In the realm of cryptocurrency, the prediction of Bitcoin prices has garnered substantial attention due to its potential impact on financial markets and investment strategies. This paper propose a comparative study on hybrid machine learning algorithms and leverage on enhancing model interpretability. Specifically, linear regression(OLS, LASSO), long-short term memory(LSTM), decision tree regressors are introduced. Through the grounded experiments, we observe linear regressor achieves the best performance among candidate models. For the interpretability, we carry out a systematic overview on the preprocessing techniques of time-series statistics, including decomposition, auto-correlational function, exponential triple forecasting, which aim to excavate latent relations and complex patterns appeared in the financial time-series forecasting. We believe this work may derive more attention and inspire more researches in the realm of time-series analysis and its realistic applications.
Systems of intelligent control of manual operations in industrial production are being implemented in many industries nowadays. Such systems use high-resolution cameras and computer vision algorithms to automatically track the operator's manipulations and prevent technological errors in the assembly process. At the same time compliance with safety regulations in the workspace is monitored. As a result, the defect rate of manufactured products and the number of accidents during the manual assembly of any device are decreased. Before implementing an intelligent control system into a real production it is necessary to calculate its efficiency. In order to do it experiments on the stand for manual operations control systems were carried out. This paper proposes the methodology for calculating the efficiency indicators. This mathematical approach is based on the IoU calculation of real- and predicted-time intervals between assembly stages. The results show high precision in tracking the validity of manual assembly and do not depend on the duration of the assembly process.
Fine-tuning and inference with large Language Models (LM) are generally known to be expensive. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning over pretrained LMs reduces training memory by updating a small number of LM parameters but does not improve inference efficiency. Structured pruning improves LM inference efficiency by removing consistent parameter blocks, yet often increases training memory and time. To improve both training and inference efficiency, we introduce APT that adaptively prunes and tunes parameters for the LMs. At the early stage of fine-tuning, APT dynamically adds salient tuning parameters for fast and accurate convergence while discarding unimportant parameters for efficiency. Compared to baselines, our experiments show that APT maintains up to 98% task performance when pruning RoBERTa and T5 models with 40% parameters left while keeping 86.4% LLaMA models' performance with 70% parameters remained. Furthermore, APT speeds up LMs fine-tuning by up to 8x and reduces large LMs memory training footprint by up to 70%.
While the study of unit-cost Multi-Agent Pathfinding (MAPF) problems has been popular, many real-world problems require continuous time and costs due to various movement models. In this context, this paper studies symmetry-breaking enhancements for Continuous-Time Conflict-Based Search (CCBS), a solver for continuous-time MAPF. Resolving conflict symmetries in MAPF can require an exponential amount of work. We adapt known enhancements from unit-cost domains for CCBS: bypassing, which resolves cost symmetries and biclique constraints which resolve spatial conflict symmetries. We formulate a novel combination of biclique constraints with disjoint splitting for spatial conflict symmetries. Finally, we show empirically that these enhancements yield a statistically significant performance improvement versus previous state of the art, solving problems for up to 10% or 20% more agents in the same amount of time on dense graphs.
Convolutional neural networks have shown to be widely applicable to a large number of fields when large amounts of labelled data are available. The recent trend has been to use models with increasingly larger sets of tunable parameters to increase model accuracy, reduce model loss, or create more adversarially robust models -- goals that are often at odds with one another. In particular, recent theoretical work raises questions about the ability for even larger models to generalize to data outside of the controlled train and test sets. As such, we examine the role of the number of hidden layers in the ResNet model, demonstrated on the MNIST, CIFAR10, CIFAR100 datasets. We test a variety of parameters including the size of the model, the floating point precision, and the noise level of both the training data and the model output. To encapsulate the model's predictive power and computational cost, we provide a method that uses induced failures to model the probability of failure as a function of time and relate that to a novel metric that allows us to quickly determine whether or not the cost of training a model outweighs the cost of attacking it. Using this approach, we are able to approximate the expected failure rate using a small number of specially crafted samples rather than increasingly larger benchmark datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of this technique on both the MNIST and CIFAR10 datasets using 8-, 16-, 32-, and 64-bit floating-point numbers, various data pre-processing techniques, and several attacks on five configurations of the ResNet model. Then, using empirical measurements, we examine the various trade-offs between cost, robustness, latency, and reliability to find that larger models do not significantly aid in adversarial robustness despite costing significantly more to train.
