Early Anomaly Detection in Time Series: A Hierarchical Approach for Predicting Critical Health Episodes

The early detection of anomalous events in time series data is essential in many domains of application. In this paper we deal with critical health events, which represent a significant cause of mortality in intensive care units of hospitals. The timely prediction of these events is crucial for mitigating their consequences and improving healthcare. One of the most common approaches to tackle early anomaly detection problems is standard classification methods. In this paper we propose a novel method that uses a layered learning architecture to address these tasks. One key contribution of our work is the idea of pre-conditional events, which denote arbitrary but computable relaxed versions of the event of interest. We leverage this idea to break the original problem into two hierarchical layers, which we hypothesize are easier to solve. The results suggest that the proposed approach leads to a better performance relative to state of the art approaches for critical health episode prediction.

New metal-plastic hybrid additive manufacturing strategy: Fabrication of arbitrary metal-patterns on external and even internal surfaces of 3D plastic structures

Constructing precise micro-nano metal patterns on complex three-dimensional (3D) plastic parts allows the fabrication of functional devices for advanced applications. However, this patterning is currently expensive and requires complex processes with long manufacturing lead time. The present work demonstrates a process for the fabrication of micro-nano 3D metal-plastic composite structures with arbitrarily complex shapes. In this approach, a light-cured resin is modified to prepare an active precursor capable of allowing subsequent electroless plating (ELP). A multi-material digital light processing 3D printer was newly developed to enable the fabrication of parts containing regions made of either standard resin or active precursor resin nested within each other. Selective 3D ELP processing of such parts provided various metal-plastic composite parts having complicated hollow micro-nano structures with specific topological relationships on a size scale as small as 40 um. Using this technique, 3D metal topologies that cannot be manufactured by traditional methods are possible, and metal patterns can be produced inside plastic parts as a means of further miniaturizing electronic devices. The proposed method can also generate metal coatings exhibiting improved adhesion of metal to plastic substrate. Based on this technique, several sensors composed of different functional nonmetallic materials and specific metal patterns were designed and fabricated. The present results demonstrate the viability of the proposed method and suggest potential applications in the fields of smart 3D micro-nano electronics, 3D wearable devices, micro/nano-sensors, and health care.

Adversarial attacks against Bayesian forecasting dynamic models

The last decade has seen the rise of Adversarial Machine Learning (AML). This discipline studies how to manipulate data to fool inference engines, and how to protect those systems against such manipulation attacks. Extensive work on attacks against regression and classification systems is available, while little attention has been paid to attacks against time series forecasting systems. In this paper, we propose a decision analysis based attacking strategy that could be utilized against Bayesian forecasting dynamic models.

Fast Federated Edge Learning with Overlapped Communication and Computation and Channel-Aware Fair Client Scheduling

We consider federated edge learning (FEEL) over wireless fading channels taking into account the downlink and uplink channel latencies, and the random computation delays at the clients. We speed up the training process by overlapping the communication with computation. With fountain coded transmission of the global model update, clients receive the global model asynchronously, and start performing local computations right away. Then, we propose a dynamic client scheduling policy, called MRTP, for uploading local model updates to the parameter server (PS), which, at any time, schedules the client with the minimum remaining upload time. However, MRTP can lead to biased participation of clients in the update process, resulting in performance degradation in non-iid data scenarios. To overcome this, we propose two alternative schemes with fairness considerations, termed as age-aware MRTP (A-MRTP), and opportunistically fair MRTP (OF-MRTP). In A-MRTP, the remaining clients are scheduled according to the ratio between their remaining transmission time and the update age, while in OF-MRTP, the selection mechanism utilizes the long term average channel rate of the clients to further reduce the latency while ensuring fair participation of the clients. It is shown through numerical simulations that OF-MRTP provides significant reduction in latency without sacrificing test accuracy.

Contextual Exploration Using a Linear Approximation Method Based on Satisficing

Deep reinforcement learning has enabled human-level or even super-human performance in various types of games. However, the amount of exploration required for learning is often quite large. Deep reinforcement learning also has super-human performance in that no human being would be able to achieve such amounts of exploration. To address this problem, we focus on the \textit{satisficing} policy, which is a qualitatively different approach from that of existing optimization algorithms. Thus, we propose Linear RS (LinRS), which is a type of satisficing algorithm and a linear extension of risk-sensitive satisficing (RS), for application to a wider range of tasks. The generalization of RS provides an algorithm to reduce the volume of exploratory actions by adopting a different approach from existing optimization algorithms. LinRS utilizes linear regression and multiclass classification to linearly approximate both the action value and proportion of action selections required in the RS calculation. The results of our experiments indicate that LinRS reduced the number of explorations and run time compared to those of existing algorithms in contextual bandit problems. These results suggest that a further generalization of satisficing algorithms may be useful for complex environments, including those that are to be handled with deep reinforcement learning.

