Advancing probabilistic solar forecasting methods is essential to supporting the integration of solar energy into the electricity grid. In this work, we develop a variety of state-of-the-art probabilistic models for forecasting solar irradiance. We investigate the use of post-hoc calibration techniques for ensuring well-calibrated probabilistic predictions. We train and evaluate the models using public data from seven stations in the SURFRAD network, and demonstrate that the best model, NGBoost, achieves higher performance at an intra-hourly resolution than the best benchmark solar irradiance forecasting model across all stations. Further, we show that NGBoost with CRUDE post-hoc calibration achieves comparable performance to a numerical weather prediction model on hourly-resolution forecasting.
Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Though histologically DLBCL shows varying morphologies, no morphologic features have been consistently demonstrated to correlate with prognosis. We present a morphologic analysis of histology sections from 209 DLBCL cases with associated clinical and cytogenetic data. Duplicate tissue core sections were arranged in tissue microarrays (TMAs), and replicate sections were stained with H&E and immunohistochemical stains for CD10, BCL6, MUM1, BCL2, and MYC. The TMAs are accompanied by pathologist-annotated regions-of-interest (ROIs) that identify areas of tissue representative of DLBCL. We used a deep learning model to segment all tumor nuclei in the ROIs, and computed several geometric features for each segmented nucleus. We fit a Cox proportional hazards model to demonstrate the utility of these geometric features in predicting survival outcome, and found that it achieved a C-index (95% CI) of 0.635 (0.574,0.691). Our finding suggests that geometric features computed from tumor nuclei are of prognostic importance, and should be validated in prospective studies.
Clinical deployment of deep learning algorithms for chest x-ray interpretation requires a solution that can integrate into the vast spectrum of clinical workflows across the world. An appealing solution to scaled deployment is to leverage the existing ubiquity of smartphones: in several parts of the world, clinicians and radiologists capture photos of chest x-rays to share with other experts or clinicians via smartphone using messaging services like WhatsApp. However, the application of chest x-ray algorithms to photos of chest x-rays requires reliable classification in the presence of smartphone photo artifacts such as screen glare and poor viewing angle not typically encountered on digital x-rays used to train machine learning models. We introduce CheXphoto, a dataset of smartphone photos and synthetic photographic transformations of chest x-rays sampled from the CheXpert dataset. To generate CheXphoto we (1) automatically and manually captured photos of digital x-rays under different settings, including various lighting conditions and locations, and, (2) generated synthetic transformations of digital x-rays targeted to make them look like photos of digital x-rays and x-ray films. We release this dataset as a resource for testing and improving the robustness of deep learning algorithms for automated chest x-ray interpretation on smartphone photos of chest x-rays.
Learning disentangled representations is regarded as a fundamental task for improving the generalization, robustness, and interpretability of generative models. However, measuring disentanglement has been challenging and inconsistent, often dependent on an ad-hoc external model or specific to a certain dataset. To address this, we present a method for quantifying disentanglement that only uses the generative model, by measuring the topological similarity of conditional submanifolds in the learned representation. This method showcases both unsupervised and supervised variants. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of our method, we empirically evaluate several state-of-the-art models across multiple datasets. We find that our method ranks models similarly to existing methods.
The extraction of labels from radiology text reports enables large-scale training of medical imaging models. Existing approaches to report labeling typically rely either on sophisticated feature engineering based on medical domain knowledge or manual annotations by experts. In this work, we introduce a BERT-based approach to medical image report labeling that exploits both the scale of available rule-based systems and the quality of expert annotations. We demonstrate superior performance of a biomedically pretrained BERT model first trained on annotations of a rule-based labeler and then finetuned on a small set of expert annotations augmented with automated backtranslation. We find that our final model, CheXbert, is able to outperform the previous best rules-based labeler with statistical significance, setting a new SOTA for report labeling on one of the largest datasets of chest x-rays.
Although there have been several recent advances in the application of deep learning algorithms to chest x-ray interpretation, we identify three major challenges for the translation of chest x-ray algorithms to the clinical setting. We examine the performance of the top 10 performing models on the CheXpert challenge leaderboard on three tasks: (1) TB detection, (2) pathology detection on photos of chest x-rays, and (3) pathology detection on data from an external institution. First, we find that the top 10 chest x-ray models on the CheXpert competition achieve an average AUC of 0.851 on the task of detecting TB on two public TB datasets without fine-tuning or including the TB labels in training data. Second, we find that the average performance of the models on photos of x-rays (AUC = 0.916) is similar to their performance on the original chest x-ray images (AUC = 0.924). Third, we find that the models tested on an external dataset either perform comparably to or exceed the average performance of radiologists. We believe that our investigation will inform rapid translation of deep learning algorithms to safe and effective clinical decision support tools that can be validated prospectively with large impact studies and clinical trials.