Deep learning has proven effective across a range of data sets. In light of this, a natural inquiry is: "for what data generating processes can deep learning succeed?" In this work, we study the sample complexity of learning multilayer data generating processes of a sort for which deep neural networks seem to be suited. We develop general and elegant information-theoretic tools that accommodate analysis of any data generating process -- shallow or deep, parametric or nonparametric, noiseless or noisy. We then use these tools to characterize the dependence of sample complexity on the depth of multilayer processes. Our results indicate roughly linear dependence on depth. This is in contrast to previous results that suggest exponential or high-order polynomial dependence.
Ensemble sampling serves as a practical approximation to Thompson sampling when maintaining an exact posterior distribution over model parameters is computationally intractable. In this paper, we establish a Bayesian regret bound that ensures desirable behavior when ensemble sampling is applied to the linear bandit problem. This represents the first rigorous regret analysis of ensemble sampling and is made possible by leveraging information-theoretic concepts and novel analytic techniques that may prove useful beyond the scope of this paper.
Most work on supervised learning research has focused on marginal predictions. In decision problems, joint predictive distributions are essential for good performance. Previous work has developed methods for assessing low-order predictive distributions with inputs sampled i.i.d. from the testing distribution. With low-dimensional inputs, these methods distinguish agents that effectively estimate uncertainty from those that do not. We establish that the predictive distribution order required for such differentiation increases greatly with input dimension, rendering these methods impractical. To accommodate high-dimensional inputs, we introduce \textit{dyadic sampling}, which focuses on predictive distributions associated with random \textit{pairs} of inputs. We demonstrate that this approach efficiently distinguishes agents in high-dimensional examples involving simple logistic regression as well as complex synthetic and empirical data.
Assuming distributions are Gaussian often facilitates computations that are otherwise intractable. We study the performance of an agent that attains a bounded information ratio with respect to a bandit environment with a Gaussian prior distribution and a Gaussian likelihood function when applied instead to a Bernoulli bandit. Relative to an information-theoretic bound on the Bayesian regret the agent would incur when interacting with the Gaussian bandit, we bound the increase in regret when the agent interacts with the Bernoulli bandit. If the Gaussian prior distribution and likelihood function are sufficiently diffuse, this increase grows at a rate which is at most linear in the square-root of the time horizon, and thus the per-timestep increase vanishes. Our results formalize the folklore that so-called Bayesian agents remain effective when instantiated with diffuse misspecified distributions.
All sequential decision-making agents explore so as to acquire knowledge about a particular target. It is often the responsibility of the agent designer to construct this target which, in rich and complex environments, constitutes a onerous burden; without full knowledge of the environment itself, a designer may forge a sub-optimal learning target that poorly balances the amount of information an agent must acquire to identify the target against the target's associated performance shortfall. While recent work has developed a connection between learning targets and rate-distortion theory to address this challenge and empower agents that decide what to learn in an automated fashion, the proposed algorithm does not optimally tackle the equally important challenge of efficient information acquisition. In this work, building upon the seminal design principle of information-directed sampling (Russo & Van Roy, 2014), we address this shortcoming directly to couple optimal information acquisition with the optimal design of learning targets. Along the way, we offer new insights into learning targets from the literature on rate-distortion theory before turning to empirical results that confirm the value of information when deciding what to learn.
Posterior predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces \textit{The Neural Testbed}, which provides tools for the systematic evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, these tools assess not only the quality of marginal predictions per input, but also joint predictions given many inputs. Joint distributions are often critical for useful uncertainty quantification, but they have been largely overlooked by the Bayesian deep learning community. We benchmark several approaches to uncertainty estimation using a neural-network-based data generating process. Our results reveal the importance of evaluation beyond marginal predictions. Further, they reconcile sources of confusion in the field, such as why Bayesian deep learning approaches that generate accurate marginal predictions perform poorly in sequential decision tasks, how incorporating priors can be helpful, and what roles epistemic versus aleatoric uncertainty play when evaluating performance. We also present experiments on real-world challenge datasets, which show a high correlation with testbed results, and that the importance of evaluating joint predictive distributions carries over to real data. As part of this effort, we opensource The Neural Testbed, including all implementations from this paper.
We investigate the design of recommendation systems that can efficiently learn from sparse and delayed feedback. Deep Exploration can play an important role in such contexts, enabling a recommendation system to much more quickly assess a user's needs and personalize service. We design an algorithm based on Thompson Sampling that carries out Deep Exploration. We demonstrate through simulations that the algorithm can substantially amplify the rate of positive feedback relative to common recommendation system designs in a scalable fashion. These results demonstrate promise that we hope will inspire engineering of production recommendation systems that leverage Deep Exploration.
A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs $X_1,..,X_\tau$ can you predict outcomes $Y_1,.., Y_\tau$. The KL divergence $\mathbf{d}_{\mathrm{KL}}$ provides a natural measure of prediction quality, but the majority of deep learning research looks only at the marginal predictions per input $X_t$. In this technical report we propose a scoring rule $\mathbf{d}_{\mathrm{KL}}^\tau$, parameterized by $\tau \in \mathcal{N}$ that evaluates the joint predictions at $\tau$ inputs simultaneously. We show that the commonly-used $\tau=1$ can be insufficient to drive good decisions in many settings of interest. We also show that, as $\tau$ grows, performing well according to $\mathbf{d}_{\mathrm{KL}}^\tau$ recovers universal guarantees for any possible decision. Finally, we provide problem-dependent guidance on the scale of $\tau$ for which our score provides sufficient guarantees for good performance.
We introduce the \textit{epistemic neural network} (ENN) as an interface for uncertainty modeling in deep learning. All existing approaches to uncertainty modeling can be expressed as ENNs, and any ENN can be identified with a Bayesian neural network. However, this new perspective provides several promising directions for future research. Where prior work has developed probabilistic inference tools for neural networks; we ask instead, `which neural networks are suitable as tools for probabilistic inference?'. We propose a clear and simple metric for progress in ENNs: the KL-divergence with respect to a target distribution. We develop a computational testbed based on inference in a neural network Gaussian process and release our code as a benchmark at \url{https://github.com/deepmind/enn}. We evaluate several canonical approaches to uncertainty modeling in deep learning, and find they vary greatly in their performance. We provide insight to the sensitivity of these results and show that our metric is highly correlated with performance in sequential decision problems. Finally, we provide indications that new ENN architectures can improve performance in both the statistical quality and computational cost.