Machine Vision-Based Crop-Load Estimation Using YOLOv8

Labor shortages in fruit crop production have prompted the development of mechanized and automated machines as alternatives to labor-intensive orchard operations such as harvesting, pruning, and thinning. Agricultural robots capable of identifying tree canopy parts and estimating geometric and topological parameters, such as branch diameter, length, and angles, can optimize crop yields through automated pruning and thinning platforms. In this study, we proposed a machine vision system to estimate canopy parameters in apple orchards and determine an optimal number of fruit for individual branches, providing a foundation for robotic pruning, flower thinning, and fruitlet thinning to achieve desired yield and quality.Using color and depth information from an RGB-D sensor (Microsoft Azure Kinect DK), a YOLOv8-based instance segmentation technique was developed to identify trunks and branches of apple trees during the dormant season. Principal Component Analysis was applied to estimate branch diameter (used to calculate limb cross-sectional area, or LCSA) and orientation. The estimated branch diameter was utilized to calculate LCSA, which served as an input for crop-load estimation, with larger LCSA values indicating a higher potential fruit-bearing capacity.RMSE for branch diameter estimation was 2.08 mm, and for crop-load estimation, 3.95. Based on commercial apple orchard management practices, the target crop-load (number of fruit) for each segmented branch was estimated with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.99 (ground truth crop-load was 6 apples per LCSA). This study demonstrated a promising workflow with high performance in identifying trunks and branches of apple trees in dynamic commercial orchard environments and integrating farm management practices into automated decision-making.