Improved prediction of future user activity in online A/B testing

In online randomized experiments or A/B tests, accurate predictions of participant inclusion rates are of paramount importance. These predictions not only guide experimenters in optimizing the experiment's duration but also enhance the precision of treatment effect estimates. In this paper we present a novel, straightforward, and scalable Bayesian nonparametric approach for predicting the rate at which individuals will be exposed to interventions within the realm of online A/B testing. Our approach stands out by offering dual prediction capabilities: it forecasts both the quantity of new customers expected in future time windows and, unlike available alternative methods, the number of times they will be observed. We derive closed-form expressions for the posterior distributions of the quantities needed to form predictions about future user activity, thereby bypassing the need for numerical algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. After a comprehensive exposition of our model, we test its performance on experiments on real and simulated data, where we show its superior performance with respect to existing alternatives in the literature.

Replication of Impedance Identification Experiments on a Reinforcement-Learning-Controlled Digital Twin of Human Elbows

This study presents a pioneering effort to replicate human neuromechanical experiments within a virtual environment utilising a digital human model. By employing MyoSuite, a state-of-the-art human motion simulation platform enhanced by Reinforcement Learning (RL), multiple types of impedance identification experiments of human elbow were replicated on a musculoskeletal model. We compared the elbow movement controlled by an RL agent with the motion of an actual human elbow in terms of the impedance identified in torque-perturbation experiments. The findings reveal that the RL agent exhibits higher elbow impedance to stabilise the target elbow motion under perturbation than a human does, likely due to its shorter reaction time and superior sensory capabilities. This study serves as a preliminary exploration into the potential of virtual environment simulations for neuromechanical research, offering an initial yet promising alternative to conventional experimental approaches. An RL-controlled digital twin with complete musculoskeletal models of the human body is expected to be useful in designing experiments and validating rehabilitation theory before experiments on real human subjects.

Fast and Accurate Cooperative Radio Map Estimation Enabled by GAN

In the 6G era, real-time radio resource monitoring and management are urged to support diverse wireless-empowered applications. This calls for fast and accurate estimation on the distribution of the radio resources, which is usually represented by the spatial signal power strength over the geographical environment, known as a radio map. In this paper, we present a cooperative radio map estimation (CRME) approach enabled by the generative adversarial network (GAN), called as GAN-CRME, which features fast and accurate radio map estimation without the transmitters' information. The radio map is inferred by exploiting the interaction between distributed received signal strength (RSS) measurements at mobile users and the geographical map using a deep neural network estimator, resulting in low data-acquisition cost and computational complexity. Moreover, a GAN-based learning algorithm is proposed to boost the inference capability of the deep neural network estimator by exploiting the power of generative AI. Simulation results showcase that the proposed GAN-CRME is even capable of coarse error-correction when the geographical map information is inaccurate.

RACER: An LLM-powered Methodology for Scalable Analysis of Semi-structured Mental Health Interviews

Semi-structured interviews (SSIs) are a commonly employed data-collection method in healthcare research, offering in-depth qualitative insights into subject experiences. Despite their value, the manual analysis of SSIs is notoriously time-consuming and labor-intensive, in part due to the difficulty of extracting and categorizing emotional responses, and challenges in scaling human evaluation for large populations. In this study, we develop RACER, a Large Language Model (LLM) based expert-guided automated pipeline that efficiently converts raw interview transcripts into insightful domain-relevant themes and sub-themes. We used RACER to analyze SSIs conducted with 93 healthcare professionals and trainees to assess the broad personal and professional mental health impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. RACER achieves moderately high agreement with two human evaluators (72%), which approaches the human inter-rater agreement (77%). Interestingly, LLMs and humans struggle with similar content involving nuanced emotional, ambivalent/dialectical, and psychological statements. Our study highlights the opportunities and challenges in using LLMs to improve research efficiency and opens new avenues for scalable analysis of SSIs in healthcare research.

Image-Caption Encoding for Improving Zero-Shot Generalization

Recent advances in vision-language models have combined contrastive approaches with generative methods to achieve state-of-the-art (SOTA) on downstream inference tasks like zero-shot image classification. However, a persistent issue of these models for image classification is their out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization capabilities. We first show that when an OOD data point is misclassified, the correct class can be typically found in the Top-K predicted classes. In order to steer the model prediction toward the correct class within the top predicted classes, we propose the Image-Caption Encoding (ICE) method, a straightforward approach that directly enforces consistency between the image-conditioned and caption-conditioned predictions at evaluation time only. Intuitively, we take advantage of unique properties of the generated captions to guide our local search for the correct class label within the Top-K predicted classes. We show that our method can be easily combined with other SOTA methods to enhance Top-1 OOD accuracies by 0.5% on average and up to 3% on challenging datasets. Our code: https://github.com/Chris210634/ice

How phonemes contribute to deep speaker models?

