Hawkes Processes are a type of point process which models self-excitement among time events. It has been used in a myriad of applications, ranging from finance and earthquakes to crime rates and social network activity analysis.Recently, a surge of different tools and algorithms have showed their way up to top-tier Machine Learning conferences. This work aims to give a broad view of the recent advances on the Hawkes Processes modeling and inference to a newcomer to the field.
Multi-label classification (MLC) has recently received increasing interest from the machine learning community. Several studies provide reviews of methods and datasets for MLC and a few provide empirical comparisons of MLC methods. However, they are limited in the number of methods and datasets considered. This work provides a comprehensive empirical study of a wide range of MLC methods on a plethora of datasets from various domains. More specifically, our study evaluates 26 methods on 42 benchmark datasets using 20 evaluation measures. The adopted evaluation methodology adheres to the highest literature standards for designing and executing large scale, time-budgeted experimental studies. First, the methods are selected based on their usage by the community, assuring representation of methods across the MLC taxonomy of methods and different base learners. Second, the datasets cover a wide range of complexity and domains of application. The selected evaluation measures assess the predictive performance and the efficiency of the methods. The results of the analysis identify RFPCT, RFDTBR, ECCJ48, EBRJ48 and AdaBoostMH as best performing methods across the spectrum of performance measures. Whenever a new method is introduced, it should be compared to different subsets of MLC methods, determined on the basis of the different evaluation criteria.
Pull requests are a key part of the collaborative software development and code review process today. However, pull requests can also slow down the software development process when the reviewer(s) or the author do not actively engage with the pull request. In this work, we design an end-to-end service, Nudge, for accelerating overdue pull requests towards completion by reminding the author or the reviewer(s) to engage with their overdue pull requests. First, we use models based on effort estimation and machine learning to predict the completion time for a given pull request. Second, we use activity detection to reduce false positives. Lastly, we use dependency determination to understand the blocker of the pull request and nudge the appropriate actor(author or reviewer(s)). We also do a correlation analysis to understand the statistical relationship between the pull request completion times and various pull request and developer related attributes. Nudge has been deployed on 147 repositories at Microsoft since 2019. We do a large scale evaluation based on the implicit and explicit feedback we received from sending the Nudge notifications on 8,500 pull requests. We observe significant reduction in completion time, by over 60%, for pull requests which were nudged thus increasing the efficiency of the code review process and accelerating the pull request progression.
Graph neural networks for molecular property prediction are frequently underspecified by data and fail to generalise to new scaffolds at test time. A potential solution is Bayesian learning, which can capture our uncertainty in the model parameters. This study benchmarks a set of Bayesian methods applied to a directed MPNN, using the QM9 regression dataset. We find that capturing uncertainty in both readout and message passing parameters yields enhanced predictive accuracy, calibration, and performance on a downstream molecular search task.
Millimeter wave (mmWave) communication is a key component of 5G and beyond. Harvesting the gains of the large bandwidth and low latency at mmWave systems, however, is challenged by the sensitivity of mmWave signals to blockages; a sudden blockage in the line of sight (LOS) link leads to abrupt disconnection, which affects the reliability of the network. In addition, searching for an alternative base station to re-establish the link could result in needless latency overhead. In this paper, we address these challenges collectively by utilizing machine learning to anticipate dynamic blockages proactively. The proposed approach sees a machine learning algorithm learning to predict future blockages by observing what we refer to as the pre-blockage signature. To evaluate our proposed approach, we build a mmWave communication setup with a moving blockage and collect a dataset of received power sequences. Simulation results on a real dataset show that blockage occurrence could be predicted with more than 85% accuracy and the exact time instance of blockage occurrence can be obtained with low error. This highlights the potential of the proposed solution for dynamic blockage prediction and proactive hand-off, which enhances the reliability and latency of future wireless networks.
Existing game-theoretic planning methods assume that the robot knows the objective functions of the other agents a priori while, in practical scenarios, this is rarely the case. This paper introduces LUCIDGames, an inverse optimal control algorithm that is able to estimate the other agents' objective functions in real time, and incorporate those estimates online into a receding-horizon game-theoretic planner. LUCIDGames solves the inverse optimal control problem by recasting it in a recursive parameter-estimation framework. LUCIDGames uses an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to iteratively update a Bayesian estimate of the other agents' cost function parameters, improving that estimate online as more data is gathered from the other agents' observed trajectories. The planner then takes account of the uncertainty in the Bayesian parameter estimates of other agents by planning a trajectory for the robot subject to uncertainty ellipse constraints. The algorithm assumes no explicit communication or coordination between the robot and the other agents in the environment. An MPC implementation of LUCIDGames demonstrates real-time performance on complex autonomous driving scenarios with an update frequency of 40 Hz. Empirical results demonstrate that LUCIDGames improves the robot's performance over existing game-theoretic and traditional MPC planning approaches. Our implementation of LUCIDGames is available at https://github.com/RoboticExplorationLab/LUCIDGames.jl.
