The beta distribution serves as a canonical tool for modeling probabilities and is extensively used in statistics and machine learning, especially in the field of Bayesian nonparametrics. Despite its widespread use, there is limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for modeling dependent random probabilities. We propose a novel stochastic process called the logistic-beta process, whose logistic transformation yields a stochastic process with common beta marginals. Similar to the Gaussian process, the logistic-beta process can model dependence on both discrete and continuous domains, such as space or time, and has a highly flexible dependence structure through correlation kernels. Moreover, its normal variance-mean mixture representation leads to highly effective posterior inference algorithms. The flexibility and computational benefits of logistic-beta processes are demonstrated through nonparametric binary regression simulation studies. Furthermore, we apply the logistic-beta process in modeling dependent Dirichlet processes, and illustrate its application and benefits through Bayesian density regression problems in a toxicology study.
Transfer learning is a burgeoning concept in statistical machine learning that seeks to improve inference and/or predictive accuracy on a domain of interest by leveraging data from related domains. While the term "transfer learning" has garnered much recent interest, its foundational principles have existed for years under various guises. Prior literature reviews in computer science and electrical engineering have sought to bring these ideas into focus, primarily surveying general methodologies and works from these disciplines. This article highlights Bayesian approaches to transfer learning, which have received relatively limited attention despite their innate compatibility with the notion of drawing upon prior knowledge to guide new learning tasks. Our survey encompasses a wide range of Bayesian transfer learning frameworks applicable to a variety of practical settings. We discuss how these methods address the problem of finding the optimal information to transfer between domains, which is a central question in transfer learning. We illustrate the utility of Bayesian transfer learning methods via a simulation study where we compare performance against frequentist competitors.
We develop a novel class of MCMC algorithms based on a stochastized Nesterov scheme. With an appropriate addition of noise, the result is a time-inhomogeneous underdamped Langevin equation, which we prove emits a specified target distribution as its invariant measure. Convergence rates to stationarity under Wasserstein-2 distance are established as well. Metropolis-adjusted and stochastic gradient versions of the proposed Langevin dynamics are also provided. Experimental illustrations show superior performance of the proposed method over typical Langevin samplers for different models in statistics and image processing including better mixing of the resulting Markov chains.
Gibbs posteriors are proportional to a prior distribution multiplied by an exponentiated loss function, with a key tuning parameter weighting information in the loss relative to the prior and providing a control of posterior uncertainty. Gibbs posteriors provide a principled framework for likelihood-free Bayesian inference, but in many situations, including a single tuning parameter inevitably leads to poor uncertainty quantification. In particular, regardless of the value of the parameter, credible regions have far from the nominal frequentist coverage even in large samples. We propose a sequential extension to Gibbs posteriors to address this problem. We prove the proposed sequential posterior exhibits concentration and a Bernstein-von Mises theorem, which holds under easy to verify conditions in Euclidean space and on manifolds. As a byproduct, we obtain the first Bernstein-von Mises theorem for traditional likelihood-based Bayesian posteriors on manifolds. All methods are illustrated with an application to principal component analysis.
Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty through the posterior distribution. Practical posterior computation is commonly performed via MCMC, which can be computationally infeasible for high dimensional models with many observations. In this article we discuss the potential to improve posterior computation using ideas from machine learning. Concrete future directions are explored in vignettes on normalizing flows, Bayesian coresets, distributed Bayesian inference, and variational inference.
We introduce an algorithm, Cayley transform ellipsoid fitting (CTEF), that uses the Cayley transform to fit ellipsoids to noisy data in any dimension. Unlike many ellipsoid fitting methods, CTEF is ellipsoid specific -- meaning it always returns elliptic solutions -- and can fit arbitrary ellipsoids. It also outperforms other fitting methods when data are not uniformly distributed over the surface of an ellipsoid. Inspired by calls for interpretable and reproducible methods in machine learning, we apply CTEF to dimension reduction, data visualization, and clustering. Since CTEF captures global curvature, it is able to extract nonlinear features in data that other methods fail to identify. This is illustrated in the context of dimension reduction on human cell cycle data, and in the context of clustering on classical toy examples. In the latter case, CTEF outperforms 10 popular clustering algorithms.
