Interacting Diffusion Processes for Event Sequence Forecasting

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have emerged as the primary framework for predicting sequences of events that occur at irregular time intervals, but their sequential nature can hamper performance for long-horizon forecasts. To address this, we introduce a novel approach that incorporates a diffusion generative model. The model facilitates sequence-to-sequence prediction, allowing multi-step predictions based on historical event sequences. In contrast to previous approaches, our model directly learns the joint probability distribution of types and inter-arrival times for multiple events. This allows us to fully leverage the high dimensional modeling capability of modern generative models. Our model is composed of two diffusion processes, one for the time intervals and one for the event types. These processes interact through their respective denoising functions, which can take as input intermediate representations from both processes, allowing the model to learn complex interactions. We demonstrate that our proposal outperforms state-of-the-art baselines for long-horizon forecasting of TPP.

Sky Imager-Based Forecast of Solar Irradiance Using Machine Learning

Ahead-of-time forecasting of the output power of power plants is essential for the stability of the electricity grid and ensuring uninterrupted service. However, forecasting renewable energy sources is difficult due to the chaotic behavior of natural energy sources. This paper presents a new approach to estimate short-term solar irradiance from sky images. The~proposed algorithm extracts features from sky images and use learning-based techniques to estimate the solar irradiance. The~performance of proposed machine learning (ML) algorithm is evaluated using two publicly available datasets of sky images. The~datasets contain over 350,000 images for an interval of 16 years, from 2004 to 2020, with the corresponding global horizontal irradiance (GHI) of each image as the ground truth. Compared to the state-of-the-art computationally heavy algorithms proposed in the literature, our approach achieves competitive results with much less computational complexity for both nowcasting and forecasting up to 4 h ahead of time.

Gaze-based Learning from Demonstration In Surgical Robotics

Surgical robotics is a rising field in medical technology and advanced robotics. Robot assisted surgery, or robotic surgery, allows surgeons to perform complicated surgical tasks with more precision, automation, and flexibility than is possible for traditional surgical approaches. The main type of robot assisted surgery is minimally invasive surgery, which could be automated and result in a faster healing time for the patient. The surgical robot we are particularly interested in is the da Vinci surgical system, which is developed and manufactured by Intuitive Surgical. In the current iteration of the system, the endoscopic camera arm on the da Vinci robot has to be manually controlled and calibrated by the surgeon during a surgical task, which interrupts the flow of the operation. The main goal of this capstone project is to automate the motion of the camera arm using a probabilistic model based on surgeon eye gaze data and da Vinci robot kinematic data.

FAIRLABEL: Correcting Bias in Labels

There are several algorithms for measuring fairness of ML models. A fundamental assumption in these approaches is that the ground truth is fair or unbiased. In real-world datasets, however, the ground truth often contains data that is a result of historical and societal biases and discrimination. Models trained on these datasets will inherit and propagate the biases to the model outputs. We propose FAIRLABEL, an algorithm which detects and corrects biases in labels. The goal of FAIRLABELis to reduce the Disparate Impact (DI) across groups while maintaining high accuracy in predictions. We propose metrics to measure the quality of bias correction and validate FAIRLABEL on synthetic datasets and show that the label correction is correct 86.7% of the time vs. 71.9% for a baseline model. We also apply FAIRLABEL on benchmark datasets such as UCI Adult, German Credit Risk, and Compas datasets and show that the Disparate Impact Ratio increases by as much as 54.2%.

Ontology-Driven Processing of Transdisciplinary Domain Knowledge

The monograph discusses certain aspects of modern real-world problems facing humanity, which are much more challenging than scientific ones. Modern science is unable to solve them in a fundamental way. Vernadsky's noosphere thesis, in fact, appeals to the scientific worldview that needs to be built in a way that overcomes the interdisciplinary barriers and increases the effectiveness of interdisciplinary interaction and modern science overall. We are talking about the general transdisciplinary knowledge. In world practice, there is still no systematic methodology and a specific form of generally accepted valid scientific theory that would provide transdisciplinary knowledge. Non-linear interdisciplinary interaction is the standard of evolution of modern science. At the same time, a new transdisciplinary theory (domain of scientific research) is being de facto created and the process is repeated many times: from an individual or group of disciplines, through interdisciplinary interaction, in a direction that brings us closer to creating a holistic general scientific worldview.

FreeNoise: Tuning-Free Longer Video Diffusion Via Noise Rescheduling

With the availability of large-scale video datasets and the advances of diffusion models, text-driven video generation has achieved substantial progress. However, existing video generation models are typically trained on a limited number of frames, resulting in the inability to generate high-fidelity long videos during inference. Furthermore, these models only support single-text conditions, whereas real-life scenarios often require multi-text conditions as the video content changes over time. To tackle these challenges, this study explores the potential of extending the text-driven capability to generate longer videos conditioned on multiple texts. 1) We first analyze the impact of initial noise in video diffusion models. Then building upon the observation of noise, we propose FreeNoise, a tuning-free and time-efficient paradigm to enhance the generative capabilities of pretrained video diffusion models while preserving content consistency. Specifically, instead of initializing noises for all frames, we reschedule a sequence of noises for long-range correlation and perform temporal attention over them by window-based function. 2) Additionally, we design a novel motion injection method to support the generation of videos conditioned on multiple text prompts. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of our paradigm in extending the generative capabilities of video diffusion models. It is noteworthy that compared with the previous best-performing method which brought about 255% extra time cost, our method incurs only negligible time cost of approximately 17%. Generated video samples are available at our website: http://haonanqiu.com/projects/FreeNoise.html.

