Electricity Demand Forecasting through Natural Language Processing with Long Short-Term Memory Networks

Electricity demand forecasting is a well established research field. Usually this task is performed considering historical loads, weather forecasts, calendar information and known major events. Recently attention has been given on the possible use of new sources of information from textual news in order to improve the performance of these predictions. This paper proposes a Long and Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network incorporating textual news features that successfully predicts the deterministic and probabilistic tasks of the UK national electricity demand. The study finds that public sentiment and word vector representations related to transport and geopolitics have time-continuity effects on electricity demand. The experimental results show that the LSTM with textual features improves by more than 3% compared to the pure LSTM benchmark and by close to 10% over the official benchmark. Furthermore, the proposed model effectively reduces forecasting uncertainty by narrowing the confidence interval and bringing the forecast distribution closer to the truth.

Simulation-aided Learning from Demonstration for Robotic LEGO Construction

Recent advancements in manufacturing have a growing demand for fast, automatic prototyping (i.e. assembly and disassembly) capabilities to meet users' needs. This paper studies automatic rapid LEGO prototyping, which is devoted to constructing target LEGO objects that satisfy individual customization needs and allow users to freely construct their novel designs. A construction plan is needed in order to automatically construct the user-specified LEGO design. However, a freely designed LEGO object might not have an existing construction plan, and generating such a LEGO construction plan requires a non-trivial effort since it requires accounting for numerous constraints (e.g. object shape, colors, stability, etc.). In addition, programming the prototyping skill for the robot requires the users to have expert programming skills, which makes the task beyond the reach of the general public. To address the challenges, this paper presents a simulation-aided learning from demonstration (SaLfD) framework for easily deploying LEGO prototyping capability to robots. In particular, the user demonstrates constructing the customized novel LEGO object. The robot extracts the task information by observing the human operation and generates the construction plan. A simulation is developed to verify the correctness of the learned construction plan and the resulting LEGO prototype. The proposed system is deployed to a FANUC LR-mate 200id/7L robot. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed SaLfD framework can effectively correct and learn the prototyping (i.e. assembly and disassembly) tasks from human demonstrations. And the learned prototyping tasks are realized by the FANUC robot.

Guided Cooperation in Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning via Model-based Rollout

Goal-conditioned hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) presents a promising approach for enabling effective exploration in complex long-horizon reinforcement learning (RL) tasks via temporal abstraction. Yet, most goal-conditioned HRL algorithms focused on the subgoal discovery, regardless of inter-level coupling. In essence, for hierarchical systems, the increased inter-level communication and coordination can induce more stable and robust policy improvement. Here, we present a goal-conditioned HRL framework with Guided Cooperation via Model-based Rollout (GCMR), which estimates forward dynamics to promote inter-level cooperation. The GCMR alleviates the state-transition error within off-policy correction through a model-based rollout, further improving the sample efficiency. Meanwhile, to avoid being disrupted by these corrected but possibly unseen or faraway goals, lower-level Q-function gradients are constrained using a gradient penalty with a model-inferred upper bound, leading to a more stable behavioral policy. Besides, we propose a one-step rollout-based planning to further facilitate inter-level cooperation, where the higher-level Q-function is used to guide the lower-level policy by estimating the value of future states so that global task information is transmitted downwards to avoid local pitfalls. Experimental results demonstrate that incorporating the proposed GCMR framework with ACLG, a disentangled variant of HIGL, yields more stable and robust policy improvement than baselines and substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) HRL algorithms in both hard-exploration problems and robotic control.

Changes-Aware Transformer: Learning Generalized Changes Representation

Difference features obtained by comparing the images of two periods play an indispensable role in the change detection (CD) task. However, a pair of bi-temporal images can exhibit diverse changes, which may cause various difference features. Identifying changed pixels with differ difference features to be the same category is thus a challenge for CD. Most nowadays' methods acquire distinctive difference features in implicit ways like enhancing image representation or supervision information. Nevertheless, informative image features only guarantee object semantics are modeled and can not guarantee that changed pixels have similar semantics in the difference feature space and are distinct from those unchanged ones. In this work, the generalized representation of various changes is learned straightforwardly in the difference feature space, and a novel Changes-Aware Transformer (CAT) for refining difference features is proposed. This generalized representation can perceive which pixels are changed and which are unchanged and further guide the update of pixels' difference features. CAT effectively accomplishes this refinement process through the stacked cosine cross-attention layer and self-attention layer. After refinement, the changed pixels in the difference feature space are closer to each other, which facilitates change detection. In addition, CAT is compatible with various backbone networks and existing CD methods. Experiments on remote sensing CD data set and street scene CD data set show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance and has excellent generalization.

