With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that attaches an explicit uncertainty statement to the probabilities of classification using deep neural networks. Precisely, we view that the classification probabilities are sampled from an unknown distribution, and we propose to learn this distribution through the Dirichlet mixture that is flexible enough for approximating any continuous distribution on the simplex. We then construct credible intervals from the learned distribution to assess the uncertainty of the classification probabilities. Our approach is easy to implement, computationally efficient, and can be coupled with any deep neural network architecture. Our method leverages the crucial observation that, in many classification applications such as medical diagnosis, more than one class labels are available for each observational unit. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach through simulations and a real data example.
We consider the problem of decomposition of multiway tensor with binary entries. Such data problems arise frequently in numerous applications such as neuroimaging, recommendation system, topic modeling, and sensor network localization. We propose that the observed binary entries follow a Bernoulli model, develop a rank-constrained likelihood-based estimation procedure, and obtain the theoretical accuracy guarantees. Specifically, we establish the error bound of the tensor estimation, and show that the obtained rate is minimax optimal under the considered model. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through both simulations and analyses of multiple real-world datasets on the tasks of tensor completion and clustering.
Dynamic tensor data are becoming prevalent in numerous applications. Existing tensor clustering methods either fail to account for the dynamic nature of the data, or are inapplicable to a general-order tensor. Also there is often a gap between statistical guarantee and computational efficiency for existing tensor clustering solutions. In this article, we aim to bridge this gap by proposing a new dynamic tensor clustering method, which takes into account both sparsity and fusion structures, and enjoys strong statistical guarantees as well as high computational efficiency. Our proposal is based upon a new structured tensor factorization that encourages both sparsity and smoothness in parameters along the specified tensor modes. Computationally, we develop a highly efficient optimization algorithm that benefits from substantial dimension reduction. In theory, we first establish a non-asymptotic error bound for the estimator from the structured tensor factorization. Built upon this error bound, we then derive the rate of convergence of the estimated cluster centers, and show that the estimated clusters recover the true cluster structures with a high probability. Moreover, our proposed method can be naturally extended to co-clustering of multiple modes of the tensor data. The efficacy of our approach is illustrated via simulations and a brain dynamic functional connectivity analysis from an Autism spectrum disorder study.
Motivated by applications in neuroimaging analysis, we propose a new regression model, Sparse TensOr REsponse regression (STORE), with a tensor response and a vector predictor. STORE embeds two key sparse structures: element-wise sparsity and low-rankness. It can handle both a non-symmetric and a symmetric tensor response, and thus is applicable to both structural and functional neuroimaging data. We formulate the parameter estimation as a non-convex optimization problem, and develop an efficient alternating updating algorithm. We establish a non-asymptotic estimation error bound for the actual estimator obtained from the proposed algorithm. This error bound reveals an interesting interaction between the computational efficiency and the statistical rate of convergence. When the distribution of the error tensor is Gaussian, we further obtain a fast estimation error rate which allows the tensor dimension to grow exponentially with the sample size. We illustrate the efficacy of our model through intensive simulations and an analysis of the Autism spectrum disorder neuroimaging data.