Pseudospectral Bounds for Transient Amplification in Coupled Gradient Descent

Coupled gradient descent--where the update of one parameter block depends on another--underlies bilevel optimization, two-time-scale stochastic approximation, and adversarial training. When the coupled Jacobian is block-triangular, asymptotic stability is governed by the spectral radii of the diagonal blocks, yet transient amplification before convergence can be arbitrarily large due to non-normality. We develop a sharp pseudospectral theory for such block-triangular Jacobians, proving that the Kreiss constant satisfies $K(J) \leq 2/(1-γ) + \|C\|/(4(1-γ))$ when the diagonal blocks are symmetric with spectral radii at most $γ< 1$, and we establish matching minimax lower bounds. We characterize the critical coupling threshold for spectral instability and extend the analysis to nearly self-referential systems via a Neumann-series perturbation framework. As a consequence, we obtain a finite-horizon iteration-complexity bound of $O(K(J)^2 \log(1/δ))$ for stochastic coupled descent. Framed as scaling laws for non-stationary two-time-scale optimization, our results expose a non-asymptotic, instance-dependent regime of high-dimensional learning dynamics that is invisible to spectral-radius analysis. Experiments on linear-quadratic problems, IQC-based comparisons, and neural-network training confirm the theory.

MMD-Balls as Credal Sets: A PAC-Bayesian Framework for Epistemic Uncertainty in Test-Time Adaptation

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods improve model performance under distribution shift but lack formal guarantees connecting shift magnitude to prediction reliability. We develop a PAC-Bayesian framework yielding generalization bounds explicitly parameterized by the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between source and target distributions. Our principal contribution is interpreting MMD-balls around the source distribution as credal sets in Walley's imprecise probability theory, yielding natural epistemic uncertainty quantification. We establish: (i) a PAC-Bayesian bound with an MMD-dependent shift penalty under an RKHS-Lipschitz loss assumption; (ii) a finite-sample version via MMD concentration; (iii) a uniform worst-case risk bound over all distributions in the credal set, with a lower-upper risk decomposition; and (iv) geodesic preservation bounds explaining why kernel-guided adaptation protects local feature geometry. The credal set interpretation separates epistemic from aleatoric uncertainty and provides a principled decision criterion for when adaptation is warranted.