The Impact of AI on the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance and the Character of Cyber Conflict

Unlike other domains of conflict, and unlike other fields with high anticipated risk from AI, the cyber domain is intrinsically digital with a tight feedback loop between AI training and cyber application. Cyber may have some of the largest and earliest impacts from AI, so it is important to understand how the cyber domain may change as AI continues to advance. Our approach reviewed the literature, collecting nine arguments that have been proposed for offensive advantage in cyber conflict and nine proposed arguments for defensive advantage. We include an additional forty-eight arguments that have been proposed to give cyber conflict and competition its character as collected separately by Healey, Jervis, and Nandrajog. We then consider how each of those arguments and propositions might change with varying degrees of AI advancement. We find that the cyber domain is too multifaceted for a single answer to whether AI will enhance offense or defense broadly. AI will improve some aspects, hinder others, and leave some aspects unchanged. We collect and present forty-four ways that we expect AI to impact the cyber offense-defense balance and the character of cyber conflict and competition.