When Automated Assessment Meets Automated Content Generation: Examining Text Quality in the Era of GPTs

The use of machine learning (ML) models to assess and score textual data has become increasingly pervasive in an array of contexts including natural language processing, information retrieval, search and recommendation, and credibility assessment of online content. A significant disruption at the intersection of ML and text are text-generating large-language models such as generative pre-trained transformers (GPTs). We empirically assess the differences in how ML-based scoring models trained on human content assess the quality of content generated by humans versus GPTs. To do so, we propose an analysis framework that encompasses essay scoring ML-models, human and ML-generated essays, and a statistical model that parsimoniously considers the impact of type of respondent, prompt genre, and the ML model used for assessment model. A rich testbed is utilized that encompasses 18,460 human-generated and GPT-based essays. Results of our benchmark analysis reveal that transformer pretrained language models (PLMs) more accurately score human essay quality as compared to CNN/RNN and feature-based ML methods. Interestingly, we find that the transformer PLMs tend to score GPT-generated text 10-15\% higher on average, relative to human-authored documents. Conversely, traditional deep learning and feature-based ML models score human text considerably higher. Further analysis reveals that although the transformer PLMs are exclusively fine-tuned on human text, they more prominently attend to certain tokens appearing only in GPT-generated text, possibly due to familiarity/overlap in pre-training. Our framework and results have implications for text classification settings where automated scoring of text is likely to be disrupted by generative AI.

A Weighted Prognostic Covariate Adjustment Method for Efficient and Powerful Treatment Effect Inferences in Randomized Controlled Trials

A crucial task for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to specify a statistical method that can yield an efficient estimator and powerful test for the treatment effect. A novel and effective strategy to obtain efficient and powerful treatment effect inferences is to incorporate predictions from generative artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms into covariate adjustment for the regression analysis of a RCT. Training a generative AI algorithm on historical control data enables one to construct a digital twin generator (DTG) for RCT participants, which utilizes a participant's baseline covariates to generate a probability distribution for their potential control outcome. Summaries of the probability distribution from the DTG are highly predictive of the trial outcome, and adjusting for these features via regression can thus improve the quality of treatment effect inferences, while satisfying regulatory guidelines on statistical analyses, for a RCT. However, a critical assumption in this strategy is homoskedasticity, or constant variance of the outcome conditional on the covariates. In the case of heteroskedasticity, existing covariate adjustment methods yield inefficient estimators and underpowered tests. We propose to address heteroskedasticity via a weighted prognostic covariate adjustment methodology (Weighted PROCOVA) that adjusts for both the mean and variance of the regression model using information obtained from the DTG. We prove that our method yields unbiased treatment effect estimators, and demonstrate via comprehensive simulation studies and case studies from Alzheimer's disease that it can reduce the variance of the treatment effect estimator, maintain the Type I error rate, and increase the power of the test for the treatment effect from 80% to 85%~90% when the variances from the DTG can explain 5%~10% of the variation in the RCT participants' outcomes.

