The Reward-Biased Maximum Likelihood Estimate (RBMLE) for adaptive control of Markov chains was proposed in (Kumar and Becker, 1982) to overcome the central obstacle of what is called the "closed-identifiability problem" of adaptive control, the "dual control problem" by Feldbaum (Feldbaum, 1960a,b), or the "exploration vs. exploitation problem". It exploited the key observation that since the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can asymptotically identify the closed-transition probabilities under a certainty equivalent approach (Borkar and Varaiya, 1979), the limiting parameter estimates must necessarily have an optimal reward that is less than the optimal reward for the true but unknown system. Hence it proposed a bias in favor of parameters with larger optimal rewards, providing a carefully structured solution to above problem. It thereby proposed an optimistic approach of favoring parameters with larger optimal rewards, now known as "optimism in the face of uncertainty." The RBMLE approach has been proved to be longterm average reward optimal in a variety of contexts including controlled Markov chains, linear quadratic Gaussian systems, some nonlinear systems, and diffusions. However, modern attention is focused on the much finer notion of "regret," or finite-time performance for all time, espoused by (Lai and Robbins, 1985). Recent analysis of RBMLE for multi-armed stochastic bandits (Liu et al., 2020) and linear contextual bandits (Hung et al., 2020) has shown that it has state-of-the-art regret and exhibits empirical performance comparable to or better than the best current contenders. Motivated by this, we examine the finite-time performance of RBMLE for reinforcement learning tasks of optimal control of unknown Markov Decision Processes. We show that it has a regret of $O(\log T)$ after $T$ steps, similar to state-of-art algorithms.
The deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved great success in learning complex patterns with strong predictive power, but they are often thought of as "black box" models without a sufficient level of transparency and interpretability. It is important to demystify the DNNs with rigorous mathematics and practical tools, especially when they are used for mission-critical applications. This paper aims to unwrap the black box of deep ReLU networks through local linear representation, which utilizes the activation pattern and disentangles the complex network into an equivalent set of local linear models (LLMs). We develop a convenient LLM-based toolkit for interpretability, diagnostics, and simplification of a pre-trained deep ReLU network. We propose the local linear profile plot and other visualization methods for interpretation and diagnostics, and an effective merging strategy for network simplification. The proposed methods are demonstrated by simulation examples, benchmark datasets, and a real case study in home lending credit risk assessment.
We consider a class of filtering problems for large populations where each individual is modeled by the same hidden Markov model (HMM). In this paper, we focus on aggregate inference problems in HMMs with discrete state space and continuous observation space. The continuous observations are aggregated in a way such that the individuals are indistinguishable from measurements. We propose an aggregate inference algorithm called continuous observation collective forward-backward algorithm. It extends the recently proposed collective forward-backward algorithm for aggregate inference in HMMs with discrete observations to the case of continuous observations. The efficacy of this algorithm is illustrated through several numerical experiments.
We study a variant of the classical multi-armed bandit problem (MABP) which we call as Multi-Armed Bandits with dependent arms. More specifically, multiple arms are grouped together to form a cluster, and the reward distributions of arms belonging to the same cluster are known functions of an unknown parameter that is a characteristic of the cluster. Thus, pulling an arm $i$ not only reveals information about its own reward distribution, but also about all those arms that share the same cluster with arm $i$. This "correlation" amongst the arms complicates the exploration-exploitation trade-off that is encountered in the MABP because the observation dependencies allow us to test simultaneously multiple hypotheses regarding the optimality of an arm. We develop learning algorithms based on the UCB principle which utilize these additional side observations appropriately while performing exploration-exploitation trade-off. We show that the regret of our algorithms grows as $O(K\log T)$, where $K$ is the number of clusters. In contrast, for an algorithm such as the vanilla UCB that is optimal for the classical MABP and does not utilize these dependencies, the regret scales as $O(M\log T)$ where $M$ is the number of arms.
We propose a novel framework for non-parametric policy evaluation in static and dynamic settings. Under the assumption of selection on observables, we consider treatment effects of the population, of sub-populations, and of alternative populations that may have alternative covariate distributions. We further consider the decomposition of a total effect into a direct effect and an indirect effect (as mediated by a particular mechanism). Under the assumption of sequential selection on observables, we consider the effects of sequences of treatments. Across settings, we allow for treatments that may be discrete, continuous, or even text. Across settings, we allow for estimation of not only counterfactual mean outcomes but also counterfactual distributions of outcomes. We unify analyses across settings by showing that all of these causal learning problems reduce to the re-weighting of a prediction, i.e. causal adjustment. We implement the re-weighting as an inner product in a function space called a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), with a closed form solution that can be computed in one line of code. We prove uniform consistency and provide finite sample rates of convergence. We evaluate our estimators in simulations devised by other authors. We use our new estimators to evaluate continuous and heterogeneous treatment effects of the US Jobs Corps training program for disadvantaged youth.
We propose algorithms to create adversarial attacks to assess model robustness in text classification problems. They can be used to create white box attacks and black box attacks while at the same time preserving the semantics and syntax of the original text. The attacks cause significant number of flips in white-box setting and same rule based can be used in black-box setting. In a black-box setting, the attacks created are able to reverse decisions of transformer based architectures.
We propose algorithms to create adversarial attacks to assess model robustness in text classification problems. They can be used to create white box attacks and black box attacks while at the same time preserving the semantics and syntax of the original text. The attacks cause significant number of flips in white-box setting and same rule based can be used in black-box setting. In a black-box setting, the attacks created are able to reverse decisions of transformer based architectures.