Deconstructing sentence disambiguation by joint latent modeling of reading paradigms: LLM surprisal is not enough

Using temporarily ambiguous garden-path sentences ("While the team trained the striker wondered ...") as a test case, we present a latent-process mixture model of human reading behavior across four different reading paradigms (eye tracking, uni- and bidirectional self-paced reading, Maze). The model distinguishes between garden-path probability, garden-path cost, and reanalysis cost, and yields more realistic processing cost estimates by taking into account trials with inattentive reading. We show that the model is able to reproduce empirical patterns with regard to rereading behavior, comprehension question responses, and grammaticality judgments. Cross-validation reveals that the mixture model also has better predictive fit to human reading patterns and end-of-trial task data than a mixture-free model based on GPT-2-derived surprisal values. We discuss implications for future work.