Which phonemes convey more speaker traits is a long-standing question, and various perception experiments were conducted with human subjects. For speaker recognition, studies were conducted with the conventional statistical models and the drawn conclusions are more or less consistent with the perception results. However, which phonemes are more important with modern deep neural models is still unexplored, due to the opaqueness of the decision process. This paper conducts a novel study for the attribution of phonemes with two types of deep speaker models that are based on TDNN and CNN respectively, from the perspective of model explanation. Specifically, we conducted the study by two post-explanation methods: LayerCAM and Time Align Occlusion (TAO). Experimental results showed that: (1) At the population level, vowels are more important than consonants, confirming the human perception studies. However, fricatives are among the most unimportant phonemes, which contrasts with previous studies. (2) At the speaker level, a large between-speaker variation is observed regarding phoneme importance, indicating that whether a phoneme is important or not is largely speaker-dependent.

Time Variability of FibrillatoryWaves Energy Predicts Long-Term Outcome of Atrial Fibrillation Concomitant Surgical Ablation

Surgical ablation (SA) is the most effective procedure to terminate atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients requiring concomitant open heart surgery. However, considering the great stress provoked in the patients heart, along with the benefits of anticipating antiarrhythmic therapeutical decisions, preoperative prediction of long term failure of the procedure is an interesting clinical challenge. Hence, the present work introduces a novel algorithm to anticipate SA outcome after one year of follow up by just analyzing the surface ECG. The method firstly extracts fibrillatory waves reflected on standard lead V1 using an adaptive QRST cancellation approach. The resulting signal is then segmented into 1 s length intervals and wavelet energy is computed for all of them. Finally, the coefficient of variation of the time series obtained for the 7th scale is computed. Analyzing 20 second length preoperative ECG excerpts from 53 persistent AF patients undergoing concomitant openheart surgery, only the proposed method reported statistically significant differences between the patients who relapsed to AF and those who maintained sinus rhythm during the follow up. The algorithm also provided values of sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy between 10 and 20% better than the well established dominant atrial frequency and fibrillatory waves amplitude, thus suggesting to be a promising predictor of AF recurrence after SA.

On the generalization of learned constraints for ASP solving in temporal domains

The representation of a dynamic problem in ASP usually boils down to using copies of variables and constraints, one for each time stamp, no matter whether it is directly encoded or via an action or temporal language. The multiplication of variables and constraints is commonly done during grounding and the solver is completely ignorant about the temporal relationship among the different instances. On the other hand, a key factor in the performance of today's ASP solvers is conflict-driven constraint learning. Our question is now whether a constraint learned for particular time steps can be generalized and reused at other time stamps, and ultimately whether this enhances the overall solver performance on temporal problems. Knowing full well the domain of time, we study conditions under which learned dynamic constraints can be generalized. We propose a simple translation of the original logic program such that, for the translated programs, the learned constraints can be generalized to other time points. Additionally, we identify a property of temporal problems that allows us to generalize all learned constraints to all time steps. It turns out that this property is satisfied by many planning problems. Finally, we empirically evaluate the impact of adding the generalized constraints to an ASP solver

Zero-shot Generative Large Language Models for Systematic Review Screening Automation

Systematic reviews are crucial for evidence-based medicine as they comprehensively analyse published research findings on specific questions. Conducting such reviews is often resource- and time-intensive, especially in the screening phase, where abstracts of publications are assessed for inclusion in a review. This study investigates the effectiveness of using zero-shot large language models~(LLMs) for automatic screening. We evaluate the effectiveness of eight different LLMs and investigate a calibration technique that uses a predefined recall threshold to determine whether a publication should be included in a systematic review. Our comprehensive evaluation using five standard test collections shows that instruction fine-tuning plays an important role in screening, that calibration renders LLMs practical for achieving a targeted recall, and that combining both with an ensemble of zero-shot models saves significant screening time compared to state-of-the-art approaches.

TripleSurv: Triplet Time-adaptive Coordinate Loss for Survival Analysis

A core challenge in survival analysis is to model the distribution of censored time-to-event data, where the event of interest may be a death, failure, or occurrence of a specific event. Previous studies have showed that ranking and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)loss functions are widely-used for survival analysis. However, ranking loss only focus on the ranking of survival time and does not consider potential effect of samples for exact survival time values. Furthermore, the MLE is unbounded and easily subject to outliers (e.g., censored data), which may cause poor performance of modeling. To handle the complexities of learning process and exploit valuable survival time values, we propose a time-adaptive coordinate loss function, TripleSurv, to achieve adaptive adjustments by introducing the differences in the survival time between sample pairs into the ranking, which can encourage the model to quantitatively rank relative risk of pairs, ultimately enhancing the accuracy of predictions. Most importantly, the TripleSurv is proficient in quantifying the relative risk between samples by ranking ordering of pairs, and consider the time interval as a trade-off to calibrate the robustness of model over sample distribution. Our TripleSurv is evaluated on three real-world survival datasets and a public synthetic dataset. The results show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and exhibits good model performance and robustness on modeling various sophisticated data distributions with different censor rates. Our code will be available upon acceptance.