Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss function that directly optimizes the hierarchical product and/or temporal structure. The benefit of our sparse hierarchical loss function is that it provides practitioners a method of producing bottom-level forecasts that are coherent to any chosen cross-sectional or temporal hierarchy. In addition, removing the need for a post-processing step as required in traditional hierarchical forecasting techniques reduces the computational cost of the prediction phase in the forecasting pipeline. On the public M5 dataset, our sparse hierarchical loss function performs up to 10% (RMSE) better compared to the baseline loss function. We implement our sparse hierarchical loss function within an existing forecasting model at bol, a large European e-commerce platform, resulting in an improved forecasting performance of 2% at the product level. Finally, we found an increase in forecasting performance of about 5-10% when evaluating the forecasting performance across the cross-sectional hierarchies that we defined. These results demonstrate the usefulness of our sparse hierarchical loss applied to a production forecasting system at a major e-commerce platform.
This work presents an algorithm for tracking the shape of multiple entangling Deformable Linear Objects (DLOs) from a sequence of RGB-D images. This algorithm runs in real-time and improves on previous single-DLO tracking approaches by enabling tracking of multiple objects. This is achieved using Global-Local Topology Preservation (GLTP). This work uses the geodesic distance in GLTP to define the distance between separate objects and the distance between different parts of the same object. Tracking multiple entangling DLOs is demonstrated experimentally. The source code is publicly released.
Sound design involves creatively selecting, recording, and editing sound effects for various media like cinema, video games, and virtual/augmented reality. One of the most time-consuming steps when designing sound is synchronizing audio with video. In some cases, environmental recordings from video shoots are available, which can aid in the process. However, in video games and animations, no reference audio exists, requiring manual annotation of event timings from the video. We propose a system to extract repetitive actions onsets from a video, which are then used - in conjunction with audio or textual embeddings - to condition a diffusion model trained to generate a new synchronized sound effects audio track. In this way, we leave complete creative control to the sound designer while removing the burden of synchronization with video. Furthermore, editing the onset track or changing the conditioning embedding requires much less effort than editing the audio track itself, simplifying the sonification process. We provide sound examples, source code, and pretrained models to faciliate reproducibility
Accurate forecasting and analysis of emerging pandemics play a crucial role in effective public health management and decision-making. Traditional approaches primarily rely on epidemiological data, overlooking other valuable sources of information that could act as sensors or indicators of pandemic patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called MGL4MEP that integrates temporal graph neural networks and multi-modal data for learning and forecasting. We incorporate big data sources, including social media content, by utilizing specific pre-trained language models and discovering the underlying graph structure among users. This integration provides rich indicators of pandemic dynamics through learning with temporal graph neural networks. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework in pandemic forecasting and analysis, outperforming baseline methods across different areas, pandemic situations, and prediction horizons. The fusion of temporal graph learning and multi-modal data enables a comprehensive understanding of the pandemic landscape with less time lag, cheap cost, and more potential information indicators.
Posterior sampling, i.e., exponential mechanism to sample from the posterior distribution, provides $\varepsilon$-pure differential privacy (DP) guarantees and does not suffer from potentially unbounded privacy breach introduced by $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-approximate DP. In practice, however, one needs to apply approximate sampling methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), thus re-introducing the unappealing $\delta$-approximation error into the privacy guarantees. To bridge this gap, we propose the Approximate SAample Perturbation (abbr. ASAP) algorithm which perturbs an MCMC sample with noise proportional to its Wasserstein-infinity ($W_\infty$) distance from a reference distribution that satisfies pure DP or pure Gaussian DP (i.e., $\delta=0$). We then leverage a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate the sample and prove that the algorithm converges in W$_\infty$ distance. We show that by combining our new techniques with a careful localization step, we obtain the first nearly linear-time algorithm that achieves the optimal rates in the DP-ERM problem with strongly convex and smooth losses.
High dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) problems are numerous among real-world applications of machine learning. From medical images to text processing, traditional machine learning algorithms are usually unsuccessful in learning the best possible concept from such data. In a previous work, we proposed a dissimilarity-based approach for multi-view classification, the Random Forest Dissimilarity (RFD), that perfoms state-of-the-art results for such problems. In this work, we transpose the core principle of this approach to solving HDLSS classification problems, by using the RF similarity measure as a learned precomputed SVM kernel (RFSVM). We show that such a learned similarity measure is particularly suited and accurate for this classification context. Experiments conducted on 40 public HDLSS classification datasets, supported by rigorous statistical analyses, show that the RFSVM method outperforms existing methods for the majority of HDLSS problems and remains at the same time very competitive for low or non-HDLSS problems.
This paper presents a brief examination of Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) technology within ground-based radar systems. It offers a lucid comprehension of the ATR concept, delves into its historical milestones, and categorizes ATR methods according to different scattering regions. By incorporating ATR solutions into radar systems, this study demonstrates the expansion of radar detection ranges and the enhancement of tracking capabilities, leading to superior situational awareness. Drawing insights from the Russo-Ukrainian War, the paper highlights three pressing radar applications that urgently necessitate ATR technology: detecting stealth aircraft, countering small drones, and implementing anti-jamming measures. Anticipating the next wave of radar ATR research, the study predicts a surge in cognitive radar and machine learning (ML)-driven algorithms. These emerging methodologies aspire to confront challenges associated with system adaptation, real-time recognition, and environmental adaptability. Ultimately, ATR stands poised to revolutionize conventional radar systems, ushering in an era of 4D sensing capabilities.
Modeling groundwater levels continuously across California's Central Valley (CV) hydrological system is challenging due to low-quality well data which is sparsely and noisily sampled across time and space. A novel machine learning method is proposed for modeling groundwater levels by learning from a 3D lithological texture model of the CV aquifer. The proposed formulation performs multivariate regression by combining Gaussian processes (GP) and deep neural networks (DNN). Proposed hierarchical modeling approach constitutes training the DNN to learn a lithologically informed latent space where non-parametric regression with GP is performed. The methodology is applied for modeling groundwater levels across the CV during 2015 - 2020. We demonstrate the efficacy of GP-DNN regression for modeling non-stationary features in the well data with fast and reliable uncertainty quantification. Our results indicate that the 2017 and 2019 wet years in California were largely ineffective in replenishing the groundwater loss caused during previous drought years.
Spectral clustering is a popular and effective algorithm designed to find $k$ clusters in a graph $G$. In the classical spectral clustering algorithm, the vertices of $G$ are embedded into $\mathbb{R}^k$ using $k$ eigenvectors of the graph Laplacian matrix. However, computing this embedding is computationally expensive and dominates the running time of the algorithm. In this paper, we present a simple spectral clustering algorithm based on a vertex embedding with $O(\log(k))$ vectors computed by the power method. The vertex embedding is computed in nearly-linear time with respect to the size of the graph, and the algorithm provably recovers the ground truth clusters under natural assumptions on the input graph. We evaluate the new algorithm on several synthetic and real-world datasets, finding that it is significantly faster than alternative clustering algorithms, while producing results with approximately the same clustering accuracy.
The Quasi Manhattan Wasserstein Distance (QMWD) is a metric designed to quantify the dissimilarity between two matrices by combining elements of the Wasserstein Distance with specific transformations. It offers improved time and space complexity compared to the Manhattan Wasserstein Distance (MWD) while maintaining accuracy. QMWD is particularly advantageous for large datasets or situations with limited computational resources. This article provides a detailed explanation of QMWD, its computation, complexity analysis, and comparisons with WD and MWD.