Existing approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. An instance of this is importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discuss how to implement our method in a generic probabilistic programming framework.
We propose a deep amortized clustering (DAC), a neural architecture which learns to cluster datasets efficiently using a few forward passes. DAC implicitly learns what makes a cluster, how to group data points into clusters, and how to count the number of clusters in datasets. DAC is meta-learned using labelled datasets for training, a process distinct from traditional clustering algorithms which usually require hand-specified prior knowledge about cluster shapes/structures. We empirically show, on both synthetic and image data, that DAC can efficiently and accurately cluster new datasets coming from the same distribution used to generate training datasets.
An object can be seen as a geometrically organized set of interrelated parts. A system that makes explicit use of these geometric relationships to recognize objects should be naturally robust to changes in viewpoint, because the intrinsic geometric relationships are viewpoint-invariant. We describe an unsupervised version of capsule networks, in which a neural encoder, which looks at all of the parts, is used to infer the presence and poses of object capsules. The encoder is trained by backpropagating through a decoder, which predicts the pose of each already discovered part using a mixture of pose predictions. The parts are discovered directly from an image, in a similar manner, by using a neural encoder, which infers parts and their affine transformations. The corresponding decoder models each image pixel as a mixture of predictions made by affine-transformed parts. We learn object- and their part-capsules on unlabeled data, and then cluster the vectors of presences of object capsules. When told the names of these clusters, we achieve state-of-the-art results for unsupervised classification on SVHN (55%) and near state-of-the-art on MNIST (98.5%).
Space partitioning methods such as random forests and the Mondrian process are powerful machine learning methods for multi-dimensional and relational data, and are based on recursively cutting a domain. The flexibility of these methods is often limited by the requirement that the cuts be axis aligned. The Ostomachion process and the self-consistent binary space partitioning-tree process were recently introduced as generalizations of the Mondrian process for space partitioning with non-axis aligned cuts in the two dimensional plane. Motivated by the need for a multi-dimensional partitioning tree with non-axis aligned cuts, we propose the Random Tessellation Process (RTP), a framework that includes the Mondrian process and the binary space partitioning-tree process as special cases. We derive a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for inference, and provide random forest methods. Our process is self-consistent and can relax axis-aligned constraints, allowing complex inter-dimensional dependence to be captured. We present a simulation study, and analyse gene expression data of brain tissue, showing improved accuracies over other methods.
While neural networks are powerful function approximators, they suffer from catastrophic forgetting when the data distribution is not stationary. One particular formalism that studies learning under non-stationary distribution is provided by continual learning, where the non-stationarity is imposed by a sequence of distinct tasks. Most methods in this space assume, however, the knowledge of task boundaries, and focus on alleviating catastrophic forgetting. In this work, we depart from this view and move the focus towards faster remembering -- i.e measuring how quickly the network recovers performance rather than measuring the network's performance without any adaptation. We argue that in many settings this can be more effective and that it opens the door to combining meta-learning and continual learning techniques, leveraging their complementary advantages. We propose a framework specific for the scenario where no information about task boundaries or task identity is given. It relies on a separation of concerns into what task is being solved and how the task should be solved. This framework is implemented by differentiating task specific parameters from task agnostic parameters, where the latter are optimized in a continual meta learning fashion, without access to multiple tasks at the same time. We showcase this framework in a supervised learning scenario and discuss the implication of the proposed formalism.
Recent work has shown that deep generative models can assign higher likelihood to out-of-distribution data sets than to their training data. We posit that this phenomenon is caused by a mismatch between the model's typical set and its areas of high probability density. In-distribution inputs should reside in the former but not necessarily in the latter, as previous work has presumed. To determine whether or not inputs reside in the typical set, we propose a statistically principled, easy-to-implement test using the empirical distribution of model likelihoods. The test is model agnostic and widely applicable, only requiring that the likelihood can be computed or closely approximated. We report experiments showing that our procedure can successfully detect the out-of-distribution sets in several of the challenging cases reported by Nalisnick et al. (2019).
Current meta-learning approaches focus on learning functional representations of relationships between variables, i.e. on estimating conditional expectations in regression. In many applications, however, we are faced with conditional distributions which cannot be meaningfully summarized using expectation only (due to e.g. multimodality). Hence, we consider the problem of conditional density estimation in the meta-learning setting. We introduce a novel technique for meta-learning which combines neural representation and noise-contrastive estimation with the established literature of conditional mean embeddings into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The method is validated on synthetic and real-world problems, demonstrating the utility of sharing learned representations across multiple conditional density estimation tasks.
Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is difficult to interpret, which reduces their usefulness to policymakers. In this paper, we introduce an approach that allows one to treat a large class of population-based epidemiology simulators as probabilistic generative models. This is achieved by hijacking the internal random number generator calls, through the use of a universal probabilistic programming system (PPS). In contrast to other methods, our approach can be easily retrofitted to simulators written in popular industrial programming frameworks. We demonstrate that our method can be used for interpretable introspection and inference, thus shedding light on black-box simulators. This reinstates much-needed trust between policymakers and evidence-based methods.
Humans achieve efficient learning by relying on prior knowledge about the structure of naturally occurring tasks. There has been considerable interest in designing reinforcement learning algorithms with similar properties. This includes several proposals to learn the learning algorithm itself, an idea also referred to as meta learning. One formal interpretation of this idea is in terms of a partially observable multi-task reinforcement learning problem in which information about the task is hidden from the agent. Although agents that solve partially observable environments can be trained from rewards alone, shaping an agent's memory with additional supervision has been shown to boost learning efficiency. It is thus natural to ask what kind of supervision, if any, facilitates meta-learning. Here we explore several choices and develop an architecture that separates learning of the belief about the unknown task from learning of the policy, and that can be used effectively with privileged information about the task during training. We show that this approach can be very effective at solving standard meta-RL environments, as well as a complex continuous control environment in which a simulated robot has to execute various movement sequences.
In this report we review memory-based meta-learning as a tool for building sample-efficient strategies that learn from past experience to adapt to any task within a target class. Our goal is to equip the reader with the conceptual foundations of this tool for building new, scalable agents that operate on broad domains. To do so, we present basic algorithmic templates for building near-optimal predictors and reinforcement learners which behave as if they had a probabilistic model that allowed them to efficiently exploit task structure. Furthermore, we recast memory-based meta-learning within a Bayesian framework, showing that the meta-learned strategies are near-optimal because they amortize Bayes-filtered data, where the adaptation is implemented in the memory dynamics as a state-machine of sufficient statistics. Essentially, memory-based meta-learning translates the hard problem of probabilistic sequential inference into a regression problem.