Weather forecasting is a long standing scientific challenge with direct social and economic impact. The task is suitable for deep neural networks due to vast amounts of continuously collected data and a rich spatial and temporal structure that presents long range dependencies. We introduce MetNet, a neural network that forecasts precipitation up to 8 hours into the future at the high spatial resolution of 1 km$^2$ and at the temporal resolution of 2 minutes with a latency in the order of seconds. MetNet takes as input radar and satellite data and forecast lead time and produces a probabilistic precipitation map. The architecture uses axial self-attention to aggregate the global context from a large input patch corresponding to a million square kilometers. We evaluate the performance of MetNet at various precipitation thresholds and find that MetNet outperforms Numerical Weather Prediction at forecasts of up to 7 to 8 hours on the scale of the continental United States.
Consistency regularization is a technique for semi-supervised learning that has recently been shown to yield strong results for classification with few labeled data. The method works by perturbing input data using augmentation or adversarial examples, and encouraging the learned model to be robust to these perturbations on unlabeled data. Here, we evaluate the use of a recently proposed augmentation method, called CowMasK, for this purpose. Using CowMask as the augmentation method in semi-supervised consistency regularization, we establish a new state-of-the-art result on Imagenet with 10% labeled data, with a top-5 error of 8.76% and top-1 error of 26.06%. Moreover, we do so with a method that is much simpler than alternative methods. We further investigate the behavior of CowMask for semi-supervised learning by running many smaller scale experiments on the small image benchmarks SVHN, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, where we achieve results competitive with the state of the art, and where we find evidence that the CowMask perturbation is widely applicable. We open source our code at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/milking_cowmask
Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the approximate posterior in the hope of improving performance. In contrast, here we share a curious experimental finding that suggests instead restricting the variational distribution to a more compact parameterization. For a variety of deep Bayesian neural networks trained using Gaussian mean-field variational inference, we find that the posterior standard deviations consistently exhibit strong low-rank structure after convergence. This means that by decomposing these variational parameters into a low-rank factorization, we can make our variational approximation more compact without decreasing the models' performance. Furthermore, we find that such factorized parameterizations improve the signal-to-noise ratio of stochastic gradient estimates of the variational lower bound, resulting in faster convergence.
During the past five years the Bayesian deep learning community has developed increasingly accurate and efficient approximate inference procedures that allow for Bayesian inference in deep neural networks. However, despite this algorithmic progress and the promise of improved uncertainty quantification and sample efficiency there are---as of early 2020---no publicized deployments of Bayesian neural networks in industrial practice. In this work we cast doubt on the current understanding of Bayes posteriors in popular deep neural networks: we demonstrate through careful MCMC sampling that the posterior predictive induced by the Bayes posterior yields systematically worse predictions compared to simpler methods including point estimates obtained from SGD. Furthermore, we demonstrate that predictive performance is improved significantly through the use of a "cold posterior" that overcounts evidence. Such cold posteriors sharply deviate from the Bayesian paradigm but are commonly used as heuristic in Bayesian deep learning papers. We put forward several hypotheses that could explain cold posteriors and evaluate the hypotheses through experiments. Our work questions the goal of accurate posterior approximations in Bayesian deep learning: If the true Bayes posterior is poor, what is the use of more accurate approximations? Instead, we argue that it is timely to focus on understanding the origin of the improved performance of cold posteriors.
Ensembles of models have been empirically shown to improve predictive performance and to yield robust measures of uncertainty. However, they are expensive in computation and memory. Therefore, recent research has focused on distilling ensembles into a single compact model, reducing the computational and memory burden of the ensemble while trying to preserve its predictive behavior. Most existing distillation formulations summarize the ensemble by capturing its average predictions. As a result, the diversity of the ensemble predictions, stemming from each individual member, is lost. Thus, the distilled model cannot provide a measure of uncertainty comparable to that of the original ensemble. To retain more faithfully the diversity of the ensemble, we propose a distillation method based on a single multi-headed neural network, which we refer to as Hydra. The shared body network learns a joint feature representation that enables each head to capture the predictive behavior of each ensemble member. We demonstrate that with a slight increase in parameter count, Hydra improves distillation performance on classification and regression settings while capturing the uncertainty behaviour of the original ensemble over both in-domain and out-of-distribution tasks.