Continual Driving Policy Optimization with Closed-Loop Individualized Curricula

The safety of autonomous vehicles (AV) has been a long-standing top concern, stemming from the absence of rare and safety-critical scenarios in the long-tail naturalistic driving distribution. To tackle this challenge, a surge of research in scenario-based autonomous driving has emerged, with a focus on generating high-risk driving scenarios and applying them to conduct safety-critical testing of AV models. However, limited work has been explored on the reuse of these extensive scenarios to iteratively improve AV models. Moreover, it remains intractable and challenging to filter through gigantic scenario libraries collected from other AV models with distinct behaviors, attempting to extract transferable information for current AV improvement. Therefore, we develop a continual driving policy optimization framework featuring Closed-Loop Individualized Curricula (CLIC), which we factorize into a set of standardized sub-modules for flexible implementation choices: AV Evaluation, Scenario Selection, and AV Training. CLIC frames AV Evaluation as a collision prediction task, where it estimates the chance of AV failures in these scenarios at each iteration. Subsequently, by re-sampling from historical scenarios based on these failure probabilities, CLIC tailors individualized curricula for downstream training, aligning them with the evaluated capability of AV. Accordingly, CLIC not only maximizes the utilization of the vast pre-collected scenario library for closed-loop driving policy optimization but also facilitates AV improvement by individualizing its training with more challenging cases out of those poorly organized scenarios. Experimental results clearly indicate that CLIC surpasses other curriculum-based training strategies, showing substantial improvement in managing risky scenarios, while still maintaining proficiency in handling simpler cases.

Adapt then Unlearn: Exploiting Parameter Space Semantics for Unlearning in Generative Adversarial Networks

The increased attention to regulating the outputs of deep generative models, driven by growing concerns about privacy and regulatory compliance, has highlighted the need for effective control over these models. This necessity arises from instances where generative models produce outputs containing undesirable, offensive, or potentially harmful content. To tackle this challenge, the concept of machine unlearning has emerged, aiming to forget specific learned information or to erase the influence of undesired data subsets from a trained model. The objective of this work is to prevent the generation of outputs containing undesired features from a pre-trained GAN where the underlying training data set is inaccessible. Our approach is inspired by a crucial observation: the parameter space of GANs exhibits meaningful directions that can be leveraged to suppress specific undesired features. However, such directions usually result in the degradation of the quality of generated samples. Our proposed method, known as 'Adapt-then-Unlearn,' excels at unlearning such undesirable features while also maintaining the quality of generated samples. This method unfolds in two stages: in the initial stage, we adapt the pre-trained GAN using negative samples provided by the user, while in the subsequent stage, we focus on unlearning the undesired feature. During the latter phase, we train the pre-trained GAN using positive samples, incorporating a repulsion regularizer. This regularizer encourages the model's parameters to be away from the parameters associated with the adapted model from the first stage while also maintaining the quality of generated samples. To the best of our knowledge, our approach stands as first method addressing unlearning in GANs. We validate the effectiveness of our method through comprehensive experiments.

CINFormer: Transformer network with multi-stage CNN feature injection for surface defect segmentation

Surface defect inspection is of great importance for industrial manufacture and production. Though defect inspection methods based on deep learning have made significant progress, there are still some challenges for these methods, such as indistinguishable weak defects and defect-like interference in the background. To address these issues, we propose a transformer network with multi-stage CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) feature injection for surface defect segmentation, which is a UNet-like structure named CINFormer. CINFormer presents a simple yet effective feature integration mechanism that injects the multi-level CNN features of the input image into different stages of the transformer network in the encoder. This can maintain the merit of CNN capturing detailed features and that of transformer depressing noises in the background, which facilitates accurate defect detection. In addition, CINFormer presents a Top-K self-attention module to focus on tokens with more important information about the defects, so as to further reduce the impact of the redundant background. Extensive experiments conducted on the surface defect datasets DAGM 2007, Magnetic tile, and NEU show that the proposed CINFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance in defect detection.

Enhancing Graph Representation of the Environment through Local and Cloud Computation

Enriching the robot representation of the operational environment is a challenging task that aims at bridging the gap between low-level sensor readings and high-level semantic understanding. Having a rich representation often requires computationally demanding architectures and pure point cloud based detection systems that struggle when dealing with everyday objects that have to be handled by the robot. To overcome these issues, we propose a graph-based representation that addresses this gap by providing a semantic representation of robot environments from multiple sources. In fact, to acquire information from the environment, the framework combines classical computer vision tools with modern computer vision cloud services, ensuring computational feasibility on onboard hardware. By incorporating an ontology hierarchy with over 800 object classes, the framework achieves cross-domain adaptability, eliminating the need for environment-specific tools. The proposed approach allows us to handle also small objects and integrate them into the semantic representation of the environment. The approach is implemented in the Robot Operating System (ROS) using the RViz visualizer for environment representation. This work is a first step towards the development of a general-purpose framework, to facilitate intuitive interaction and navigation across different domains.