This paper proposes a high-fidelity simulation framework that can estimate the potential safety benefits of vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) pedestrian safety strategies. This simulator can support cooperative perception algorithms in the loop by simulating the environmental conditions, traffic conditions, and pedestrian characteristics at the same time. Besides, the benefit estimation model applied in our framework can systematically quantify both the risk conflict (non-crash condition) and the severity of the pedestrian's injuries (crash condition). An experiment was conducted in this paper that built a digital twin of a crowded urban intersection in China. The result shows that our framework is efficient for safety benefit estimation of V2I pedestrian safety strategies.
Increased use of sensor signals from wearable devices as rich sources of physiological data has sparked growing interest in developing health monitoring systems to identify changes in an individual's health profile. Indeed, machine learning models for sensor signals have enabled a diverse range of healthcare related applications including early detection of abnormalities, fertility tracking, and adverse drug effect prediction. However, these models can fail to account for the dependent high-dimensional nature of the underlying sensor signals. In this paper, we introduce Latent Temporal Flows, a method for multivariate time-series modeling tailored to this setting. We assume that a set of sequences is generated from a multivariate probabilistic model of an unobserved time-varying low-dimensional latent vector. Latent Temporal Flows simultaneously recovers a transformation of the observed sequences into lower-dimensional latent representations via deep autoencoder mappings, and estimates a temporally-conditioned probabilistic model via normalizing flows. Using data from the Apple Heart and Movement Study (AH&MS), we illustrate promising forecasting performance on these challenging signals. Additionally, by analyzing two and three dimensional representations learned by our model, we show that we can identify participants' $\text{VO}_2\text{max}$, a main indicator and summary of cardio-respiratory fitness, using only lower-level signals. Finally, we show that the proposed method consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art in multi-step forecasting benchmarks (achieving at least a $10\%$ performance improvement) on several real-world datasets, while enjoying increased computational efficiency.
Human mobility prediction is a fundamental task essential for various applications, including urban planning, transportation services, and location recommendation. Existing approaches often ignore activity information crucial for reasoning human preferences and routines, or adopt a simplified representation of the dependencies between time, activities and locations. To address these issues, we present Hierarchical Graph Attention Recurrent Network (HGARN) for human mobility prediction. Specifically, we construct a hierarchical graph based on all users' history mobility records and employ a Hierarchical Graph Attention Module to capture complex time-activity-location dependencies. This way, HGARN can learn representations with rich contextual semantics to model user preferences at the global level. We also propose a model-agnostic history-enhanced confidence (MaHec) label to focus our model on each user's individual-level preferences. Finally, we introduce a Recurrent Encoder-Decoder Module, which employs recurrent structures to jointly predict users' next activities (as an auxiliary task) and locations. For model evaluation, we test the performances of our Hgarn against existing SOTAs in recurring and explorative settings. The recurring setting focuses more on assessing models' capabilities to capture users' individual-level preferences. In contrast, the results in the explorative setting tend to reflect the power of different models to learn users' global-level preferences. Overall, our model outperforms other baselines significantly in the main, recurring, and explorative settings based on two real-world human mobility data benchmarks. Source codes of HGARN are available at https://github.com/YihongT/HGARN.
Real-world time-series datasets often violate the assumptions of standard supervised learning for forecasting -- their distributions evolve over time, rendering the conventional training and model selection procedures suboptimal. In this paper, we propose a novel method, Self-Adaptive Forecasting (SAF), to modify the training of time-series forecasting models to improve their performance on forecasting tasks with such non-stationary time-series data. SAF integrates a self-adaptation stage prior to forecasting based on `backcasting', i.e. predicting masked inputs backward in time. This is a form of test-time training that creates a self-supervised learning problem on test samples before performing the prediction task. In this way, our method enables efficient adaptation of encoded representations to evolving distributions, leading to superior generalization. SAF can be integrated with any canonical encoder-decoder based time-series architecture such as recurrent neural networks or attention-based architectures. On synthetic and real-world datasets in domains where time-series data are known to be notoriously non-stationary, such as healthcare and finance, we demonstrate a significant benefit of SAF in improving forecasting accuracy.
Purpose: Arterial spin labeling (ASL) perfusion imaging indicates direct and absolute measurement of cerebral blood flow (CBF). Arterial transit time (ATT) is a related physiological parameter reflecting the duration for the labeled spins to reach the brain region of interest. Multiple post-labeling delay (PLDs) can provide robust measures of both CBF and ATT, allowing for optimization of regional CBF modeling based on ATT. The prolonged acquisition time can potentially reduce the quality and accuracy of the CBF and ATT estimation. We proposed a novel network to significantly reduce the number of PLDs with higher signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Method: CBF and ATT estimations were performed for one PLD and two PLDs sepa-rately. Each model was trained independently to learn the nonlinear transformation from perfusion weighted image (PWI) to CBF and ATT images. Results: Both one-PLD and two-PLD models outperformed the conventional method visually on CBF and two-PLD model showed more accurate structure on ATT estima-tion. The proposed method significantly reduces the number of PLDs from 6 to 2 on ATT and even to single PLD on CBF without sacrificing the SNR. Conclusion: It is feasible to generate CBF and ATT maps with reduced PLDs using deep learning with high quality.