We propose Axial Transformers, a self-attention-based autoregressive model for images and other data organized as high dimensional tensors. Existing autoregressive models either suffer from excessively large computational resource requirements for high dimensional data, or make compromises in terms of distribution expressiveness or ease of implementation in order to decrease resource requirements. Our architecture, by contrast, maintains both full expressiveness over joint distributions over data and ease of implementation with standard deep learning frameworks, while requiring reasonable memory and computation and achieving state-of-the-art results on standard generative modeling benchmarks. Our models are based on axial attention, a simple generalization of self-attention that naturally aligns with the multiple dimensions of the tensors in both the encoding and the decoding settings. Notably the proposed structure of the layers allows for the vast majority of the context to be computed in parallel during decoding without introducing any independence assumptions. This semi-parallel structure goes a long way to making decoding from even a very large Axial Transformer broadly applicable. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results for the Axial Transformer on the ImageNet-32 and ImageNet-64 image benchmarks as well as on the BAIR Robotic Pushing video benchmark. We open source the implementation of Axial Transformers.
On April 13th, 2019, OpenAI Five became the first AI system to defeat the world champions at an esports game. The game of Dota 2 presents novel challenges for AI systems such as long time horizons, imperfect information, and complex, continuous state-action spaces, all challenges which will become increasingly central to more capable AI systems. OpenAI Five leveraged existing reinforcement learning techniques, scaled to learn from batches of approximately 2 million frames every 2 seconds. We developed a distributed training system and tools for continual training which allowed us to train OpenAI Five for 10 months. By defeating the Dota 2 world champion (Team OG), OpenAI Five demonstrates that self-play reinforcement learning can achieve superhuman performance on a difficult task.
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms perform simulation-based search to improve policies online. During search, the simulation policy is adapted to explore the most promising lines of play. MCTS has been used by state-of-the-art programs for many problems, however a disadvantage to MCTS is that it estimates the values of states with Monte Carlo averages, stored in a search tree; this does not scale to games with very high branching factors. We propose an alternative simulation-based search method, Policy Gradient Search (PGS), which adapts a neural network simulation policy online via policy gradient updates, avoiding the need for a search tree. In Hex, PGS achieves comparable performance to MCTS, and an agent trained using Expert Iteration with PGS was able defeat MoHex 2.0, the strongest open-source Hex agent, in 9x9 Hex.
We propose a new method for learning from a single demonstration to solve hard exploration tasks like the Atari game Montezuma's Revenge. Instead of imitating human demonstrations, as proposed in other recent works, our approach is to maximize rewards directly. Our agent is trained using off-the-shelf reinforcement learning, but starts every episode by resetting to a state from a demonstration. By starting from such demonstration states, the agent requires much less exploration to learn a game compared to when it starts from the beginning of the game at every episode. We analyze reinforcement learning for tasks with sparse rewards in a simple toy environment, where we show that the run-time of standard RL methods scales exponentially in the number of states between rewards. Our method reduces this to quadratic scaling, opening up many tasks that were previously infeasible. We then apply our method to Montezuma's Revenge, for which we present a trained agent achieving a high-score of 74,500, better than any previously published result.
We present Optimal Transport GAN (OT-GAN), a variant of generative adversarial nets minimizing a new metric measuring the distance between the generator distribution and the data distribution. This metric, which we call mini-batch energy distance, combines optimal transport in primal form with an energy distance defined in an adversarially learned feature space, resulting in a highly discriminative distance function with unbiased mini-batch gradients. Experimentally we show OT-GAN to be highly stable when trained with large mini-batches, and we present state-of-the-art results on several popular benchmark problems for image generation.