Content feed, a type of product that recommends a sequence of items for users to browse and engage with, has gained tremendous popularity among social media platforms. In this paper, we propose to study the diversity problem in such a scenario from an item sequence perspective using time series analysis techniques. We derive a method called sliding spectrum decomposition (SSD) that captures users' perception of diversity in browsing a long item sequence. We also share our experiences in designing and implementing a suitable item embedding method for accurate similarity measurement under long tail effect. Combined together, they are now fully implemented and deployed in Xiaohongshu App's production recommender system that serves the main Explore Feed product for tens of millions of users every day. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the method through theoretical analysis, offline experiments and online A/B tests.
Heterogeneity and irregularity of multi-source data sets present a significant challenge to time-series analysis. In the literature, the fusion of multi-source time-series has been achieved either by using ensemble learning models which ignore temporal patterns and correlation within features or by defining a fixed-size window to select specific parts of the data sets. On the other hand, many studies have shown major improvement to handle the irregularity of time-series, yet none of these studies has been applied to multi-source data. In this work, we design a novel architecture, PIETS, to model heterogeneous time-series. PIETS has the following characteristics: (1) irregularity encoders for multi-source samples that can leverage all available information and accelerate the convergence of the model; (2) parallelised neural networks to enable flexibility and avoid information overwhelming; and (3) attention mechanism that highlights different information and gives high importance to the most related data. Through extensive experiments on real-world data sets related to COVID-19, we show that the proposed architecture is able to effectively model heterogeneous temporal data and outperforms other state-of-the-art approaches in the prediction task.
Neural networks with recurrent asymmetric couplings are important to understand how episodic memories are encoded in the brain. Here, we integrate the experimental observation of wide synaptic integration window into our model of sequence retrieval in the continuous time dynamics. The model with non-normal neuron-interactions is theoretically studied by deriving a random matrix theory of the Jacobian matrix in neural dynamics. The spectra bears several distinct features, such as breaking rotational symmetry about the origin, and the emergence of nested voids within the spectrum boundary. The spectral density is thus highly non-uniformly distributed in the complex plane. The random matrix theory also predicts a transition to chaos. In particular, the edge of chaos provides computational benefits for the sequential retrieval of memories. Our work provides a systematic study of time-lagged correlations with arbitrary time delays, and thus can inspire future studies of a broad class of memory models, and even big data analysis of biological time series.
Asynchronous time series are often observed in several applications such as health care, astronomy, and climate science, and pose a significant challenge to the standard deep learning architectures. Interpolation of asynchronous time series is vital for many real-world tasks like root cause analysis, and medical diagnosis. In this paper, we propose a novel encoder-decoder architecture called Tripletformer, which works on the set of observations where each set element is a triple of time, channel, and value, for the probabilistic interpolation of the asynchronous time series. Both the encoder and the decoder of the Tripletformer are modeled using attention layers and fully connected layers and are invariant to the order in which set elements are presented. The proposed Tripletformer is compared with a range of baselines over multiple real-world and synthetic asynchronous time series datasets, and the experimental results attest that it produces more accurate and certain interpolations. We observe an improvement in negative loglikelihood error up to 33% over real and 800% over synthetic asynchronous time series datasets compared to the state-of-the-art model using the Tripletformer.
One major sub-domain in the subject of polling public opinion with social media data is electoral prediction. Electoral prediction utilizing social media data potentially would significantly affect campaign strategies, complementing traditional polling methods and providing cheaper polling in real-time. First, this paper explores past successful methods from research for analysis and prediction of the 2020 US Presidential Election using Twitter data. Then, this research proposes a new method for electoral prediction which combines sentiment, from NLP on the text of tweets, and structural data with aggregate polling, a time series analysis, and a special focus on Twitter users critical to the election. Though this method performed worse than its baseline of polling predictions, it is inconclusive whether this is an accurate method for predicting elections due to scarcity of data. More research and more data are needed to accurately measure this method's overall effectiveness.
