The emergence of deep learning has yielded noteworthy advancements in time series forecasting (TSF). Transformer architectures, in particular, have witnessed broad utilization and adoption in TSF tasks. Transformers have proven to be the most successful solution to extract the semantic correlations among the elements within a long sequence. Various variants have enabled transformer architecture to effectively handle long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. In this article, we first present a comprehensive overview of transformer architectures and their subsequent enhancements developed to address various LTSF tasks. Then, we summarize the publicly available LTSF datasets and relevant evaluation metrics. Furthermore, we provide valuable insights into the best practices and techniques for effectively training transformers in the context of time-series analysis. Lastly, we propose potential research directions in this rapidly evolving field.
It has been suggested that large language models such as GPT-4 have acquired some form of understanding beyond the correlations among the words in text including some understanding of mathematics as well. Here, we perform a critical inquiry into this claim by evaluating the mathematical understanding of the GPT-4 model. Considering that GPT-4's training set is a secret, it is not straightforward to evaluate whether the model's correct answers are based on a mathematical understanding or based on replication of proofs that the model has seen before. We specifically craft mathematical questions which their formal proofs are not readily available on the web, proofs that are more likely not seen by the GPT-4. We see that GPT-4 is unable to solve those problems despite their simplicity. It is hard to find scientific evidence suggesting that GPT-4 has acquired an understanding of even basic mathematical concepts. A straightforward way to find failure modes of GPT-4 in theorem proving is to craft questions where their formal proofs are not available on the web. Our finding suggests that GPT-4's ability is to reproduce, rephrase, and polish the mathematical proofs that it has seen before, and not in grasping mathematical concepts. We also see that GPT-4's ability to prove mathematical theorems is continuously expanding over time despite the claim that it is a fixed model. We suggest that the task of proving mathematical theorems in formal language is comparable to the methods used in search engines such as Google while predicting the next word in a sentence may be a misguided approach, a recipe that often leads to excessive extrapolation and eventual failures. Prompting the GPT-4 over and over may benefit the GPT-4 and the OpenAI, but we question whether it is valuable for machine learning or for theorem proving.
The task of uncovering causal relationships among multivariate time series data stands as an essential and challenging objective that cuts across a broad array of disciplines ranging from climate science to healthcare. Such data entails linear or non-linear relationships, and usually follow multiple a priori unknown regimes. Existing causal discovery methods can infer summary causal graphs from heterogeneous data with known regimes, but they fall short in comprehensively learning both regimes and the corresponding causal graph. In this paper, we introduce CASTOR, a novel framework designed to learn causal relationships in heterogeneous time series data composed of various regimes, each governed by a distinct causal graph. Through the maximization of a score function via the EM algorithm, CASTOR infers the number of regimes and learns linear or non-linear causal relationships in each regime. We demonstrate the robust convergence properties of CASTOR, specifically highlighting its proficiency in accurately identifying unique regimes. Empirical evidence, garnered from exhaustive synthetic experiments and two real-world benchmarks, confirm CASTOR's superior performance in causal discovery compared to baseline methods. By learning a full temporal causal graph for each regime, CASTOR establishes itself as a distinctly interpretable method for causal discovery in heterogeneous time series.
Recent high-performance transformer-based speech enhancement models demonstrate that time domain methods could achieve similar performance as time-frequency domain methods. However, time-domain speech enhancement systems typically receive input audio sequences consisting of a large number of time steps, making it challenging to model extremely long sequences and train models to perform adequately. In this paper, we utilize smaller audio chunks as input to achieve efficient utilization of audio information to address the above challenges. We propose a dual-phase audio transformer for denoising (DPATD), a novel model to organize transformer layers in a deep structure to learn clean audio sequences for denoising. DPATD splits the audio input into smaller chunks, where the input length can be proportional to the square root of the original sequence length. Our memory-compressed explainable attention is efficient and converges faster compared to the frequently used self-attention module. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
Traditional Time-series Anomaly Detection (TAD) methods often struggle with the composite nature of complex time-series data and a diverse array of anomalies. We introduce TADNet, an end-to-end TAD model that leverages Seasonal-Trend Decomposition to link various types of anomalies to specific decomposition components, thereby simplifying the analysis of complex time-series and enhancing detection performance. Our training methodology, which includes pre-training on a synthetic dataset followed by fine-tuning, strikes a balance between effective decomposition and precise anomaly detection. Experimental validation on real-world datasets confirms TADNet's state-of-the-art performance across a diverse range of anomalies.
