FusionSF: Fuse Heterogeneous Modalities in a Vector Quantized Framework for Robust Solar Power Forecasting

Accurate solar power forecasting is crucial to integrate photovoltaic plants into the electric grid, schedule and secure the power grid safety. This problem becomes more demanding for those newly installed solar plants which lack sufficient data. Current research predominantly relies on historical solar power data or numerical weather prediction in a single-modality format, ignoring the complementary information provided in different modalities. In this paper, we propose a multi-modality fusion framework to integrate historical power data, numerical weather prediction, and satellite images, significantly improving forecast performance. We introduce a vector quantized framework that aligns modalities with varying information densities, striking a balance between integrating sufficient information and averting model overfitting. Our framework demonstrates strong zero-shot forecasting capability, which is especially useful for those newly installed plants. Moreover, we collect and release a multi-modal solar power (MMSP) dataset from real-world plants to further promote the research of multi-modal solar forecasting algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that our model not only operates with robustness but also boosts accuracy in both zero-shot forecasting and scenarios rich with training data, surpassing leading models. We have incorporated it into our eForecaster platform and deployed it for more than 300 solar plants with a capacity of over 15GW.

Graph Mamba: Towards Learning on Graphs with State Space Models

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown promising potential in graph representation learning. The majority of GNNs define a local message-passing mechanism, propagating information over the graph by stacking multiple layers. These methods, however, are known to suffer from two major limitations: over-squashing and poor capturing of long-range dependencies. Recently, Graph Transformers (GTs) emerged as a powerful alternative to Message-Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs). GTs, however, have quadratic computational cost, lack inductive biases on graph structures, and rely on complex Positional/Structural Encodings (SE/PE). In this paper, we show that while Transformers, complex message-passing, and SE/PE are sufficient for good performance in practice, neither is necessary. Motivated by the recent success of State Space Models (SSMs), such as Mamba, we present Graph Mamba Networks (GMNs), a general framework for a new class of GNNs based on selective SSMs. We discuss and categorize the new challenges when adopting SSMs to graph-structured data, and present four required and one optional steps to design GMNs, where we choose (1) Neighborhood Tokenization, (2) Token Ordering, (3) Architecture of Bidirectional Selective SSM Encoder, (4) Local Encoding, and dispensable (5) PE and SE. We further provide theoretical justification for the power of GMNs. Experiments demonstrate that despite much less computational cost, GMNs attain an outstanding performance in long-range, small-scale, large-scale, and heterophilic benchmark datasets.

Strategizing against No-Regret Learners in First-Price Auctions

We study repeated first-price auctions and general repeated Bayesian games between two players, where one player, the learner, employs a no-regret learning algorithm, and the other player, the optimizer, knowing the learner's algorithm, strategizes to maximize its own utility. For a commonly used class of no-regret learning algorithms called mean-based algorithms, we show that (i) in standard (i.e., full-information) first-price auctions, the optimizer cannot get more than the Stackelberg utility -- a standard benchmark in the literature, but (ii) in Bayesian first-price auctions, there are instances where the optimizer can achieve much higher than the Stackelberg utility. On the other hand, Mansour et al. (2022) showed that a more sophisticated class of algorithms called no-polytope-swap-regret algorithms are sufficient to cap the optimizer's utility at the Stackelberg utility in any repeated Bayesian game (including Bayesian first-price auctions), and they pose the open question whether no-polytope-swap-regret algorithms are necessary to cap the optimizer's utility. For general Bayesian games, under a reasonable and necessary condition, we prove that no-polytope-swap-regret algorithms are indeed necessary to cap the optimizer's utility and thus answer their open question. For Bayesian first-price auctions, we give a simple improvement of the standard algorithm for minimizing the polytope swap regret by exploiting the structure of Bayesian first-price auctions.

