Cascaded Deep Hybrid Models for Multistep Household Energy Consumption Forecasting

Sustainability requires increased energy efficiency with minimal waste. The future power systems should thus provide high levels of flexibility iin controling energy consumption. Precise projections of future energy demand/load at the aggregate and on the individual site levels are of great importance for decision makers and professionals in the energy industry. Forecasting energy loads has become more advantageous for energy providers and customers, allowing them to establish an efficient production strategy to satisfy demand. This study introduces two hybrid cascaded models for forecasting multistep household power consumption in different resolutions. The first model integrates Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT), as an efficient signal preprocessing technique, with Convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). The second hybrid model combines SWT with a self-attention based neural network architecture named transformer. The major constraint of using time-frequency analysis methods such as SWT in multistep energy forecasting problems is that they require sequential signals, making signal reconstruction problematic in multistep forecasting applications.The cascaded models can efficiently address this problem through using the recursive outputs. Experimental results show that the proposed hybrid models achieve superior prediction performance compared to the existing multistep power consumption prediction methods. The results will pave the way for more accurate and reliable forecasting of household power consumption.

Real-time Emotion Appraisal with Circumplex Model for Human-Robot Interaction

Emotions are the intrinsic or extrinsic representations of our experiences. The importance of emotions during a human-human interaction is immense as it formulates the basis of our interaction framework. There are several approaches in psychology to evaluate emotional states in humans based on the perceived stimuli. However, the topic has been less explored as far as human-robot interaction is concerned. This paper uses an appropriate emotion appraisal mechanism from psychology, generating an emotional state in a humanoid robot on-the-fly during human-robot interaction. Since the exhibition of only six basic emotions is not sufficient to cater to diverse situations, the use of the Circumplex Model in this work has allowed the life-sized robot called ROBIN to experience 28 emotional states in different interaction scenarios. Realistic robot behaviour has been generated based on the proposed appraisal system in various interaction scenarios.

Enhancing Adversarial Robustness via Test-time Transformation Ensembling

Deep learning models are prone to being fooled by imperceptible perturbations known as adversarial attacks. In this work, we study how equipping models with Test-time Transformation Ensembling (TTE) can work as a reliable defense against such attacks. While transforming the input data, both at train and test times, is known to enhance model performance, its effects on adversarial robustness have not been studied. Here, we present a comprehensive empirical study of the impact of TTE, in the form of widely-used image transforms, on adversarial robustness. We show that TTE consistently improves model robustness against a variety of powerful attacks without any need for re-training, and that this improvement comes at virtually no trade-off with accuracy on clean samples. Finally, we show that the benefits of TTE transfer even to the certified robustness domain, in which TTE provides sizable and consistent improvements.

Safety Certification for Stochastic Systems via Neural Barrier Functions

Providing non-trivial certificates of safety for non-linear stochastic systems is an important open problem that limits the wider adoption of autonomous systems in safety-critical applications. One promising solution to address this problem is barrier functions. The composition of a barrier function with a stochastic system forms a supermartingale, thus enabling the computation of the probability that the system stays in a safe set over a finite time horizon via martingale inequalities. However, existing approaches to find barrier functions for stochastic systems generally rely on convex optimization programs that restrict the search of a barrier to a small class of functions such as low degree SoS polynomials and can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we parameterize a barrier function as a neural network and show that techniques for robust training of neural networks can be successfully employed to find neural barrier functions. Specifically, we leverage bound propagation techniques to certify that a neural network satisfies the conditions to be a barrier function via linear programming and then employ the resulting bounds at training time to enforce the satisfaction of these conditions. We also present a branch-and-bound scheme that makes the certification framework scalable. We show that our approach outperforms existing methods in several case studies and often returns certificates of safety that are orders of magnitude larger.

Universality and approximation bounds for echo state networks with random weights

We study the uniform approximation of echo state networks with randomly generated internal weights. These models, in which only the readout weights are optimized during training, have made empirical success in learning dynamical systems. We address the representational capacity of these models by showing that they are universal under weak conditions. Our main result gives a sufficient condition for the activation function and a sampling procedure for the internal weights so that echo state networks can approximate any continuous casual time-invariant operators with high probability. In particular, for ReLU activation, we quantify the approximation error of echo state networks for sufficiently regular operators.

