Traditionally, when recommender systems are formalized as multi-armed bandits, the policy of the recommender system influences the rewards accrued, but not the length of interaction. However, in real-world systems, dissatisfied users may depart (and never come back). In this work, we propose a novel multi-armed bandit setup that captures such policy-dependent horizons. Our setup consists of a finite set of user types, and multiple arms with Bernoulli payoffs. Each (user type, arm) tuple corresponds to an (unknown) reward probability. Each user's type is initially unknown and can only be inferred through their response to recommendations. Moreover, if a user is dissatisfied with their recommendation, they might depart the system. We first address the case where all users share the same type, demonstrating that a recent UCB-based algorithm is optimal. We then move forward to the more challenging case, where users are divided among two types. While naive approaches cannot handle this setting, we provide an efficient learning algorithm that achieves $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret, where $T$ is the number of users.
In this paper, we develop a general framework based on the Transformer architecture to address a variety of challenging treatment effect estimation (TEE) problems. Our methods are applicable both when covariates are tabular and when they consist of sequences (e.g., in text), and can handle discrete, continuous, structured, or dosage-associated treatments. While Transformers have already emerged as dominant methods for diverse domains, including natural language and computer vision, our experiments with Transformers as Treatment Effect Estimators (TransTEE) demonstrate that these inductive biases are also effective on the sorts of estimation problems and datasets that arise in research aimed at estimating causal effects. Moreover, we propose a propensity score network that is trained with TransTEE in an adversarial manner to promote independence between covariates and treatments to further address selection bias. Through extensive experiments, we show that TransTEE significantly outperforms competitive baselines with greater parameter efficiency over a wide range of benchmarks and settings.
Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance $2$-$4\times$ more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works.
In attempts to "explain" predictions of machine learning models, researchers have proposed hundreds of techniques for attributing predictions to features that are deemed important. While these attributions are often claimed to hold the potential to improve human "understanding" of the models, surprisingly little work explicitly evaluates progress towards this aspiration. In this paper, we conduct a crowdsourcing study, where participants interact with deception detection models that have been trained to distinguish between genuine and fake hotel reviews. They are challenged both to simulate the model on fresh reviews, and to edit reviews with the goal of lowering the probability of the originally predicted class. Successful manipulations would lead to an adversarial example. During the training (but not the test) phase, input spans are highlighted to communicate salience. Through our evaluation, we observe that for a linear bag-of-words model, participants with access to the feature coefficients during training are able to cause a larger reduction in model confidence in the testing phase when compared to the no-explanation control. For the BERT-based classifier, popular local explanations do not improve their ability to reduce the model confidence over the no-explanation case. Remarkably, when the explanation for the BERT model is given by the (global) attributions of a linear model trained to imitate the BERT model, people can effectively manipulate the model.
Given only positive examples and unlabeled examples (from both positive and negative classes), we might hope nevertheless to estimate an accurate positive-versus-negative classifier. Formally, this task is broken down into two subtasks: (i) Mixture Proportion Estimation (MPE) -- determining the fraction of positive examples in the unlabeled data; and (ii) PU-learning -- given such an estimate, learning the desired positive-versus-negative classifier. Unfortunately, classical methods for both problems break down in high-dimensional settings. Meanwhile, recently proposed heuristics lack theoretical coherence and depend precariously on hyperparameter tuning. In this paper, we propose two simple techniques: Best Bin Estimation (BBE) (for MPE); and Conditional Value Ignoring Risk (CVIR), a simple objective for PU-learning. Both methods dominate previous approaches empirically, and for BBE, we establish formal guarantees that hold whenever we can train a model to cleanly separate out a small subset of positive examples. Our final algorithm (TED)$^n$, alternates between the two procedures, significantly improving both our mixture proportion estimator and classifier
In attempts to develop sample-efficient algorithms, researcher have explored myriad mechanisms for collecting and exploiting feature feedback, auxiliary annotations provided for training (but not test) instances that highlight salient evidence. Examples include bounding boxes around objects and salient spans in text. Despite its intuitive appeal, feature feedback has not delivered significant gains in practical problems as assessed on iid holdout sets. However, recent works on counterfactually augmented data suggest an alternative benefit of supplemental annotations: lessening sensitivity to spurious patterns and consequently delivering gains in out-of-domain evaluations. Inspired by these findings, we hypothesize that while the numerous existing methods for incorporating feature feedback have delivered negligible in-sample gains, they may nevertheless generalize better out-of-domain. In experiments addressing sentiment analysis, we show that feature feedback methods perform significantly better on various natural out-of-domain datasets even absent differences on in-domain evaluation. By contrast, on natural language inference tasks, performance remains comparable. Finally, we compare those tasks where feature feedback does (and does not) help.
Pretraining techniques leveraging enormous datasets have driven recent advances in text summarization. While folk explanations suggest that knowledge transfer accounts for pretraining's benefits, little is known about why it works or what makes a pretraining task or dataset suitable. In this paper, we challenge the knowledge transfer story, showing that pretraining on documents consisting of character n-grams selected at random, we can nearly match the performance of models pretrained on real corpora. This work holds the promise of eliminating upstream corpora, which may alleviate some concerns over offensive language, bias, and copyright issues. To see whether the small residual benefit of using real data could be accounted for by the structure of the pretraining task, we design several tasks motivated by a qualitative study of summarization corpora. However, these tasks confer no appreciable benefit, leaving open the possibility of a small role for knowledge transfer.
Researchers often face data fusion problems, where multiple data sources are available, each capturing a distinct subset of variables. While problem formulations typically take the data as given, in practice, data acquisition can be an ongoing process. In this paper, we aim to estimate any functional of a probabilistic model (e.g., a causal effect) as efficiently as possible, by deciding, at each time, which data source to query. We propose online moment selection (OMS), a framework in which structural assumptions are encoded as moment conditions. The optimal action at each step depends, in part, on the very moments that identify the functional of interest. Our algorithms balance exploration with choosing the best action as suggested by current estimates of the moments. We propose two selection strategies: (1) explore-then-commit (OMS-ETC) and (2) explore-then-greedy (OMS-ETG), proving that both achieve zero asymptotic regret as assessed by MSE. We instantiate our setup for average treatment effect estimation, where structural assumptions are given by a causal graph and data sources may include subsets of mediators, confounders, and instrumental variables.