The major finding, of this article, is an ensemble method, but more exactly, a novel, better ranked voting system (and other variations of it), that aims to solve the problem of finding the best candidate to represent the voters. We have the source code on GitHub, for making realistic simulations of elections, based on artificial intelligence for comparing different variations of the algorithm, and other already known algorithms. We have convincing evidence that our algorithm is better than Instant-Runoff Voting, Preferential Block Voting, Single Transferable Vote, and First Past The Post (if certain, natural conditions are met, to support the wisdom of the crowds). By also comparing with the best voter, we demonstrated the wisdom of the crowds, suggesting that democracy (distributed system) is a better option than dictatorship (centralized system), if those certain, natural conditions are met. Voting systems are not restricted to politics, they are ensemble methods for artificial intelligence, but the context of this article is natural intelligence. It is important to find a system that is fair (e.g. freedom of expression on the ballot exists), especially when the outcome of the voting system has social impact: some voting systems have the unfair inevitability to trend (over time) towards the same two major candidates (Duverger's law).
Planning for Autonomous Unmanned Ground Vehicles (AUGV) is still a challenge, especially in difficult, off-road, critical situations. Automatic planning can be used to reach mission objectives, to perform navigation or maneuvers. Most of the time, the problem consists in finding a path from a source to a destination, while satisfying some operational constraints. In a graph without negative cycles, the computation of the single-pair shortest path from a start node to an end node is solved in polynomial time. Additional constraints on the solution path can however make the problem harder to solve. This becomes the case when we need the path to pass through a few mandatory nodes without requiring a specific order of visit. The complexity grows exponentially with the number of mandatory nodes to visit. In this paper, we focus on shortest path search with mandatory nodes on a given connected graph. We propose a hybrid model that combines a constraint-based solver and a graph convolutional neural network to improve search performance. Promising results are obtained on realistic scenarios.
Finding anomalous subsequence in a long time series is a very important but difficult problem. Existing state-of-the-art methods have been focusing on searching for the subsequence that is the most dissimilar to the rest of the subsequences; however, they do not take into account the background patterns that contain the anomalous candidates. As a result, such approaches are likely to miss local anomalies. We introduce a new definition named \textit{semantic discord}, which incorporates the context information from larger subsequences containing the anomaly candidates. We propose an efficient algorithm with a derived lower bound that is up to 3 orders of magnitude faster than the brute force algorithm in real world data. We demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in locating anomalies by extensive experiments. We further explain the interpretability of semantic discord.
Much information available to applied researchers is contained within written language or spoken text. Deep language models such as BERT have achieved unprecedented success in many applications of computational linguistics. However, much less is known about how these models can be used to analyze existing text. We propose a novel method that combines transformer models with network analysis to form a self-referential representation of language use within a corpus of interest. Our approach produces linguistic relations strongly consistent with the underlying model as well as mathematically well-defined operations on them, while reducing the amount of discretionary choices of representation and distance measures. It represents, to the best of our knowledge, the first unsupervised method to extract semantic networks directly from deep language models. We illustrate our approach in a semantic analysis of the term "founder". Using the entire corpus of Harvard Business Review from 1980 to 2020, we find that ties in our network track the semantics of discourse over time, and across contexts, identifying and relating clusters of semantic and syntactic relations. Finally, we discuss how this method can also complement and inform analyses of the behavior of deep learning models.
Financial time series forecasting is, without a doubt, the top choice of computational intelligence for finance researchers from both academia and financial industry due to its broad implementation areas and substantial impact. Machine Learning (ML) researchers came up with various models and a vast number of studies have been published accordingly. As such, a significant amount of surveys exist covering ML for financial time series forecasting studies. Lately, Deep Learning (DL) models started appearing within the field, with results that significantly outperform traditional ML counterparts. Even though there is a growing interest in developing models for financial time series forecasting research, there is a lack of review papers that were solely focused on DL for finance. Hence, our motivation in this paper is to provide a comprehensive literature review on DL studies for financial time series forecasting implementations. We not only categorized the studies according to their intended forecasting implementation areas, such as index, forex, commodity forecasting, but also grouped them based on their DL model choices, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Deep Belief Networks (DBNs), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM). We also tried to envision the future for the field by highlighting the possible setbacks and opportunities, so the interested researchers can benefit.
