Curvature-aware Expected Free Energy as an Acquisition Function for Bayesian Optimization

We propose an Expected Free Energy-based acquisition function for Bayesian optimization to solve the joint learning and optimization problem, i.e., optimize and learn the underlying function simultaneously. We show that, under specific assumptions, Expected Free Energy reduces to Upper Confidence Bound, Lower Confidence Bound, and Expected Information Gain. We prove that Expected Free Energy has unbiased convergence guarantees for concave functions. Using the results from these derivations, we introduce a curvature-aware update law for Expected Free Energy and show its proof of concept using a system identification problem on a Van der Pol oscillator. Through rigorous simulation experiments, we show that our adaptive Expected Free Energy-based acquisition function outperforms state-of-the-art acquisition functions with the least final simple regret and error in learning the Gaussian process.