A Real-Time Multi-Task Learning System for Joint Detection of Face, Facial Landmark and Head Pose

Extreme head postures pose a common challenge across a spectrum of facial analysis tasks, including face detection, facial landmark detection (FLD), and head pose estimation (HPE). These tasks are interdependent, where accurate FLD relies on robust face detection, and HPE is intricately associated with these key points. This paper focuses on the integration of these tasks, particularly when addressing the complexities posed by large-angle face poses. The primary contribution of this study is the proposal of a real-time multi-task detection system capable of simultaneously performing joint detection of faces, facial landmarks, and head poses. This system builds upon the widely adopted YOLOv8 detection framework. It extends the original object detection head by incorporating additional landmark regression head, enabling efficient localization of crucial facial landmarks. Furthermore, we conduct optimizations and enhancements on various modules within the original YOLOv8 framework. To validate the effectiveness and real-time performance of our proposed model, we conduct extensive experiments on 300W-LP and AFLW2000-3D datasets. The results obtained verify the capability of our model to tackle large-angle face pose challenges while delivering real-time performance across these interconnected tasks.

The equivalence of dynamic and strategic stability under regularized learning in games

In this paper, we examine the long-run behavior of regularized, no-regret learning in finite games. A well-known result in the field states that the empirical frequencies of no-regret play converge to the game's set of coarse correlated equilibria; however, our understanding of how the players' actual strategies evolve over time is much more limited - and, in many cases, non-existent. This issue is exacerbated further by a series of recent results showing that only strict Nash equilibria are stable and attracting under regularized learning, thus making the relation between learning and pointwise solution concepts particularly elusive. In lieu of this, we take a more general approach and instead seek to characterize the \emph{setwise} rationality properties of the players' day-to-day play. To that end, we focus on one of the most stringent criteria of setwise strategic stability, namely that any unilateral deviation from the set in question incurs a cost to the deviator - a property known as closedness under better replies (club). In so doing, we obtain a far-reaching equivalence between strategic and dynamic stability: a product of pure strategies is closed under better replies if and only if its span is stable and attracting under regularized learning. In addition, we estimate the rate of convergence to such sets, and we show that methods based on entropic regularization (like the exponential weights algorithm) converge at a geometric rate, while projection-based methods converge within a finite number of iterations, even with bandit, payoff-based feedback.

Predicting Ground Reaction Force from Inertial Sensors

The study of ground reaction forces (GRF) is used to characterize the mechanical loading experienced by individuals in movements such as running, which is clinically applicable to identify athletes at risk for stress-related injuries. Our aim in this paper is to determine if data collected with inertial measurement units (IMUs), that can be worn by athletes during outdoor runs, can be used to predict GRF with sufficient accuracy to allow the analysis of its derived biomechanical variables (e.g., contact time and loading rate). In this paper, we consider lightweight approaches in contrast to state-of-the-art prediction using LSTM neural networks. Specifically, we compare use of LSTMs to k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) regression as well as propose a novel solution, SVD Embedding Regression (SER), using linear regression between singular value decomposition embeddings of IMUs data (input) and GRF data (output). We evaluate the accuracy of these techniques when using training data collected from different athletes, from the same athlete, or both, and we explore the use of acceleration and angular velocity data from sensors at different locations (sacrum and shanks). Our results illustrate that simple machine learning methods such as SER and KNN can be similarly accurate or more accurate than LSTM neural networks, with much faster training times and hyperparameter optimization; in particular, SER and KNN are more accurate when personal training data are available, and KNN comes with benefit of providing provenance of prediction. Notably, the use of personal data reduces prediction errors of all methods for most biomechanical variables.

CADSim: Robust and Scalable in-the-wild 3D Reconstruction for Controllable Sensor Simulation

Realistic simulation is key to enabling safe and scalable development of % self-driving vehicles. A core component is simulating the sensors so that the entire autonomy system can be tested in simulation. Sensor simulation involves modeling traffic participants, such as vehicles, with high quality appearance and articulated geometry, and rendering them in real time. The self-driving industry has typically employed artists to build these assets. However, this is expensive, slow, and may not reflect reality. Instead, reconstructing assets automatically from sensor data collected in the wild would provide a better path to generating a diverse and large set with good real-world coverage. Nevertheless, current reconstruction approaches struggle on in-the-wild sensor data, due to its sparsity and noise. To tackle these issues, we present CADSim, which combines part-aware object-class priors via a small set of CAD models with differentiable rendering to automatically reconstruct vehicle geometry, including articulated wheels, with high-quality appearance. Our experiments show our method recovers more accurate shapes from sparse data compared to existing approaches. Importantly, it also trains and renders efficiently. We demonstrate our reconstructed vehicles in several applications, including accurate testing of autonomy perception systems.