Conditional Neural Expert Processes for Learning from Demonstration

Learning from Demonstration (LfD) is a widely used technique for skill acquisition in robotics. However, demonstrations of the same skill may exhibit significant variances, or learning systems may attempt to acquire different means of the same skill simultaneously, making it challenging to encode these motions into movement primitives. To address these challenges, we propose an LfD framework, namely the Conditional Neural Expert Processes (CNEP), that learns to assign demonstrations from different modes to distinct expert networks utilizing the inherent information within the latent space to match experts with the encoded representations. CNEP does not require supervision on which mode the trajectories belong to. Provided experiments on artificially generated datasets demonstrate the efficacy of CNEP. Furthermore, we compare the performance of CNEP with another LfD framework, namely Conditional Neural Movement Primitives (CNMP), on a range of tasks, including experiments on a real robot. The results reveal enhanced modeling performance for movement primitives, leading to the synthesis of trajectories that more accurately reflect those demonstrated by experts, particularly when the model inputs include intersection points from various trajectories. Additionally, CNEP offers improved interpretability and faster convergence by promoting expert specialization. Furthermore, we show that the CNEP model accomplishes obstacle avoidance tasks with a real manipulator when provided with novel start and destination points, in contrast to the CNMP model, which leads to collisions with the obstacle.

Leveraging Self-Supervised Instance Contrastive Learning for Radar Object Detection

In recent years, driven by the need for safer and more autonomous transport systems, the automotive industry has shifted toward integrating a growing number of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). Among the array of sensors employed for object recognition tasks, radar sensors have emerged as a formidable contender due to their abilities in adverse weather conditions or low-light scenarios and their robustness in maintaining consistent performance across diverse environments. However, the small size of radar datasets and the complexity of the labelling of those data limit the performance of radar object detectors. Driven by the promising results of self-supervised learning in computer vision, this paper presents RiCL, an instance contrastive learning framework to pre-train radar object detectors. We propose to exploit the detection from the radar and the temporal information to pre-train the radar object detection model in a self-supervised way using contrastive learning. We aim to pre-train an object detector's backbone, head and neck to learn with fewer data. Experiments on the CARRADA and the RADDet datasets show the effectiveness of our approach in learning generic representations of objects in range-Doppler maps. Notably, our pre-training strategy allows us to use only 20% of the labelled data to reach a similar mAP@0.5 than a supervised approach using the whole training set.

Transformer Mechanisms Mimic Frontostriatal Gating Operations When Trained on Human Working Memory Tasks

Models based on the Transformer neural network architecture have seen success on a wide variety of tasks that appear to require complex "cognitive branching" -- or the ability to maintain pursuit of one goal while accomplishing others. In cognitive neuroscience, success on such tasks is thought to rely on sophisticated frontostriatal mechanisms for selective \textit{gating}, which enable role-addressable updating -- and later readout -- of information to and from distinct "addresses" of memory, in the form of clusters of neurons. However, Transformer models have no such mechanisms intentionally built-in. It is thus an open question how Transformers solve such tasks, and whether the mechanisms that emerge to help them to do so bear any resemblance to the gating mechanisms in the human brain. In this work, we analyze the mechanisms that emerge within a vanilla attention-only Transformer trained on a simple sequence modeling task inspired by a task explicitly designed to study working memory gating in computational cognitive neuroscience. We find that, as a result of training, the self-attention mechanism within the Transformer specializes in a way that mirrors the input and output gating mechanisms which were explicitly incorporated into earlier, more biologically-inspired architectures. These results suggest opportunities for future research on computational similarities between modern AI architectures and models of the human brain.

