Modelling crypto markets by multi-agent reinforcement learning

Building on a previous foundation work (Lussange et al. 2020), this study introduces a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) model simulating crypto markets, which is calibrated to the Binance's daily closing prices of $153$ cryptocurrencies that were continuously traded between 2018 and 2022. Unlike previous agent-based models (ABM) or multi-agent systems (MAS) which relied on zero-intelligence agents or single autonomous agent methodologies, our approach relies on endowing agents with reinforcement learning (RL) techniques in order to model crypto markets. This integration is designed to emulate, with a bottom-up approach to complexity inference, both individual and collective agents, ensuring robustness in the recent volatile conditions of such markets and during the COVID-19 era. A key feature of our model also lies in the fact that its autonomous agents perform asset price valuation based on two sources of information: the market prices themselves, and the approximation of the crypto assets fundamental values beyond what those market prices are. Our MAS calibration against real market data allows for an accurate emulation of crypto markets microstructure and probing key market behaviors, in both the bearish and bullish regimes of that particular time period.

LinkNER: Linking Local Named Entity Recognition Models to Large Language Models using Uncertainty

Named Entity Recognition (NER) serves as a fundamental task in natural language understanding, bearing direct implications for web content analysis, search engines, and information retrieval systems. Fine-tuned NER models exhibit satisfactory performance on standard NER benchmarks. However, due to limited fine-tuning data and lack of knowledge, it performs poorly on unseen entity recognition. As a result, the usability and reliability of NER models in web-related applications are compromised. Instead, Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT-4 possess extensive external knowledge, but research indicates that they lack specialty for NER tasks. Furthermore, non-public and large-scale weights make tuning LLMs difficult. To address these challenges, we propose a framework that combines small fine-tuned models with LLMs (LinkNER) and an uncertainty-based linking strategy called RDC that enables fine-tuned models to complement black-box LLMs, achieving better performance. We experiment with both standard NER test sets and noisy social media datasets. LinkNER enhances NER task performance, notably surpassing SOTA models in robustness tests. We also quantitatively analyze the influence of key components like uncertainty estimation methods, LLMs, and in-context learning on diverse NER tasks, offering specific web-related recommendations.

Can We Verify Step by Step for Incorrect Answer Detection?

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting has marked a significant advancement in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Previous studies have developed various extensions of CoT, which focus primarily on enhancing end-task performance. In addition, there has been research on assessing the quality of reasoning chains in CoT. This raises an intriguing question: Is it possible to predict the accuracy of LLM outputs by scrutinizing the reasoning chains they generate? To answer this research question, we introduce a benchmark, R2PE, designed specifically to explore the relationship between reasoning chains and performance in various reasoning tasks spanning five different domains. This benchmark aims to measure the falsehood of the final output of LLMs based on the reasoning steps. To make full use of information in multiple reasoning chains, we propose the process discernibility score (PDS) framework that beats the answer-checking baseline by a large margin. Concretely, this resulted in an average of 5.1% increase in the F1 score across all 45 subsets within R2PE. We further demonstrate our PDS's efficacy in advancing open-domain QA accuracy. Data and code are available at https://github.com/XinXU-USTC/R2PE.

Optimizing Skin Lesion Classification via Multimodal Data and Auxiliary Task Integration

The rising global prevalence of skin conditions, some of which can escalate to life-threatening stages if not timely diagnosed and treated, presents a significant healthcare challenge. This issue is particularly acute in remote areas where limited access to healthcare often results in delayed treatment, allowing skin diseases to advance to more critical stages. One of the primary challenges in diagnosing skin diseases is their low inter-class variations, as many exhibit similar visual characteristics, making accurate classification challenging. This research introduces a novel multimodal method for classifying skin lesions, integrating smartphone-captured images with essential clinical and demographic information. This approach mimics the diagnostic process employed by medical professionals. A distinctive aspect of this method is the integration of an auxiliary task focused on super-resolution image prediction. This component plays a crucial role in refining visual details and enhancing feature extraction, leading to improved differentiation between classes and, consequently, elevating the overall effectiveness of the model. The experimental evaluations have been conducted using the PAD-UFES20 dataset, applying various deep-learning architectures. The results of these experiments not only demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method but also its potential applicability under-resourced healthcare environments.

Through the Lens of Split Vote: Exploring Disagreement, Difficulty and Calibration in Legal Case Outcome Classification

In legal decisions, split votes (SV) occur when judges cannot reach a unanimous decision, posing a difficulty for lawyers who must navigate diverse legal arguments and opinions. In high-stakes domains, understanding the alignment of perceived difficulty between humans and AI systems is crucial to build trust. However, existing NLP calibration methods focus on a classifier's awareness of predictive performance, measured against the human majority class, overlooking inherent human label variation (HLV). This paper explores split votes as naturally observable human disagreement and value pluralism. We collect judges' vote distributions from the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), and present SV-ECHR, a case outcome classification (COC) dataset with SV information. We build a taxonomy of disagreement with SV-specific subcategories. We further assess the alignment of perceived difficulty between models and humans, as well as confidence- and human-calibration of COC models. We observe limited alignment with the judge vote distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic exploration of calibration to human judgements in legal NLP. Our study underscores the necessity for further research on measuring and enhancing model calibration considering HLV in legal decision tasks.

