Stage-1 Controls the Entropy Regime, Not the Outcome

Two-stage post-training -- a Stage-1 warm-start (supervised fine-tuning, SFT, or on-policy distillation, OPD) followed by Stage-2 reinforcement learning (RL) -- is increasingly used for vision-language models (VLMs). We ask what Stage-1 actually controls in a small-data study using Qwen2.5-VL-7B with a same-modality 72B VLM teacher for OPD. First, the three warm-starts reach a narrow $53$--$54\%$ band on Geometry3K internal validation, consistent with the narrow range reported by recent specialized methods; this setup provides little evidence that Stage-1 changes the in-domain endpoint. Second, a matched-recipe, early-stopped SFT improves out-of-domain MathVista by $+2.1$ points, reversing the $-9.5$-point drop of an over-trained variant. The clearest difference is the \emph{entropy regime}: OPD enters RL with substantially higher policy entropy than either SFT initialization, and the separation remains visible through the available trajectories. At the in-domain initialization, OPD also has higher answer diversity and pass@16 ($+2.0$ to $+5.2$ points over SFT), although problem-level bootstrap intervals show that the smaller contrast is uncertain. The advantage is absent after RL (endpoint pass@16 values within $1.1$ points) and on MathVista (six models within $1.2$ points). Our contribution is therefore a bounded empirical characterization: Stage-1 is strongly associated with the entropy regime in this setup, but the downstream payoff is small, localized, and not evidence that OPD is a better RL warm-start.