Contemporary point cloud segmentation approaches largely rely on richly annotated 3D training data. However, it is both time-consuming and challenging to obtain consistently accurate annotations for such 3D scene data. Moreover, there is still a lack of investigation into fully unsupervised scene segmentation for point clouds, especially for holistic 3D scenes. This paper presents U3DS$^3$, as a step towards completely unsupervised point cloud segmentation for any holistic 3D scenes. To achieve this, U3DS$^3$ leverages a generalized unsupervised segmentation method for both object and background across both indoor and outdoor static 3D point clouds with no requirement for model pre-training, by leveraging only the inherent information of the point cloud to achieve full 3D scene segmentation. The initial step of our proposed approach involves generating superpoints based on the geometric characteristics of each scene. Subsequently, it undergoes a learning process through a spatial clustering-based methodology, followed by iterative training using pseudo-labels generated in accordance with the cluster centroids. Moreover, by leveraging the invariance and equivariance of the volumetric representations, we apply the geometric transformation on voxelized features to provide two sets of descriptors for robust representation learning. Finally, our evaluation provides state-of-the-art results on the ScanNet and SemanticKITTI, and competitive results on the S3DIS, benchmark datasets.
Self-supervised monocular depth estimation methods aim to be used in critical applications such as autonomous vehicles for environment analysis. To circumvent the potential imperfections of these approaches, a quantification of the prediction confidence is crucial to guide decision-making systems that rely on depth estimation. In this paper, we propose MonoProb, a new unsupervised monocular depth estimation method that returns an interpretable uncertainty, which means that the uncertainty reflects the expected error of the network in its depth predictions. We rethink the stereo or the structure-from-motion paradigms used to train unsupervised monocular depth models as a probabilistic problem. Within a single forward pass inference, this model provides a depth prediction and a measure of its confidence, without increasing the inference time. We then improve the performance on depth and uncertainty with a novel self-distillation loss for which a student is supervised by a pseudo ground truth that is a probability distribution on depth output by a teacher. To quantify the performance of our models we design new metrics that, unlike traditional ones, measure the absolute performance of uncertainty predictions. Our experiments highlight enhancements achieved by our method on standard depth and uncertainty metrics as well as on our tailored metrics. https://github.com/CEA-LIST/MonoProb
Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA), a leading cause of disability worldwide, is challenging to detect early due to subtle radiographic indicators. Diverse, extensive datasets are needed but are challenging to compile because of privacy, data collection limitations, and the progressive nature of KOA. However, a model capable of projecting genuine radiographs into different OA stages could augment data pools, enhance algorithm training, and offer pre-emptive prognostic insights. In this study, we trained a CycleGAN model to synthesize past and future stages of KOA on any genuine radiograph. The model was validated using a Convolutional Neural Network that was deceived into misclassifying disease stages in transformed images, demonstrating the CycleGAN's ability to effectively transform disease characteristics forward or backward in time. The model was particularly effective in synthesizing future disease states and showed an exceptional ability to retroactively transition late-stage radiographs to earlier stages by eliminating osteophytes and expanding knee joint space, signature characteristics of None or Doubtful KOA. The model's results signify a promising potential for enhancing diagnostic models, data augmentation, and educational and prognostic usage in healthcare. Nevertheless, further refinement, validation, and a broader evaluation process encompassing both CNN-based assessments and expert medical feedback are emphasized for future research and development.
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated unparalleled prowess in mimicking human-like text generation and processing. Among the myriad of applications that benefit from LLMs, automated code generation is increasingly promising. The potential to transform natural language prompts into executable code promises a major shift in software development practices and paves the way for significant reductions in manual coding efforts and the likelihood of human-induced errors. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluates the performance of various LLMs, such as Bard, ChatGPT-3.5, ChatGPT-4, and Claude-2, in generating Python for coding problems. We focus on how levels of prompt specificity impact the accuracy, time efficiency, and space efficiency of the generated code. A benchmark of 104 coding problems, each with four types of prompts with varying degrees of tests and specificity, was employed to examine these aspects comprehensively. Our results indicate significant variations in performance across different LLMs and prompt types, and its key contribution is to reveal the ideal prompting strategy for creating accurate Python functions. This study lays the groundwork for further research in LLM capabilities and suggests practical implications for utilizing LLMs in automated code generation tasks and test-driven development.
Predicting human mobility holds significant practical value, with applications ranging from enhancing disaster risk planning to simulating epidemic spread. In this paper, we present the GeoFormer, a decoder-only transformer model adapted from the GPT architecture to forecast human mobility. Our proposed model is rigorously tested in the context of the HuMob Challenge 2023 -- a competition designed to evaluate the performance of prediction models on standardized datasets to predict human mobility. The challenge leverages two datasets encompassing urban-scale data of 25,000 and 100,000 individuals over a longitudinal period of 75 days. GeoFormer stands out as a top performer in the competition, securing a place in the top-3 ranking. Its success is underscored by performing well on both performance metrics chosen for the competition -- the GEO-BLEU and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) measures. The performance of the GeoFormer on the HuMob Challenge 2023 underscores its potential to make substantial contributions to the field of human mobility prediction, with far-reaching implications for disaster preparedness, epidemic control, and beyond.