A number of industrial applications, such as smart grids, power plant operation, hybrid system management or energy trading, could benefit from improved short-term solar forecasting, addressing the intermittent energy production from solar panels. However, current approaches to modelling the cloud cover dynamics from sky images still lack precision regarding the spatial configuration of clouds, their temporal dynamics and physical interactions with solar radiation. Benefiting from a growing number of large datasets, data driven methods are being developed to address these limitations with promising results. In this study, we compare four commonly used Deep Learning architectures trained to forecast solar irradiance from sequences of hemispherical sky images and exogenous variables. To assess the relative performance of each model, we used the Forecast Skill metric based on the smart persistence model, as well as ramp and time distortion metrics. The results show that encoding spatiotemporal aspects of the sequence of sky images greatly improved the predictions with 10 min ahead Forecast Skill reaching 20.4% on the test year. However, based on the experimental data, we conclude that, with a common setup, Deep Learning models tend to behave just as a 'very smart persistence model', temporally aligned with the persistence model while mitigating its most penalising errors. Thus, despite being captured by the sky cameras, models often miss fundamental events causing large irradiance changes such as clouds obscuring the sun. We hope that our work will contribute to a shift of this approach to irradiance forecasting, from reactive to anticipatory.
Big data trend has enforced the data-centric systems to have continuous fast data streams. In recent years, real-time analytics on stream data has formed into a new research field, which aims to answer queries about what-is-happening-now with a negligible delay. The real challenge with real-time stream data processing is that it is impossible to store instances of data, and therefore online analytical algorithms are utilized. To perform real-time analytics, pre-processing of data should be performed in a way that only a short summary of stream is stored in main memory. In addition, due to high speed of arrival, average processing time for each instance of data should be in such a way that incoming instances are not lost without being captured. Lastly, the learner needs to provide high analytical accuracy measures. Sentinel is a distributed system written in Java that aims to solve this challenge by enforcing both the processing and learning process to be done in distributed form. Sentinel is built on top of Apache Storm, a distributed computing platform. Sentinels learner, Vertical Hoeffding Tree, is a parallel decision tree-learning algorithm based on the VFDT, with ability of enabling parallel classification in distributed environments. Sentinel also uses SpaceSaving to keep a summary of the data stream and stores its summary in a synopsis data structure. Application of Sentinel on Twitter Public Stream API is shown and the results are discussed.
Though deep learning models have taken on commercial and political relevance, many aspects of their training and operation remain poorly understood. This has sparked interest in "science of deep learning" projects, many of which are run at scale and require enormous amounts of time, money, and electricity. But how much of this research really needs to occur at scale? In this paper, we introduce MNIST-1D: a minimalist, low-memory, and low-compute alternative to classic deep learning benchmarks. The training examples are 20 times smaller than MNIST examples yet they differentiate more clearly between linear, nonlinear, and convolutional models which attain 32, 68, and 94% accuracy respectively (these models obtain 94, 99+, and 99+% on MNIST). Then we present example use cases which include measuring the spatial inductive biases of lottery tickets, observing deep double descent, and metalearning an activation function.
Identifying important scholarly literature at an early stage is vital to the academic research community and other stakeholders such as technology companies and government bodies. Due to the sheer amount of research published and the growth of ever-changing interdisciplinary areas, researchers need an efficient way to identify important scholarly work. The number of citations a given research publication has accrued has been used for this purpose, but these take time to occur and longer to accumulate. In this article, we use altmetrics to predict the short-term and long-term citations that a scholarly publication could receive. We build various classification and regression models and evaluate their performance, finding neural networks and ensemble models to perform best for these tasks. We also find that Mendeley readership is the most important factor in predicting the early citations, followed by other factors such as the academic status of the readers (e.g., student, postdoc, professor), followers on Twitter, online post length, author count, and the number of mentions on Twitter, Wikipedia, and across different countries.
Most deep neural networks are considered to be black boxes, meaning their output is hard to interpret. In contrast, logical expressions are considered to be more comprehensible since they use symbols that are semantically close to natural language instead of distributed representations. However, for high-dimensional input data such as images, the individual symbols, i.e. pixels, are not easily interpretable. We introduce the concept of first-order convolutional rules, which are logical rules that can be extracted using a convolutional neural network (CNN), and whose complexity depends on the size of the convolutional filter and not on the dimensionality of the input. Our approach is based on rule extraction from binary neural networks with stochastic local search. We show how to extract rules that are not necessarily short, but characteristic of the input, and easy to visualize. Our experiments show that the proposed approach is able to model the functionality of the neural network while at the same time producing interpretable logical rules.