Transformer models have obtained remarkable accomplishments in various NLP tasks. However, these models have efficiency issues on long sequences, as the complexity of their self-attention module scales quadratically with the sequence length. To remedy the limitation, we present Memformer, a novel language model that utilizes a single unified memory to encode and retrieve past information. It includes a new optimization scheme, Memory Replay Back-Propagation, which promotes long-range back-propagation through time with a significantly reduced memory requirement. Memformer achieves $\mathcal{O}(n)$ time complexity and $\mathcal{O}(1)$ space complexity in processing long sequences, meaning that the model can handle an infinite length sequence during inference. Our model is also compatible with other self-supervised tasks to further improve the performance on language modeling. Experimental results show that Memformer outperforms the previous long-range sequence models on WikiText-103, including Transformer-XL and compressive Transformer.
Searches for low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) in galaxy surveys are plagued by the presence of a large number of artifacts (e.g., objects blended in the diffuse light from stars and galaxies, Galactic cirrus, star-forming regions in the arms of spiral galaxies, etc.) that have to be rejected through time consuming visual inspection. In future surveys, which are expected to collect hundreds of petabytes of data and detect billions of objects, such an approach will not be feasible. We investigate the use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for the problem of separating LSBGs from artifacts in survey images. We take advantage of the fact that, for the first time, we have available a large number of labeled LSBGs and artifacts from the Dark Energy Survey, that we use to train, validate, and test a CNN model. That model, which we call DeepShadows, achieves a test accuracy of $92.0 \%$, a significant improvement relative to feature-based machine learning models. We also study the ability to use transfer learning to adapt this model to classify objects from the deeper Hyper-Suprime-Cam survey, and we show that after the model is retrained on a very small sample from the new survey, it can reach an accuracy of $87.6\%$. These results demonstrate that CNNs offer a very promising path in the quest to study the low-surface-brightness universe.
In many learning based control methodologies, learning the unknown dynamic model precedes the control phase, while the aim is to control the system such that it remains in some safe region of the state space. In this work our aim is to guarantee safety while learning and control proceed simultaneously. Specifically, we consider the problem of safe learning in nonlinear control-affine systems subject to unknown additive uncertainty. We model uncertainty as a Gaussian signal and use state measurements to learn its mean and covariance. We provide rigorous time-varying bounds on the mean and covariance of the uncertainty and employ them to modify the control input via an optimisation program with safety constraints encoded as a barrier function on the state space. We show that with an arbitrarily large probability we can guarantee that the state will remain in the safe set, while learning and control are carried out simultaneously, provided that a feasible solution exists for the optimisation problem. We provide a secondary formulation of this optimisation that is computationally more efficient. This is based on tightening the safety constraints to counter the uncertainty about the learned mean and covariance. The magnitude of the tightening can be decreased as our confidence in the learned mean and covariance increases (i.e., as we gather more measurements about the environment). Extensions of the method are provided for Gaussian uncertainties with piecewise constant mean and covariance to accommodate more general environments.
It is well-know that deciding consistency for normal answer set programs (ASP) is NP-complete, thus, as hard as the satisfaction problem for classical propositional logic (SAT). The best algorithms to solve these problems take exponential time in the worst case. The exponential time hypothesis (ETH) implies that this result is tight for SAT, that is, SAT cannot be solved in subexponential time. This immediately establishes that the result is also tight for the consistency problem for ASP. However, accounting for the treewidth of the problem, the consistency problem for ASP is slightly harder than SAT: while SAT can be solved by an algorithm that runs in exponential time in the treewidth k, it was recently shown that ASP requires exponential time in k \cdot log(k). This extra cost is due checking that there are no self-supported true atoms due to positive cycles in the program. In this paper, we refine the above result and show that the consistency problem for ASP can be solved in exponential time in k \cdot log({\lambda}) where {\lambda} is the minimum between the treewidth and the size of the largest strongly-connected component in the positive dependency graph of the program. We provide a dynamic programming algorithm that solves the problem and a treewidth-aware reduction from ASP to SAT that adhere to the above limit.