Mathematical modeling of infectious disease at scale is important, but challenging. Some of these difficulties can be alleviated by an approach that takes diagrams seriously as mathematical formalisms in their own right. Stock & flow diagrams are widely used as broadly accessible building blocks for infectious disease modeling. In this chapter, rather than focusing on the underlying mathematics, we informally use communicable disease examples created by the implemented software of StockFlow.jl to explain the basics, characteristics, and benefits of the categorical framework. We first characterize categorical stock & flow diagrams, and note the clear separation between the syntax of stock & flow diagrams and their semantics, demonstrating three examples of semantics already implemented in the software: ODEs, causal loop diagrams, and system structure diagrams. We then establish composition and stratification frameworks and examples for stock & flow diagrams. Applying category theory, these frameworks can build large diagrams from smaller ones in a modular fashion. Finally, we introduce the open-source ModelCollab software for diagram-centric real-time collaborative modeling. Using the graphical user interface, this web-based software allows the user to undertake the types of categorically-rooted operations discussed above, but without any knowledge of their categorical foundations.
In this study, learning modalities offered by public schools across the United States were investigated to track changes in the proportion of schools offering fully in-person, hybrid and fully remote learning over time. Learning modalities from 14,688 unique school districts from September 2020 to June 2021 were reported by Burbio, MCH Strategic Data, the American Enterprise Institute's Return to Learn Tracker and individual state dashboards. A model was needed to combine and deconflict these data to provide a more complete description of modalities nationwide. A hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to infer the most likely learning modality for each district on a weekly basis. This method yielded higher spatiotemporal coverage than any individual data source and higher agreement with three of the four data sources than any other single source. The model output revealed that the percentage of districts offering fully in-person learning rose from 40.3% in September 2020 to 54.7% in June of 2021 with increases across 45 states and in both urban and rural districts. This type of probabilistic model can serve as a tool for fusion of incomplete and contradictory data sources in support of public health surveillance and research efforts.
We establish a simple connection between robust and differentially-private algorithms: private mechanisms which perform well with very high probability are automatically robust in the sense that they retain accuracy even if a constant fraction of the samples they receive are adversarially corrupted. Since optimal mechanisms typically achieve these high success probabilities, our results imply that optimal private mechanisms for many basic statistics problems are robust. We investigate the consequences of this observation for both algorithms and computational complexity across different statistical problems. Assuming the Brennan-Bresler secret-leakage planted clique conjecture, we demonstrate a fundamental tradeoff between computational efficiency, privacy leakage, and success probability for sparse mean estimation. Private algorithms which match this tradeoff are not yet known -- we achieve that (up to polylogarithmic factors) in a polynomially-large range of parameters via the Sum-of-Squares method. To establish an information-computation gap for private sparse mean estimation, we also design new (exponential-time) mechanisms using fewer samples than efficient algorithms must use. Finally, we give evidence for privacy-induced information-computation gaps for several other statistics and learning problems, including PAC learning parity functions and estimation of the mean of a multivariate Gaussian.
Self-supervised learning (SSL) models reshaped our approach to speech, language and vision. However their huge size and the opaque relations between their layers and tasks result in slow inference and network overthinking, where predictions made from the last layer of large models is worse than those made from intermediate layers. Early exit (EE) strategies can solve both issues by dynamically reducing computations at inference time for certain samples. Although popular for classification tasks in vision and language, EE has seen less use for sequence-to-sequence speech recognition (ASR) tasks where outputs from early layers are often degenerate. This challenge is further compounded when speech SSL models are applied on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. This paper first shows that SSL models do overthinking in ASR. We then motivate further research in EE by computing an optimal bound for performance versus speed trade-offs. To approach this bound we propose two new strategies for ASR: (1) we adapt the recently proposed patience strategy to ASR; and (2) we design a new EE strategy specific to ASR that performs better than all strategies previously introduced.
A key contributor to recent progress in 3D detection from single images is monocular depth estimation. Existing methods focus on how to leverage depth explicitly, by generating pseudo-pointclouds or providing attention cues for image features. More recent works leverage depth prediction as a pretraining task and fine-tune the depth representation while training it for 3D detection. However, the adaptation is insufficient and is limited in scale by manual labels. In this work, we propose to further align depth representation with the target domain in unsupervised fashions. Our methods leverage commonly available LiDAR or RGB videos during training time to fine-tune the depth representation, which leads to improved 3D detectors. Especially when using RGB videos, we show that our two-stage training by first generating pseudo-depth labels is critical because of the inconsistency in loss distribution between the two tasks. With either type of reference data, our multi-task learning approach improves over the state of the art on both KITTI and NuScenes, while matching the test-time complexity of its single task sub-network.