Monty Hall and Optimized Conformal Prediction to Improve Decision-Making with LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) are empowering decision-making in several applications, including tool or API usage and answering multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, they often make overconfident, incorrect predictions, which can be risky in high-stakes settings like healthcare and finance. To mitigate these risks, recent works have used conformal prediction (CP), a model-agnostic framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. CP transforms a \emph{score function} into prediction sets that contain the true answer with high probability. While CP provides this coverage guarantee for arbitrary scores, the score quality significantly impacts prediction set sizes. Prior works have relied on LLM logits or other heuristic scores, lacking quality guarantees. We address this limitation by introducing CP-OPT, an optimization framework to learn scores that minimize set sizes while maintaining coverage. Furthermore, inspired by the Monty Hall problem, we extend CP's utility beyond uncertainty quantification to improve accuracy. We propose \emph{conformal revision of questions} (CROQ) to revise the problem by narrowing down the available choices to those in the prediction set. The coverage guarantee of CP ensures that the correct choice is in the revised question prompt with high probability, while the smaller number of choices increases the LLM's chances of answering it correctly. Experiments on MMLU, ToolAlpaca, and TruthfulQA datasets with Gemma-2, Llama-3 and Phi-3 models show that CP-OPT significantly reduces set sizes while maintaining coverage, and CROQ improves accuracy over the standard inference, especially when paired with CP-OPT scores. Together, CP-OPT and CROQ offer a robust framework for improving both the safety and accuracy of LLM-driven decision-making.