situational awareness through calibrated, explainable predictions while preserving human responsibility for final routing decisions.

From Voice to Safety: Language AI Powered Pilot-ATC Communication Understanding for Airport Surface Movement Collision Risk Assessment

This work integrates language AI-based voice communication understanding with collision risk assessment. The proposed framework consists of two major parts, (a) Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR); (b) surface collision risk modeling. ASR module generates information tables by processing voice communication transcripts, which serve as references for producing potential taxi plans and calculating the surface movement collision risk. For ASR, we collect and annotate our own Named Entity Recognition (NER) dataset based on open-sourced video recordings and safety investigation reports. Additionally, we refer to FAA Order JO 7110.65W and FAA Order JO 7340.2N to get the list of heuristic rules and phase contractions of communication between the pilot and the Air Traffic Controller (ATCo) used in daily aviation operations. Then, we propose the novel ATC Rule-Enhanced NER method, which integrates the heuristic rules into the model training and inference stages, resulting into hybrid rule-based NER model. We show the effectiveness of this hybrid approach by comparing different setups with different token-level embedding models. For the risk modeling, we adopt the node-link airport layout graph from NASA FACET and model the aircraft taxi speed at each link as a log-normal distribution and derive the total taxi time distribution. Then, we propose a spatiotemporal formulation of the risk probability of two aircraft moving across potential collision nodes during ground movement. We show the effectiveness of our approach by simulating two case studies, (a) the Henada airport runway collision accident happened in January 2024; (b) the KATL taxiway collision happened in September 2024. We show that, by understanding the pilot-ATC communication transcripts and analyzing surface movement patterns, the proposed model improves airport safety by providing risk assessment in time.