We propose a general scheme for solving convex and non-convex optimization problems on manifolds. The central idea is that, by adding a multiple of the squared retraction distance to the objective function in question, we "convexify" the objective function and solve a series of convex sub-problems in the optimization procedure. One of the key challenges for optimization on manifolds is the difficulty of verifying the complexity of the objective function, e.g., whether the objective function is convex or non-convex, and the degree of non-convexity. Our proposed algorithm adapts to the level of complexity in the objective function. We show that when the objective function is convex, the algorithm provably converges to the optimum and leads to accelerated convergence. When the objective function is non-convex, the algorithm will converge to a stationary point. Our proposed method unifies insights from Nesterov's original idea for accelerating gradient descent algorithms with recent developments in optimization algorithms in Euclidean space. We demonstrate the utility of our algorithms on several manifold optimization tasks such as estimating intrinsic and extrinsic Fr\'echet means on spheres and low-rank matrix factorization with Grassmann manifolds applied to the Netflix rating data set.
Stochastic block models (SBM) are widely used in network science due to their interpretable structure that allows inference on groups of nodes having common connectivity patterns. Although providing a well established model-based approach for community detection, such formulations are still the object of intense research to address the key problem of inferring the unknown number of communities. This has motivated the development of several probabilistic mechanisms to characterize the node partition process, covering solutions with fixed, random and infinite number of communities. In this article we provide a unified view of all these formulations within a single extended stochastic block model (ESBM), that relies on Gibbs-type processes and encompasses most existing representations as special cases. Connections with Bayesian nonparametric literature open up new avenues that allow the natural inclusion of several unexplored options to model the nodes partition process and to incorporate node attributes in a principled manner. Among these new alternatives, we focus on the Gnedin process as an example of a probabilistic mechanism with desirable theoretical properties and nice empirical performance. A collapsed Gibbs sampler that can be applied to the whole ESBM class is proposed, and refined methods for estimation, uncertainty quantification and model assessment are outlined. The performance of ESBM is assessed in simulations and an application to bill co-sponsorship networks in the Italian parliament, where we find key hidden block structures and core-periphery patterns.
Loss-based clustering methods, such as k-means and its variants, are standard tools for finding groups in data. However, the lack of quantification of uncertainty in the estimated clusters is a disadvantage. Model-based clustering based on mixture models provides an alternative, but such methods face computational problems and large sensitivity to the choice of kernel. This article proposes a generalized Bayes framework that bridges between these two paradigms through the use of Gibbs posteriors. In conducting Bayesian updating, the log likelihood is replaced by a loss function for clustering, leading to a rich family of clustering methods. The Gibbs posterior represents a coherent updating of Bayesian beliefs without needing to specify a likelihood for the data, and can be used for characterizing uncertainty in clustering. We consider losses based on Bregman divergence and pairwise similarities, and develop efficient deterministic algorithms for point estimation along with sampling algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Several existing clustering algorithms, including k-means, can be interpreted as generalized Bayes estimators under our framework, and hence we provide a method of uncertainty quantification for these approaches.
Classification algorithms face difficulties when one or more classes have limited training data. We are particularly interested in classification trees, due to their interpretability and flexibility. When data are limited in one or more of the classes, the estimated decision boundaries are often irregularly shaped due to the limited sample size, leading to poor generalization error. We propose a novel approach that penalizes the Surface-to-Volume Ratio (SVR) of the decision set, obtaining a new class of SVR-Tree algorithms. We develop a simple and computationally efficient implementation while proving estimation and feature selection consistency for SVR-Tree. SVR-Tree is compared with multiple algorithms that are designed to deal with imbalance through real data applications.