Heat-Kernel Entropy Profiles and Geometric Effective Sample Size for Weighted Measures on Manifolds

Weighted empirical measures on compact manifolds arise in importance sampling, particle approximations, posterior summaries, quadrature, and representation learning. Standard weight-only summaries, such as ordinary effective sample size, ignore the geometry of the support. We introduce heat-kernel entropy profiles, a multiscale summary that diffuses weighted atoms by intrinsic heat flow and tracks nonuniformity across scales. For order-two Rényi entropy, the profile is computable from pairwise heat-kernel overlaps and yields a geometric effective sample size that discounts nearby or duplicate particles while matching ordinary effective sample size for well-separated particles. We prove monotonicity, small- and large-scale asymptotics, deterministic-weight consistency, and a bounded-ratio self-normalized importance-sampling extension for compact manifolds without boundary. On spheres, the unlogged profile decomposes into spherical-harmonic energies that recover mean-direction, von Mises-Fisher-type, and Bingham-type summaries. Sphere-based experiments show that the profile reveals antipodal, girdle, multimodal, and duplicate-particle structure missed by weight-only and first-moment spherical summaries.