Early stopping of iterative algorithms is a widely-used form of regularization in statistics, commonly used in conjunction with boosting and related gradient-type algorithms. Although consistency results have been established in some settings, such estimators are less well-understood than their analogues based on penalized regularization. In this paper, for a relatively broad class of loss functions and boosting algorithms (including L2-boost, LogitBoost and AdaBoost, among others), we exhibit a direct connection between the performance of a stopped iterate and the localized Gaussian complexity of the associated function class. This connection allows us to show that local fixed point analysis of Gaussian or Rademacher complexities, now standard in the analysis of penalized estimators, can be used to derive optimal stopping rules. We derive such stopping rules in detail for various kernel classes, and illustrate the correspondence of our theory with practice for Sobolev kernel classes.
A common problem in machine learning is to rank a set of n items based on pairwise comparisons. Here ranking refers to partitioning the items into sets of pre-specified sizes according to their scores, which includes identification of the top-k items as the most prominent special case. The score of a given item is defined as the probability that it beats a randomly chosen other item. Finding an exact ranking typically requires a prohibitively large number of comparisons, but in practice, approximate rankings are often adequate. Accordingly, we study the problem of finding approximate rankings from pairwise comparisons. We analyze an active ranking algorithm that counts the number of comparisons won, and decides whether to stop or which pair of items to compare next, based on confidence intervals computed from the data collected in previous steps. We show that this algorithm succeeds in recovering approximate rankings using a number of comparisons that is close to optimal up to logarithmic factors. We also present numerical results, showing that in practice, approximation can drastically reduce the number of comparisons required to estimate a ranking.
We propose an alternative framework to existing setups for controlling false alarms when multiple A/B tests are run over time. This setup arises in many practical applications, e.g. when pharmaceutical companies test new treatment options against control pills for different diseases, or when internet companies test their default webpages versus various alternatives over time. Our framework proposes to replace a sequence of A/B tests by a sequence of best-arm MAB instances, which can be continuously monitored by the data scientist. When interleaving the MAB tests with an an online false discovery rate (FDR) algorithm, we can obtain the best of both worlds: low sample complexity and any time online FDR control. Our main contributions are: (i) to propose reasonable definitions of a null hypothesis for MAB instances; (ii) to demonstrate how one can derive an always-valid sequential p-value that allows continuous monitoring of each MAB test; and (iii) to show that using rejection thresholds of online-FDR algorithms as the confidence levels for the MAB algorithms results in both sample-optimality, high power and low FDR at any point in time. We run extensive simulations to verify our claims, and also report results on real data collected from the New Yorker Cartoon Caption contest.
We propose a top-down algorithm for multiple testing on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), where nodes represent hypotheses and edges specify a partial ordering in which hypotheses must be tested. The procedure is guaranteed to reject a sub-DAG with bounded false discovery rate (FDR) while satisfying the logical constraint that a rejected node's parents must also be rejected. It is designed for sequential testing settings, when the DAG structure is known a priori, but the p-values are obtained selectively (such as sequential conduction of experiments), but the algorithm is also applicable in non-sequential settings when all p-values can be calculated in advance (such as variable/model selection). Our DAGGER algorithm, shorthand for Greedily Evolving Rejections on DAGs, allows for independence, positive or arbitrary dependence of the p-values, and is guaranteed to work on two different types of DAGs: (a) intersection DAGs in which all nodes are intersection hypotheses, with parents being supersets of children, or (b) general DAGs in which all nodes may be elementary hypotheses. The DAGGER procedure has the appealing property that it specializes to known algorithms in the special cases of trees and line graphs, and simplifies to the classic Benjamini-Hochberg procedure when the DAG has no edges. We explore the empirical performance of DAGGER using simulations, as well as a real dataset corresponding to a gene ontology DAG, showing that it performs favorably in terms of time and power.
In the online multiple testing problem, p-values corresponding to different null hypotheses are observed one by one, and the decision of whether or not to reject the current hypothesis must be made immediately, after which the next p-value is observed. Alpha-investing algorithms to control the false discovery rate (FDR), formulated by Foster and Stine, have been generalized and applied to many settings, including quality-preserving databases in science and multiple A/B or multi-armed bandit tests for internet commerce. This paper improves the class of generalized alpha-investing algorithms (GAI) in four ways: (a) we show how to uniformly improve the power of the entire class of monotone GAI procedures by awarding more alpha-wealth for each rejection, giving a win-win resolution to a recent dilemma raised by Javanmard and Montanari, (b) we demonstrate how to incorporate prior weights to indicate domain knowledge of which hypotheses are likely to be non-null, (c) we allow for differing penalties for false discoveries to indicate that some hypotheses may be more important than others, (d) we define a new quantity called the decaying memory false discovery rate (mem-FDR) that may be more meaningful for truly temporal applications, and which alleviates problems that we describe and refer to as "piggybacking" and "alpha-death". Our GAI++ algorithms incorporate all four generalizations simultaneously, and reduce to more powerful variants of earlier algorithms when the weights and decay are all set to unity. Finally, we also describe a simple method to derive new online FDR rules based on an estimated false discovery proportion.