The modernization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) requires the large scale and frequent monitoring of agricultural land. Towards this direction, the free and open satellite data (i.e., Sentinel missions) have been extensively used as the sources for the required high spatial and temporal resolution Earth observations. Nevertheless, monitoring the CAP at large scales constitutes a big data problem and puts a strain on CAP paying agencies that need to adapt fast in terms of infrastructure and know-how. Hence, there is a need for efficient and easy-to-use tools for the acquisition, storage, processing and exploitation of big satellite data. In this work, we present the Agriculture monitoring Data Cube (ADC), which is an automated, modular, end-to-end framework for discovering, pre-processing and indexing optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images into a multidimensional cube. We also offer a set of powerful tools on top of the ADC, including i) the generation of analysis-ready feature spaces of big satellite data to feed downstream machine learning tasks and ii) the support of Satellite Image Time-Series (SITS) analysis via services pertinent to the monitoring of the CAP (e.g., detecting trends and events, monitoring the growth status etc.). The knowledge extracted from the SITS analyses and the machine learning tasks returns to the data cube, building scalable country-specific knowledge bases that can efficiently answer complex and multi-faceted geospatial queries.
Despite the success of deep neural networks (DNNs) for real-world applications over time-series data such as mobile health, little is known about how to train robust DNNs for time-series domain due to its unique characteristics compared to images and text data. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithmic framework referred as RObust Training for Time-Series (RO-TS) to create robust DNNs for time-series classification tasks. Specifically, we formulate a min-max optimization problem over the model parameters by explicitly reasoning about the robustness criteria in terms of additive perturbations to time-series inputs measured by the global alignment kernel (GAK) based distance. We also show the generality and advantages of our formulation using the summation structure over time-series alignments by relating both GAK and dynamic time warping (DTW). This problem is an instance of a family of compositional min-max optimization problems, which are challenging and open with unclear theoretical guarantee. We propose a principled stochastic compositional alternating gradient descent ascent (SCAGDA) algorithm for this family of optimization problems. Unlike traditional methods for time-series that require approximate computation of distance measures, SCAGDA approximates the GAK based distance on-the-fly using a moving average approach. We theoretically analyze the convergence rate of SCAGDA and provide strong theoretical support for the estimation of GAK based distance. Our experiments on real-world benchmarks demonstrate that RO-TS creates more robust DNNs when compared to adversarial training using prior methods that rely on data augmentation or new definitions of loss functions. We also demonstrate the importance of GAK for time-series data over the Euclidean distance. The source code of RO-TS algorithms is available at https://github.com/tahabelkhouja/Robust-Training-for-Time-Series
In this paper, the task of channel sounding using software defined radios (SDRs) is considered. In contrast to classical channel sounding equipment, SDRs are general purpose devices and require additional steps to be implemented when employed for this task. On top of this, SDRs may exhibit quirks causing signal artefacts that obstruct the effective collection of channel estimation data. Based on these considerations, in this work, a practical algorithm is devised to compensate for the drawbacks of using SDRs for channel sounding encountered in a concrete setup. The proposed approach utilises concepts from time series and Fourier analysis and comprises a signal restoration routine for mitigating artefacts within the recorded signals and an encompassing channel sounding process. The efficacy of the algorithm is evaluated on real measurements generated within the given setup. The empirical results show that the proposed method is able to counteract the shortcomings of the equipment and deliver reasonable channel estimates.
We propose a novel multilinear dynamical system (MLDS) in a transform domain, named $\mathcal{L}$-MLDS, to model tensor time series. With transformations applied to a tensor data, the latent multidimensional correlations among the frontal slices are built, and thus resulting in the computational independence in the transform domain. This allows the exact separability of the multi-dimensional problem into multiple smaller LDS problems. To estimate the system parameters, we utilize the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to determine the parameters of each LDS. Further, $\mathcal{L}$-MLDSs significantly reduce the model parameters and allows parallel processing. Our general $\mathcal{L}$-MLDS model is implemented based on different transforms: discrete Fourier transform, discrete cosine transform and discrete wavelet transform. Due to the nonlinearity of these transformations, $\mathcal{L}$-MLDS is able to capture the nonlinear correlations within the data unlike the MLDS \cite{rogers2013multilinear} which assumes multi-way linear correlations. Using four real datasets, the proposed $\mathcal{L}$-MLDS is shown to achieve much higher prediction accuracy than the state-of-the-art MLDS and LDS with an equal number of parameters under different noise models. In particular, the relative errors are reduced by $50\% \sim 99\%$. Simultaneously, $\mathcal{L}$-MLDS achieves an exponential improvement in the model's training time than MLDS.