Conventional embedding-based models approach event time prediction in temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) as a ranking problem. However, they often fall short in capturing essential temporal relationships such as order and distance. In this paper, we propose TEILP, a logical reasoning framework that naturaly integrates such temporal elements into knowledge graph predictions. We first convert TKGs into a temporal event knowledge graph (TEKG) which has a more explicit representation of time in term of nodes of the graph. The TEKG equips us to develop a differentiable random walk approach to time prediction. Finally, we introduce conditional probability density functions, associated with the logical rules involving the query interval, using which we arrive at the time prediction. We compare TEILP with state-of-the-art methods on five benchmark datasets. We show that our model achieves a significant improvement over baselines while providing interpretable explanations. In particular, we consider several scenarios where training samples are limited, event types are imbalanced, and forecasting the time of future events based on only past events is desired. In all these cases, TEILP outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of robustness.
With the rise of real-time rendering and the evolution of display devices, there is a growing demand for post-processing methods that offer high-resolution content in a high frame rate. Existing techniques often suffer from quality and latency issues due to the disjointed treatment of frame supersampling and extrapolation. In this paper, we recognize the shared context and mechanisms between frame supersampling and extrapolation, and present a novel framework, Space-time Supersampling (STSS). By integrating them into a unified framework, STSS can improve the overall quality with lower latency. To implement an efficient architecture, we treat the aliasing and warping holes unified as reshading regions and put forth two key components to compensate the regions, namely Random Reshading Masking (RRM) and Efficient Reshading Module (ERM). Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves superior visual fidelity compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Notably, the performance is achieved within only 4ms, saving up to 75\% of time against the conventional two-stage pipeline that necessitates 17ms.
Aphasia, a language disorder primarily caused by a stroke, is traditionally diagnosed using behavioral language tests. However, these tests are time-consuming, require manual interpretation by trained clinicians, suffer from low ecological validity, and diagnosis can be biased by comorbid motor and cognitive problems present in aphasia. In this study, we introduce an automated screening tool for speech processing impairments in aphasia that relies on time-locked brain responses to speech, known as neural tracking, within a deep learning framework. We modeled electroencephalography (EEG) responses to acoustic, segmentation, and linguistic speech representations of a story using convolutional neural networks trained on a large sample of healthy participants, serving as a model for intact neural tracking of speech. Subsequently, we evaluated our models on an independent sample comprising 26 individuals with aphasia (IWA) and 22 healthy controls. Our results reveal decreased tracking of all speech representations in IWA. Utilizing a support vector machine classifier with neural tracking measures as input, we demonstrate high accuracy in aphasia detection at the individual level (85.42\%) in a time-efficient manner (requiring 9 minutes of EEG data). Given its high robustness, time efficiency, and generalizability to unseen data, our approach holds significant promise for clinical applications.
We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies' potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve's 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.
A near-field wideband beamforming scheme is investigated for reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS) assisted multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems, in which a deep learning-based end-to-end (E2E) optimization framework is proposed to maximize the system spectral efficiency. To deal with the near-field double beam split effect, the base station is equipped with frequency-dependent hybrid precoding architecture by introducing sub-connected true time delay (TTD) units, while two specific RIS architectures, namely true time delay-based RIS (TTD-RIS) and virtual subarray-based RIS (SA-RIS), are exploited to realize the frequency-dependent passive beamforming at the RIS. Furthermore, the efficient E2E beamforming models without explicit channel state information are proposed, which jointly exploits the uplink channel training module and the downlink wideband beamforming module. In the proposed network architecture of the E2E models, the classical communication signal processing methods, i.e., polarized filtering and sparsity transform, are leveraged to develop a signal-guided beamforming network. Numerical results show that the proposed E2E models have superior beamforming performance and robustness to conventional beamforming benchmarks. Furthermore, the tradeoff between the beamforming gain and the hardware complexity is investigated for different frequency-dependent RIS architectures, in which the TTD-RIS can achieve better spectral efficiency than the SA-RIS while requiring additional energy consumption and hardware cost.