Generate Point Clouds with Multiscale Details from Graph-Represented Structures

Generating point clouds from structures is a highly valued method to control the generation of point clouds.One of the major problems in structure-based controllable point cloud generation is the lack of controllability to details, as details are missing in most existing representations of structures.It can be observed that definitions of details and structures are subjective.Details can be treated as structures on small scale.To represent structures in different scales at the same time, we present a graph-based representation of structures called the Multiscale Structure Graph(MSG).By treating details as small-scale structures, similar patterns of local structures can be found at different scales, places, densities, and angles.The knowledge learned from a pattern can be transferred to similar patterns in other scales.An encoding and generation mechanism, namely the Multiscale Structure-based Point Cloud Generator(MSPCG), for generating dense point clouds from the MSG is proposed, which can simultaneously learn local patterns with miscellaneous spatial properties.Our MSPCG also has great generalization ability and scalability.An MSPCG trained on the ShapeNet dataset can enable multi-scale edition on point clouds, generate point clouds for unseen categories, and generate indoor scenes from a given structure. The experimental results show that our method significantly outperforms baseline methods.

COVID-19 Time-series Prediction by Joint Dictionary Learning and Online NMF

Predicting the spread and containment of COVID-19 is a challenge of utmost importance that the broader scientific community is currently facing. One of the main sources of difficulty is that a very limited amount of daily COVID-19 case data is available, and with few exceptions, the majority of countries are currently in the "exponential spread stage," and thus there is scarce information available which would enable one to predict the phase transition between spread and containment. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to predicting the spread of COVID-19 based on dictionary learning and online nonnegative matrix factorization (online NMF). The key idea is to learn dictionary patterns of short evolution instances of the new daily cases in multiple countries at the same time, so that their latent correlation structures are captured in the dictionary patterns. We first learn such patterns by minibatch learning from the entire time-series and then further adapt them to the time-series by online NMF. As we progressively adapt and improve the learned dictionary patterns to the more recent observations, we also use them to make one-step predictions by the partial fitting. Lastly, by recursively applying the one-step predictions, we can extrapolate our predictions into the near future. Our prediction results can be directly attributed to the learned dictionary patterns due to their interpretability.

Bayesian Sample Size Prediction for Online Activity

In many contexts it is useful to predict the number of individuals in some population who will initiate a particular activity during a given period. For example, the number of users who will install a software update, the number of customers who will use a new feature on a website or who will participate in an A/B test. In practical settings, there is heterogeneity amongst individuals with regard to the distribution of time until they will initiate. For these reasons it is inappropriate to assume that the number of new individuals observed on successive days will be identically distributed. Given observations on the number of unique users participating in an initial period, we present a simple but novel Bayesian method for predicting the number of additional individuals who will subsequently participate during a subsequent period. We illustrate the performance of the method in predicting sample size in online experimentation.

Model Learning and Contextual Controller Tuning for Autonomous Racing

Model predictive control has been widely used in the field of autonomous racing and many data-driven approaches have been proposed to improve the closed-loop performance and to minimize lap time. However, it is often overlooked that a change in the environmental conditions, e.g., when it starts raining, it is not only required to adapt the predictive model but also the controller parameters need to be adjusted. In this paper, we address this challenge with the goal of requiring only few data. The key novelty of the proposed approach is that we leverage the learned dynamics model to encode the environmental condition as context. This insight allows us to employ contextual Bayesian optimization, thus accelerating the controller tuning problem when the environment changes and to transfer knowledge across different cars. The proposed framework is validated on an experimental platform with 1:28 scale RC race cars. We perform an extensive evaluation with more than 2'000 driven laps demonstrating that our approach successfully optimizes the lap time across different contexts faster compared to standard Bayesian optimization.

Fast Neural Representations for Direct Volume Rendering

Despite the potential of neural scene representations to effectively compress 3D scalar fields at high reconstruction quality, the computational complexity of the training and data reconstruction step using scene representation networks limits their use in practical applications. In this paper, we analyze whether scene representation networks can be modified to reduce these limitations and whether these architectures can also be used for temporal reconstruction tasks. We propose a novel design of scene representation networks using GPU tensor cores to integrate the reconstruction seamlessly into on-chip raytracing kernels. Furthermore, we investigate the use of image-guided network training as an alternative to classical data-driven approaches, and we explore the potential strengths and weaknesses of this alternative regarding quality and speed. As an alternative to spatial super-resolution approaches for time-varying fields, we propose a solution that builds upon latent-space interpolation to enable random access reconstruction at arbitrary granularity. We summarize our findings in the form of an assessment of the strengths and limitations of scene representation networks for scientific visualization tasks and outline promising future research directions in this field.