How is popularity gained online? Is being successful strictly related to rapidly becoming viral in an online platform or is it possible to acquire popularity in a steady and disciplined fashion? What are other temporal characteristics that can unveil the popularity of online content? To answer these questions, we leverage a multi-faceted temporal analysis of the evolution of popular online contents. Here, we present dipm-SC: a multi-dimensional shape-based time-series clustering algorithm with a heuristic to find the optimal number of clusters. First, we validate the accuracy of our algorithm on synthetic datasets generated from benchmark time series models. Second, we show that dipm-SC can uncover meaningful clusters of popularity behaviors in a real-world Twitter dataset. By clustering the multidimensional time-series of the popularity of contents coupled with other domain-specific dimensions, we uncover two main patterns of popularity: bursty and steady temporal behaviors. Moreover, we find that the way popularity is gained over time has no significant impact on the final cumulative popularity.
Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) for semantic segmentation has been attracting attention recently, as it could be beneficial for various label-scarce real-world scenarios (e.g., robot control, autonomous driving, medical imaging, etc.). Despite the significant progress in this field, current works mainly focus on a single-source single-target setting, which cannot handle more practical settings of multiple targets or even unseen targets. In this paper, we investigate open compound domain adaptation (OCDA), which deals with mixed and novel situations at the same time, for semantic segmentation. We present a novel framework based on three main design principles: discover, hallucinate, and adapt. The scheme first clusters compound target data based on style, discovering multiple latent domains (discover). Then, it hallucinates multiple latent target domains in source by using image-translation (hallucinate). This step ensures the latent domains in the source and the target to be paired. Finally, target-to-source alignment is learned separately between domains (adapt). In high-level, our solution replaces a hard OCDA problem with much easier multiple UDA problems. We evaluate our solution on standard benchmark GTA to C-driving, and achieved new state-of-the-art results.
Novel view synthesis is a long-standing problem in machine learning and computer vision. Significant progress has recently been made in developing neural scene representations and rendering techniques that synthesize photorealistic images from arbitrary views. These representations, however, are extremely slow to train and often also slow to render. Inspired by neural variants of image-based rendering, we develop a new neural rendering approach with the goal of quickly learning a high-quality representation which can also be rendered in real-time. Our approach, MetaNLR++, accomplishes this by using a unique combination of a neural shape representation and 2D CNN-based image feature extraction, aggregation, and re-projection. To push representation convergence times down to minutes, we leverage meta learning to learn neural shape and image feature priors which accelerate training. The optimized shape and image features can then be extracted using traditional graphics techniques and rendered in real time. We show that MetaNLR++ achieves similar or better novel view synthesis results in a fraction of the time that competing methods require.
In medicine, survival analysis studies the time duration to events of interest such as mortality. One major challenge is how to deal with multiple competing events (e.g., multiple disease diagnoses). In this work, we propose a transformer-based model that does not make the assumption for the underlying survival distribution and is capable of handling competing events, namely SurvTRACE. We account for the implicit \emph{confounders} in the observational setting in multi-events scenarios, which causes selection bias as the predicted survival probability is influenced by irrelevant factors. To sufficiently utilize the survival data to train transformers from scratch, multiple auxiliary tasks are designed for multi-task learning. The model hence learns a strong shared representation from all these tasks and in turn serves for better survival analysis. We further demonstrate how to inspect the covariate relevance and importance through interpretable attention mechanisms of SurvTRACE, which suffices to great potential in enhancing clinical trial design and new treatment development. Experiments on METABRIC, SUPPORT, and SEER data with 470k patients validate the all-around superiority of our method.
Accurate forecasting of citywide traffic flow has been playing critical role in a variety of spatial-temporal mining applications, such as intelligent traffic control and public risk assessment. While previous work has made significant efforts to learn traffic temporal dynamics and spatial dependencies, two key limitations exist in current models. First, only the neighboring spatial correlations among adjacent regions are considered in most existing methods, and the global inter-region dependency is ignored. Additionally, these methods fail to encode the complex traffic transition regularities exhibited with time-dependent and multi-resolution in nature. To tackle these challenges, we develop a new traffic prediction framework-Spatial-Temporal Graph Diffusion Network (ST-GDN). In particular, ST-GDN is a hierarchically structured graph neural architecture which learns not only the local region-wise geographical dependencies, but also the spatial semantics from a global perspective. Furthermore, a multi-scale attention network is developed to empower ST-GDN with the capability of capturing multi-level temporal dynamics. Experiments on several real-life traffic datasets demonstrate that ST-GDN outperforms different types of state-of-the-art baselines. Source codes of implementations are available at https://github.com/jill001/ST-GDN.