This paper introduces a new, highly consequential setting for the use of computer vision for environmental sustainability. Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) (aka intensive livestock farms or "factory farms") produce significant manure and pollution. Dumping manure in the winter months poses significant environmental risks and violates environmental law in many states. Yet the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state agencies have relied primarily on self-reporting to monitor such instances of "land application." Our paper makes four contributions. First, we introduce the environmental, policy, and agricultural setting of CAFOs and land application. Second, we provide a new dataset of high-cadence (daily to weekly) 3m/pixel satellite imagery from 2018-20 for 330 CAFOs in Wisconsin with hand labeled instances of land application (n=57,697). Third, we develop an object detection model to predict land application and a system to perform inference in near real-time. We show that this system effectively appears to detect land application (PR AUC = 0.93) and we uncover several outlier facilities which appear to apply regularly and excessively. Last, we estimate the population prevalence of land application events in Winter 2021/22. We show that the prevalence of land application is much higher than what is self-reported by facilities. The system can be used by environmental regulators and interest groups, one of which piloted field visits based on this system this past winter. Overall, our application demonstrates the potential for AI-based computer vision systems to solve major problems in environmental compliance with near-daily imagery.
One concern with the rise of large language models lies with their potential for significant harm, particularly from pretraining on biased, obscene, copyrighted, and private information. Emerging ethical approaches have attempted to filter pretraining material, but such approaches have been ad hoc and failed to take into account context. We offer an approach to filtering grounded in law, which has directly addressed the tradeoffs in filtering material. First, we gather and make available the Pile of Law, a 256GB (and growing) dataset of open-source English-language legal and administrative data, covering court opinions, contracts, administrative rules, and legislative records. Pretraining on the Pile of Law may potentially help with legal tasks that have the promise to improve access to justice. Second, we distill the legal norms that governments have developed to constrain the inclusion of toxic or private content into actionable lessons for researchers and discuss how our dataset reflects these norms. Third, we show how the Pile of Law offers researchers the opportunity to learn such filtering rules directly from the data, providing an exciting new research direction in model-based processing.
This study examines issues of algorithmic fairness in the context of systems that inform tax audit selection by the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS). While the field of algorithmic fairness has developed primarily around notions of treating like individuals alike, we instead explore the concept of vertical equity -- appropriately accounting for relevant differences across individuals -- which is a central component of fairness in many public policy settings. Applied to the design of the U.S. individual income tax system, vertical equity relates to the fair allocation of tax and enforcement burdens across taxpayers of different income levels. Through a unique collaboration with the Treasury Department and IRS, we use access to anonymized individual taxpayer microdata, risk-selected audits, and random audits from 2010-14 to study vertical equity in tax administration. In particular, we assess how the use of modern machine learning methods for selecting audits may affect vertical equity. First, we show how the use of more flexible machine learning (classification) methods -- as opposed to simpler models -- shifts audit burdens from high to middle-income taxpayers. Second, we show that while existing algorithmic fairness techniques can mitigate some disparities across income, they can incur a steep cost to performance. Third, we show that the choice of whether to treat risk of underreporting as a classification or regression problem is highly consequential. Moving from classification to regression models to predict underreporting shifts audit burden substantially toward high income individuals, while increasing revenue. Last, we explore the role of differential audit cost in shaping the audit distribution. We show that a narrow focus on return-on-investment can undermine vertical equity. Our results have implications for the design of algorithmic tools across the public sector.
We introduce a new setting, optimize-and-estimate structured bandits. Here, a policy must select a batch of arms, each characterized by its own context, that would allow it to both maximize reward and maintain an accurate (ideally unbiased) population estimate of the reward. This setting is inherent to many public and private sector applications and often requires handling delayed feedback, small data, and distribution shifts. We demonstrate its importance on real data from the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The IRS performs yearly audits of the tax base. Two of its most important objectives are to identify suspected misreporting and to estimate the "tax gap" - the global difference between the amount paid and true amount owed. We cast these two processes as a unified optimize-and-estimate structured bandit. We provide a novel mechanism for unbiased population estimation that achieves rewards comparable to baseline approaches. This approach has the potential to improve audit efficacy, while maintaining policy-relevant estimates of the tax gap. This has important social consequences given that the current tax gap is estimated at nearly half a trillion dollars. We suggest that this problem setting is fertile ground for further research and we highlight its interesting challenges.
Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) pose serious risks to air, water, and public health, but have proven to be challenging to regulate. The U.S. Government Accountability Office notes that a basic challenge is the lack of comprehensive location information on CAFOs. We use the USDA's National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) 1m/pixel aerial imagery to detect poultry CAFOs across the continental United States. We train convolutional neural network (CNN) models to identify individual poultry barns and apply the best performing model to over 42 TB of imagery to create the first national, open-source dataset of poultry CAFOs. We validate the model predictions against held-out validation set on poultry CAFO facility locations from 10 hand-labeled counties in California and demonstrate that this approach has significant potential to fill gaps in environmental monitoring.
In many public health settings, there is a perceived tension between allocating resources to known vulnerable areas and learning about the overall prevalence of the problem. Inspired by a door-to-door Covid-19 testing program we helped design, we combine multi-armed bandit strategies and insights from sampling theory to demonstrate how to recover accurate prevalence estimates while continuing to allocate resources to at-risk areas. We use the outbreak of an infectious disease as our running example. The public health setting has several characteristics distinguishing it from typical bandit settings, such as distribution shift (the true disease prevalence is changing with time) and batched sampling (multiple decisions must be made simultaneously). Nevertheless, we demonstrate that several bandit algorithms are capable out-performing greedy resource allocation strategies, which often perform worse than random allocation as they fail to notice outbreaks in new areas.
AI is undergoing a paradigm shift with the rise of models (e.g., BERT, DALL-E, GPT-3) that are trained on broad data at scale and are adaptable to a wide range of downstream tasks. We call these models foundation models to underscore their critically central yet incomplete character. This report provides a thorough account of the opportunities and risks of foundation models, ranging from their capabilities (e.g., language, vision, robotics, reasoning, human interaction) and technical principles(e.g., model architectures, training procedures, data, systems, security, evaluation, theory) to their applications (e.g., law, healthcare, education) and societal impact (e.g., inequity, misuse, economic and environmental impact, legal and ethical considerations). Though foundation models are based on standard deep learning and transfer learning, their scale results in new emergent capabilities,and their effectiveness across so many tasks incentivizes homogenization. Homogenization provides powerful leverage but demands caution, as the defects of the foundation model are inherited by all the adapted models downstream. Despite the impending widespread deployment of foundation models, we currently lack a clear understanding of how they work, when they fail, and what they are even capable of due to their emergent properties. To tackle these questions, we believe much of the critical research on foundation models will require deep interdisciplinary collaboration commensurate with their fundamentally sociotechnical nature.
Lawyers and judges spend a large amount of time researching the proper legal authority to cite while drafting decisions. In this paper, we develop a citation recommendation tool that can help improve efficiency in the process of opinion drafting. We train four types of machine learning models, including a citation-list based method (collaborative filtering) and three context-based methods (text similarity, BiLSTM and RoBERTa classifiers). Our experiments show that leveraging local textual context improves recommendation, and that deep neural models achieve decent performance. We show that non-deep text-based methods benefit from access to structured case metadata, but deep models only benefit from such access when predicting from context of insufficient length. We also find that, even after extensive training, RoBERTa does not outperform a recurrent neural model, despite its benefits of pretraining. Our behavior analysis of the RoBERTa model further shows that predictive performance is stable across time and citation classes.
Environmental enforcement has historically relied on physical, resource-intensive, and infrequent inspections. Advances in remote sensing and computer vision have the potential to augment compliance monitoring, by providing early warning signals of permit violations. We demonstrate a process for rapid identification of significant structural expansion using satellite imagery and focusing on Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) as a test case. Unpermitted expansion has been a particular challenge with CAFOs, which pose significant health and environmental risks. Using a new hand-labeled dataset of 175,736 images of 1,513 CAFOs, we combine state-of-the-art building segmentation with a likelihood-based change-point detection model to provide a robust signal of building expansion (AUC = 0.80). A major advantage of this approach is that it is able to work with high-cadence (daily to weekly), but lower resolution (3m/pixel), satellite imagery. It is also highly generalizable and thus provides a near real-time monitoring tool to prioritize enforcement resources to other settings where unpermitted construction poses environmental risk, e.g. zoning, habitat modification, or wetland protection.