Magic-Me: Identity-Specific Video Customized Diffusion

Creating content for a specific identity (ID) has shown significant interest in the field of generative models. In the field of text-to-image generation (T2I), subject-driven content generation has achieved great progress with the ID in the images controllable. However, extending it to video generation is not well explored. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective subject identity controllable video generation framework, termed Video Custom Diffusion (VCD). With a specified subject ID defined by a few images, VCD reinforces the identity information extraction and injects frame-wise correlation at the initialization stage for stable video outputs with identity preserved to a large extent. To achieve this, we propose three novel components that are essential for high-quality ID preservation: 1) an ID module trained with the cropped identity by prompt-to-segmentation to disentangle the ID information and the background noise for more accurate ID token learning; 2) a text-to-video (T2V) VCD module with 3D Gaussian Noise Prior for better inter-frame consistency and 3) video-to-video (V2V) Face VCD and Tiled VCD modules to deblur the face and upscale the video for higher resolution. Despite its simplicity, we conducted extensive experiments to verify that VCD is able to generate stable and high-quality videos with better ID over the selected strong baselines. Besides, due to the transferability of the ID module, VCD is also working well with finetuned text-to-image models available publically, further improving its usability. The codes are available at https://github.com/Zhen-Dong/Magic-Me.

Analyzing Prompt Influence on Automated Method Generation: An Empirical Study with Copilot

Generative AI is changing the way developers interact with software systems, providing services that can produce and deliver new content, crafted to satisfy the actual needs of developers. For instance, developers can ask for new code directly from within their IDEs by writing natural language prompts, and integrated services based on generative AI, such as Copilot, immediately respond to prompts by providing ready-to-use code snippets. Formulating the prompt appropriately, and incorporating the useful information while avoiding any information overload, can be an important factor in obtaining the right piece of code. The task of designing good prompts is known as prompt engineering. In this paper, we systematically investigate the influence of eight prompt features on the style and the content of prompts, on the level of correctness, complexity, size, and similarity to the developers' code of the generated code. We specifically consider the task of using Copilot with 124,800 prompts obtained by systematically combining the eight considered prompt features to generate the implementation of 200 Java methods. Results show how some prompt features, such as the presence of examples and the summary of the purpose of the method, can significantly influence the quality of the result.

Distributed Optimization with Consensus Constraint for Multi-Robot Semantic Octree Mapping

This work develops a distributed optimization algorithm for multi-robot 3-D semantic mapping using streaming range and visual observations and single-hop communication. Our approach relies on gradient-based optimization of the observation log-likelihood of each robot subject to a map consensus constraint to build a common multi-class map of the environment. This formulation leads to closed-form updates which resemble Bayes rule with one-hop prior averaging. To reduce the amount of information exchanged among the robots, we utilize an octree data structure that compresses the multi-class map distribution using adaptive-resolution.

Bandit-Feedback Online Multiclass Classification: Variants and Tradeoffs

Consider the domain of multiclass classification within the adversarial online setting. What is the price of relying on bandit feedback as opposed to full information? To what extent can an adaptive adversary amplify the loss compared to an oblivious one? To what extent can a randomized learner reduce the loss compared to a deterministic one? We study these questions in the mistake bound model and provide nearly tight answers. We demonstrate that the optimal mistake bound under bandit feedback is at most $O(k)$ times higher than the optimal mistake bound in the full information case, where $k$ represents the number of labels. This bound is tight and provides an answer to an open question previously posed and studied by Daniely and Helbertal ['13] and by Long ['17, '20], who focused on deterministic learners. Moreover, we present nearly optimal bounds of $\tilde{\Theta}(k)$ on the gap between randomized and deterministic learners, as well as between adaptive and oblivious adversaries in the bandit feedback setting. This stands in contrast to the full information scenario, where adaptive and oblivious adversaries are equivalent, and the gap in mistake bounds between randomized and deterministic learners is a constant multiplicative factor of $2$. In addition, our results imply that in some cases the optimal randomized mistake bound is approximately the square-root of its deterministic parallel. Previous results show that this is essentially the smallest it can get.

Distributed Compression in the Era of Machine Learning: A Review of Recent Advances

Many applications from camera arrays to sensor networks require efficient compression and processing of correlated data, which in general is collected in a distributed fashion. While information-theoretic foundations of distributed compression are well investigated, the impact of theory in practice-oriented applications to this day has been somewhat limited. As the field of data compression is undergoing a transformation with the emergence of learning-based techniques, machine learning is becoming an important tool to reap the long-promised benefits of distributed compression. In this paper, we review the recent contributions in the broad area of learned distributed compression techniques for abstract sources and images. In particular, we discuss approaches that provide interpretable results operating close to information-theoretic bounds. We also highlight unresolved research challenges, aiming to inspire fresh interest and advancements in the field of learned distributed compression.