FLASH: Federated Learning Across Simultaneous Heterogeneities

The key premise of federated learning (FL) is to train ML models across a diverse set of data-owners (clients), without exchanging local data. An overarching challenge to this date is client heterogeneity, which may arise not only from variations in data distribution, but also in data quality, as well as compute/communication latency. An integrated view of these diverse and concurrent sources of heterogeneity is critical; for instance, low-latency clients may have poor data quality, and vice versa. In this work, we propose FLASH(Federated Learning Across Simultaneous Heterogeneities), a lightweight and flexible client selection algorithm that outperforms state-of-the-art FL frameworks under extensive sources of heterogeneity, by trading-off the statistical information associated with the client's data quality, data distribution, and latency. FLASH is the first method, to our knowledge, for handling all these heterogeneities in a unified manner. To do so, FLASH models the learning dynamics through contextual multi-armed bandits (CMAB) and dynamically selects the most promising clients. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that FLASH achieves substantial and consistent improvements over state-of-the-art baselines -- as much as 10% in absolute accuracy -- thanks to its unified approach. Importantly, FLASH also outperforms federated aggregation methods that are designed to handle highly heterogeneous settings and even enjoys a performance boost when integrated with them.

Debating with More Persuasive LLMs Leads to More Truthful Answers

Common methods for aligning large language models (LLMs) with desired behaviour heavily rely on human-labelled data. However, as models grow increasingly sophisticated, they will surpass human expertise, and the role of human evaluation will evolve into non-experts overseeing experts. In anticipation of this, we ask: can weaker models assess the correctness of stronger models? We investigate this question in an analogous setting, where stronger models (experts) possess the necessary information to answer questions and weaker models (non-experts) lack this information. The method we evaluate is \textit{debate}, where two LLM experts each argue for a different answer, and a non-expert selects the answer. We find that debate consistently helps both non-expert models and humans answer questions, achieving 76\% and 88\% accuracy respectively (naive baselines obtain 48\% and 60\%). Furthermore, optimising expert debaters for persuasiveness in an unsupervised manner improves non-expert ability to identify the truth in debates. Our results provide encouraging empirical evidence for the viability of aligning models with debate in the absence of ground truth.

Multi-Technique Sequential Information Consistency For Dynamic Visual Place Recognition In Changing Environments

Visual place recognition (VPR) is an essential component of robot navigation and localization systems that allows them to identify a place using only image data. VPR is challenging due to the significant changes in a place's appearance driven by different daily illumination, seasonal weather variations and diverse viewpoints. Currently, no single VPR technique excels in every environmental condition, each exhibiting unique benefits and shortcomings, and therefore combining multiple techniques can achieve more reliable VPR performance. Present multi-method approaches either rely on online ground-truth information, which is often not available, or on brute-force technique combination, potentially lowering performance with high variance technique sets. Addressing these shortcomings, we propose a VPR system dubbed Multi-Sequential Information Consistency (MuSIC) which leverages sequential information to select the most cohesive technique on an online per-frame basis. For each technique in a set, MuSIC computes their respective sequential consistencies by analysing the frame-to-frame continuity of their top match candidates, which are then directly compared to select the optimal technique for the current query image. The use of sequential information to select between VPR methods results in an overall VPR performance increase across different benchmark datasets, while avoiding the need for extra ground-truth of the runtime environment.

Weisfeiler-Leman at the margin: When more expressivity matters

The Weisfeiler-Leman algorithm ($1$-WL) is a well-studied heuristic for the graph isomorphism problem. Recently, the algorithm has played a prominent role in understanding the expressive power of message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) and being effective as a graph kernel. Despite its success, $1$-WL faces challenges in distinguishing non-isomorphic graphs, leading to the development of more expressive MPNN and kernel architectures. However, the relationship between enhanced expressivity and improved generalization performance remains unclear. Here, we show that an architecture's expressivity offers limited insights into its generalization performance when viewed through graph isomorphism. Moreover, we focus on augmenting $1$-WL and MPNNs with subgraph information and employ classical margin theory to investigate the conditions under which an architecture's increased expressivity aligns with improved generalization performance. In addition, we show that gradient flow pushes the MPNN's weights toward the maximum margin solution. Further, we introduce variations of expressive $1$-WL-based kernel and MPNN architectures with provable generalization properties. Our empirical study confirms the validity of our theoretical findings.