Real-Time Event-Based Tracking and Detection for Maritime Environments

Event cameras are ideal for object tracking applications due to their ability to capture fast-moving objects while mitigating latency and data redundancy. Existing event-based clustering and feature tracking approaches for surveillance and object detection work well in the majority of cases, but fall short in a maritime environment. Our application of maritime vessel detection and tracking requires a process that can identify features and output a confidence score representing the likelihood that the feature was produced by a vessel, which may trigger a subsequent alert or activate a classification system. However, the maritime environment presents unique challenges such as the tendency of waves to produce the majority of events, demanding the majority of computational processing and producing false positive detections. By filtering redundant events and analyzing the movement of each event cluster, we can identify and track vessels while ignoring shorter lived and erratic features such as those produced by waves.

Trial2Vec: Zero-Shot Clinical Trial Document Similarity Search using Self-Supervision

Clinical trials are essential for drug development but are extremely expensive and time-consuming to conduct. It is beneficial to study similar historical trials when designing a clinical trial. However, lengthy trial documents and lack of labeled data make trial similarity search difficult. We propose a zero-shot clinical trial retrieval method, Trial2Vec, which learns through self-supervision without annotating similar clinical trials. Specifically, the meta-structure of trial documents (e.g., title, eligibility criteria, target disease) along with clinical knowledge (e.g., UMLS knowledge base https://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/umls/index.html) are leveraged to automatically generate contrastive samples. Besides, Trial2Vec encodes trial documents considering meta-structure thus producing compact embeddings aggregating multi-aspect information from the whole document. We show that our method yields medically interpretable embeddings by visualization and it gets a 15% average improvement over the best baselines on precision/recall for trial retrieval, which is evaluated on our labeled 1600 trial pairs. In addition, we prove the pre-trained embeddings benefit the downstream trial outcome prediction task over 240k trials.

A prediction perspective on the Wiener-Hopf equations for discrete time series

The Wiener-Hopf equations are a Toeplitz system of linear equations that have several applications in time series. These include the update and prediction step of the stationary Kalman filter equations and the prediction of bivariate time series. The Wiener-Hopf technique is the classical tool for solving the equations, and is based on a comparison of coefficients in a Fourier series expansion. The purpose of this note is to revisit the (discrete) Wiener-Hopf equations and obtain an alternative expression for the solution that is more in the spirit of time series analysis. Specifically, we propose a solution to the Wiener-Hopf equations that combines linear prediction with deconvolution. The solution of the Wiener-Hopf equations requires one to obtain the spectral factorization of the underlying spectral density function. For general spectral density functions this is infeasible. Therefore, it is usually assumed that the spectral density is rational, which allows one to obtain a computationally tractable solution. This leads to an approximation error when the underlying spectral density is not a rational function. We use the proposed solution together with Baxter's inequality to derive an error bound for the rational spectral density approximation.

Multi-Octave Interference Detectors with Sub-Microsecond Response

High-power interferers are one of the main hurdles in wideband communication channels. To that end, this paper presents a wideband interferer detection method. The presented technique operates by sampling the incoming signal as an input, and produces the frequency and the power readings of the detected interferer. The detection method relies on driving an open circuit stub, where the voltage is proportional to the power of the interferer, and the standing wave pattern is an indicator of its frequency. This approach is feasible over multi-octave bandwidth with a wide power dynamic range. The concept is analyzed for design and optimization, and a prototype is built for a proof-of-concept. The measured results demonstrate the ability to detect an interferer within the 1--16 GHz frequency range, with a power dynamic range between -20 to 20 dBm. The detection concept is also fitted with different types of tunable bandstop filters (BSFs) for automatic detection and suppression of the interferer if its power exceeds a programmable threshold. With a measured response time of 500 ns, the presented method is a technology enabler for wideband receivers.

Faster Diffusion Cardiac MRI with Deep Learning-based breath hold reduction

Diffusion Tensor Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (DT-CMR) enables us to probe the microstructural arrangement of cardiomyocytes within the myocardium in vivo and non-invasively, which no other imaging modality allows. This innovative technology could revolutionise the ability to perform cardiac clinical diagnosis, risk stratification, prognosis and therapy follow-up. However, DT-CMR is currently inefficient with over six minutes needed to acquire a single 2D static image. Therefore, DT-CMR is currently confined to research but not used clinically. We propose to reduce the number of repetitions needed to produce DT-CMR datasets and subsequently de-noise them, decreasing the acquisition time by a linear factor while maintaining acceptable image quality. Our proposed approach, based on Generative Adversarial Networks, Vision Transformers, and Ensemble Learning, performs significantly and considerably better than previous proposed approaches, bringing single breath-hold DT-CMR closer to reality.