A significant literature studies ways of employing prior knowledge to improve power and precision of multiple testing procedures. Some common forms of prior knowledge may include (a) a priori beliefs about which hypotheses are null, modeled by non-uniform prior weights; (b) differing importances of hypotheses, modeled by differing penalties for false discoveries; (c) multiple arbitrary partitions of the hypotheses into known (possibly overlapping) groups, indicating (dis)similarity of hypotheses; and (d) knowledge of independence, positive or arbitrary dependence between hypotheses or groups, allowing for more aggressive or conservative procedures. We present a unified algorithmic framework called p-filter for global null testing and false discovery rate (FDR) control that allows the scientist to incorporate all four types of prior knowledge (a)-(d) simultaneously, recovering a wide variety of common algorithms as special cases.
Permutation-valued features arise in a variety of applications, either in a direct way when preferences are elicited over a collection of items, or an indirect way in which numerical ratings are converted to a ranking. To date, there has been relatively limited study of regression, classification, and testing problems based on permutation-valued features, as opposed to permutation-valued responses. This paper studies the use of reproducing kernel Hilbert space methods for learning from permutation-valued features. These methods embed the rankings into an implicitly defined function space, and allow for efficient estimation of regression and test functions in this richer space. Our first contribution is to characterize both the feature spaces and spectral properties associated with two kernels for rankings, the Kendall and Mallows kernels. Using tools from representation theory, we explain the limited expressive power of the Kendall kernel by characterizing its degenerate spectrum, and in sharp contrast, we prove that Mallows' kernel is universal and characteristic. We also introduce families of polynomial kernels that interpolate between the Kendall (degree one) and Mallows' (infinite degree) kernels. We show the practical effectiveness of our methods via applications to Eurobarometer survey data as well as a Movielens ratings dataset.
Pairwise comparison data arises in many domains, including tournament rankings, web search, and preference elicitation. Given noisy comparisons of a fixed subset of pairs of items, we study the problem of estimating the underlying comparison probabilities under the assumption of strong stochastic transitivity (SST). We also consider the noisy sorting subclass of the SST model. We show that when the assignment of items to the topology is arbitrary, these permutation-based models, unlike their parametric counterparts, do not admit consistent estimation for most comparison topologies used in practice. We then demonstrate that consistent estimation is possible when the assignment of items to the topology is randomized, thus establishing a dichotomy between worst-case and average-case designs. We propose two estimators in the average-case setting and analyze their risk, showing that it depends on the comparison topology only through the degree sequence of the topology. The rates achieved by these estimators are shown to be optimal for a large class of graphs. Our results are corroborated by simulations on multiple comparison topologies.
The multivariate linear regression model with shuffled data and additive Gaussian noise arises in various correspondence estimation and matching problems. Focusing on the denoising aspect of this problem, we provide a characterization the minimax error rate that is sharp up to logarithmic factors. We also analyze the performance of two versions of a computationally efficient estimator, and establish their consistency for a large range of input parameters. Finally, we provide an exact algorithm for the noiseless problem and demonstrate its performance on an image point-cloud matching task. Our analysis also extends to datasets with outliers.
Slow mixing is the central hurdle when working with Markov chains, especially those used for Monte Carlo approximations (MCMC). In many applications, it is only of interest to estimate the stationary expectations of a small set of functions, and so the usual definition of mixing based on total variation convergence may be too conservative. Accordingly, we introduce function-specific analogs of mixing times and spectral gaps, and use them to prove Hoeffding-like function-specific concentration inequalities. These results show that it is possible for empirical expectations of functions to concentrate long before the underlying chain has mixed in the classical sense, and we show that the concentration rates we achieve are optimal up to constants. We use our techniques to derive confidence intervals that are sharper than those implied by both classical Markov chain Hoeffding bounds and Berry-Esseen-corrected CLT bounds. For applications that require testing, rather than point estimation, we show similar improvements over recent sequential testing results for MCMC. We conclude by applying our framework to real data examples of MCMC, providing evidence that our theory is both accurate and relevant to practice.