Evaluating agent performance when outcomes are stochastic and agents use randomized strategies can be challenging when there is limited data available. The variance of sampled outcomes may make the simple approach of Monte Carlo sampling inadequate. This is the case for agents playing heads-up no-limit Texas hold'em poker, where man-machine competitions have involved multiple days of consistent play and still not resulted in statistically significant conclusions even when the winner's margin is substantial. In this paper, we introduce AIVAT, a low variance, provably unbiased value assessment tool that uses an arbitrary heuristic estimate of state value, as well as the explicit strategy of a subset of the agents. Unlike existing techniques which reduce the variance from chance events, or only consider game ending actions, AIVAT reduces the variance both from choices by nature and by players with a known strategy. The resulting estimator in no-limit poker can reduce the number of hands needed to draw statistical conclusions by more than a factor of 10.
Several large cloze-style context-question-answer datasets have been introduced recently: the CNN and Daily Mail news data and the Children's Book Test. Thanks to the size of these datasets, the associated text comprehension task is well suited for deep-learning techniques that currently seem to outperform all alternative approaches. We present a new, simple model that uses attention to directly pick the answer from the context as opposed to computing the answer using a blended representation of words in the document as is usual in similar models. This makes the model particularly suitable for question-answering problems where the answer is a single word from the document. Ensemble of our models sets new state of the art on all evaluated datasets.
This paper presents results of our experiments for the next utterance ranking on the Ubuntu Dialog Corpus -- the largest publicly available multi-turn dialog corpus. First, we use an in-house implementation of previously reported models to do an independent evaluation using the same data. Second, we evaluate the performances of various LSTMs, Bi-LSTMs and CNNs on the dataset. Third, we create an ensemble by averaging predictions of multiple models. The ensemble further improves the performance and it achieves a state-of-the-art result for the next utterance ranking on this dataset. Finally, we discuss our future plans using this corpus.