Solar magnetic fields play a key role in understanding the nature of the coronal phenomena. Global coronal magnetic fields are usually extrapolated from photospheric fields, for which farside data is taken when it was at the frontside, about two weeks earlier. For the first time we have constructed the extrapolations of global magnetic fields using frontside and artificial intelligence (AI)-generated farside magnetic fields at a near-real time basis. We generate the farside magnetograms from three channel farside observations of Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) Ahead (A) and Behind (B) by our deep learning model trained with frontside Solar Dynamics Observatory extreme ultraviolet images and magnetograms. For frontside testing data sets, we demonstrate that the generated magnetic field distributions are consistent with the real ones; not only active regions (ARs), but also quiet regions of the Sun. We make global magnetic field synchronic maps in which conventional farside data are replaced by farside ones generated by our model. The synchronic maps show much better not only the appearance of ARs but also the disappearance of others on the solar surface than before. We use these synchronized magnetic data to extrapolate the global coronal fields using Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model. We show that our results are much more consistent with coronal observations than those of the conventional method in view of solar active regions and coronal holes. We present several positive prospects of our new methodology for the study of solar corona, heliosphere, and space weather.
A considerable amount of mobility data has been accumulated due to the proliferation of location-based service. Nevertheless, compared with mobility data from transportation systems like the GPS module in taxis, this kind of data is commonly sparse in terms of individual trajectories in the sense that users do not access mobile services and contribute their data all the time. Consequently, the sparsity inevitably weakens the practical value of the data even it has a high user penetration rate. To solve this problem, we propose a novel attentional neural network-based model, named AttnMove, to densify individual trajectories by recovering unobserved locations at a fine-grained spatial-temporal resolution. To tackle the challenges posed by sparsity, we design various intra- and inter- trajectory attention mechanisms to better model the mobility regularity of users and fully exploit the periodical pattern from long-term history. We evaluate our model on two real-world datasets, and extensive results demonstrate the performance gain compared with the state-of-the-art methods. This also shows that, by providing high-quality mobility data, our model can benefit a variety of mobility-oriented down-stream applications.
Existing work on data-driven optimization focuses on problems in static environments, but little attention has been paid to problems in dynamic environments. This paper proposes a data-driven optimization algorithm to deal with the challenges presented by the dynamic environments. First, a data stream ensemble learning method is adopted to train the surrogates so that each base learner of the ensemble learns the time-varying objective function in the previous environments. After that, a multi-task evolutionary algorithm is employed to simultaneously optimize the problems in the past environments assisted by the ensemble surrogate. This way, the optimization tasks in the previous environments can be used to accelerate the tracking of the optimum in the current environment. Since the real fitness function is not available for verifying the surrogates in offline data-driven optimization, a support vector domain description that was designed for outlier detection is introduced to select a reliable solution. Empirical results on six dynamic optimization benchmark problems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm compared with four state-of-the-art data-driven optimization algorithms.
Student engagement is a key construct for learning and teaching. While most of the literature explored the student engagement analysis on computer-based settings, this paper extends that focus to classroom instruction. To best examine student visual engagement in the classroom, we conducted a study utilizing the audiovisual recordings of classes at a secondary school over one and a half month's time, acquired continuous engagement labeling per student (N=15) in repeated sessions, and explored computer vision methods to classify engagement levels from faces in the classroom. We trained deep embeddings for attentional and emotional features, training Attention-Net for head pose estimation and Affect-Net for facial expression recognition. We additionally trained different engagement classifiers, consisting of Support Vector Machines, Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron, and Long Short-Term Memory, for both features. The best performing engagement classifiers achieved AUCs of .620 and .720 in Grades 8 and 12, respectively. We further investigated fusion strategies and found score-level fusion either improves the engagement classifiers or is on par with the best performing modality. We also investigated the effect of personalization and found that using only 60-seconds of person-specific data selected by margin uncertainty of the base classifier yielded an average AUC improvement of .084.
Recently, a time-varying quadratic programming (QP) framework that describes the tracking operations of redundant robot manipulators is introduced to handle the kinematic resolutions of many robot control tasks. Based on the generalization of such a time-varying QP framework, two schemes, i.e., the Repetitive Motion Scheme and the Hybrid Torque Scheme, are proposed. However, measurement noises are unavoidable when a redundant robot manipulator is executing a tracking task. To solve this problem, a novel integration-enhanced recurrent neural network (IE-RNN) is proposed in this paper. Associating with the aforementioned two schemes, the tracking task can be accurately completed by IE-RNN. Both theoretical analyses and simulations results prove that the residual errors of IE-RNN can converge to zero under different kinds of measurement noises. Moreover, practical experiments are elaborately made to verify the excellent convergence and strong robustness properties of the proposed IE-RNN.